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Author Topic: Portugal's politics and elections (PSD leadership race: 13 Jan 2018)  (Read 58881 times)
Lord Halifax
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« Reply #375 on: July 17, 2017, 02:56:05 pm »
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How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?

He originally came from the right and was tough on law & order as Minister of Justice. He just moved left tactically to get a shot at the leadership.
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« Reply #376 on: July 17, 2017, 02:59:33 pm »
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How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?
Not as much factional as the PSD but a bit yes. You can divide the PS into 2 factions: the moderate wing and left wing where the "Young Turks" from the PS proliferate. The moderate wing are old fashion Socialists who support more talks with the PSD and don't see with good eyes the recent approach to BE and CDU. The left faction doesn't like the PSD one bit and refuse major compromises with them. They much prefer a more "leftwing" PS which can be supported especially by the BE, but also CDU.

Believe it or not but Costa wasn't always from the left faction. He comes from a generation of PS politicians formed during the Guterres government (1995-2002), who were much more willing to negotiate with the PSD rather than BE or CDU. He was very moderate and even liked by many PSD politicians but the circumstances changed in 2015, and the PS desperate need to be in power plus the fear of CDU and BE of less power in unions and in the public sector made Costa to go leftwing.

At the beginning many people in the PS were angry at him for negotiating a government with BE and CDU, Francisco Assis was one of the most vocal, but as the economy grew, the deficit continued controlled and the PS rise in the polls, most criticism has vanished and Costa doesn't have much opposition within his party. Now, do many like what his doing? No, but criticising him right now isn't very wise.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 03:01:44 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #377 on: July 18, 2017, 09:55:22 am »
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Also, a small controversy is haunting the PSD/CDS candidate for Loures (Lisbon district), André Ventura. In an interview, Mr Ventura said that the gypsy community lives only from social care and government subsidies. This created a lot of criticism from the left, particularly the BE, but also from within the PSD and CDS. Mr. Ventura later said he has nothing against the gypsy community but doesn't tolerate those who break the law and are not punished just for being different. Nonetheless, the PSD has condemn such remarks.

It seems that the CDS has decided to withdrew their support for André Ventura after his controversial statements. The party will now present their own candidate for Loures. It seems that race discussion is here to stay in Portugal. After the 18 police officers charged for racism, which sparked a debate about Afro-Portuguese integration, and these statements from the PSD candidate, race integration in Portugal should be a very important political topic. Unfortunately for us, what Mr. Ventura said isn't wrong. Only his tone is wrong. The gypsy community in Portugal, in it's majority, is not well integrated in society so many are left out and only survive by living in social care. Therefore this lack of integration creates clusters of social housing around the big cities where the people living in it, many from other races, live in very poorly conditions, some even in poverty, and apart from the rest of society.

Racism and race exclusion in Portugal is real and politicians should talk about and not be afraid to discuss it. Mr Ventura tone was horribly wrong, but at same time, his right... unfortunately.
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« Reply #378 on: July 19, 2017, 12:52:26 pm »
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How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?
Not as much factional as the PSD but a bit yes. You can divide the PS into 2 factions: the moderate wing and left wing where the "Young Turks" from the PS proliferate. The moderate wing are old fashion Socialists who support more talks with the PSD and don't see with good eyes the recent approach to BE and CDU. The left faction doesn't like the PSD one bit and refuse major compromises with them. They much prefer a more "leftwing" PS which can be supported especially by the BE, but also CDU.

Believe it or not but Costa wasn't always from the left faction. He comes from a generation of PS politicians formed during the Guterres government (1995-2002), who were much more willing to negotiate with the PSD rather than BE or CDU. He was very moderate and even liked by many PSD politicians but the circumstances changed in 2015, and the PS desperate need to be in power plus the fear of CDU and BE of less power in unions and in the public sector made Costa to go leftwing.

At the beginning many people in the PS were angry at him for negotiating a government with BE and CDU, Francisco Assis was one of the most vocal, but as the economy grew, the deficit continued controlled and the PS rise in the polls, most criticism has vanished and Costa doesn't have much opposition within his party. Now, do many like what his doing? No, but criticising him right now isn't very wise.

Mike88, who would you say is the highest profile person in the PS's moderate wing?

It's hard to pin Costa down, yet even as he seems to be moving back to the moderate wing in governance, I wouldn't quite call him a moderate. So, I mean besides him. Perhaps Fernando Medina?
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Mike88
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« Reply #379 on: July 19, 2017, 01:25:51 pm »
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Mike88, who would you say is the highest profile person in the PS's moderate wing?

It's hard to pin Costa down, yet even as he seems to be moving back to the moderate wing in governance, I wouldn't quite call him a moderate. So, I mean besides him. Perhaps Fernando Medina?

The moderate wing of the PS is quite silenced. Mainly because Costa swings left and right almost every week. If i had to name some of high profile moderate PS politicians i would say Francisco Assis, Vital Moreira, Rui Pereira or Luís Amado, but there isn't an alternative moderate leader inside the PS. That may be a problem for the PS in the long term when Costa, inevitably, becomes a lame duck because many potential PS leaders are very leftwing. People like João Galamba or Pedro Nuno Santos are from the "Young Turks" of the PS.

Fernando Medina... well, many people talk about him as a future PS leader, some even called him the "golden boy" of the PS, but i don't know.. His tenure, since 2015, as Lisbon mayor wasn't very surprising, he basically governed under the shadow of António Costa legacy. He has a very important test in the fall local elections. If he maintains the PS majority in Lisbon, he may have a future but if he fails... well, he's history.

Honestly, António Costa is neither moderate nor leftwing. He basically goes with the flow. He may be moderate on Monday, fiscally conservative on Tuesday, full blown left-wing on Wednesday and moderate again on Thursday and Friday.
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« Reply #380 on: July 20, 2017, 10:19:59 am »
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Some good news for the PSD:

In Ribeira da Pena (Vila Real District), the incumbent PS mayor, Rui Vaz Alves, has withdraw from the race citing he doesn't have the necessary conditions to run for reelection. The PS will nominate a new candidate in the next few days. This might be excellent news for the PSD. They choose the former mayor of Ribeira da Pena, Agostinho Pinto, to run this time. He was barred from running in 2013 due to term limitations but he was very popular during his tenure, winning election with around 60% of vote. This could be a PSD gain.

On the other hand, in Vidigueira (Beja District) the PSD/CDS candidate, Guido Pires, also withdraw from the race. The PSD will nominate a new candidate in the next few days, but here the impact is basically null because in 2013 the PSD/CDS only won 7% of the votes. The race will be decided between PS and CDU, but CDU has the upper hand here, as the PS, since 1976, only won 2 elections here.
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« Reply #381 on: July 21, 2017, 07:27:02 am »
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Poll for Funchal by Eurosondagem: (compared with January poll)

42.5% PS/BE/JPP/PDR/NC (-5.5)
30.8% PSD (+5.0)
10.0% CDS (+1.3)
  5.5% Ind/PPM/PURP (-0.5)
  5.0% CDU (-1.3)
  1.2% MPT
  0.8% PTP
  4.2% Blank/Invalid

This poll has good and bad news for both PS and PSD. The good news for PS is that their still in the lead, and the bad news for the PSD is their second place. But the trend seems favourable for the PSD. In comparison with the January poll, there was a 10 point swing against the PS, and that is favouring the PSD candidate. If the trend continues, the Funchal mayoral race could be quite close. I'm still saying this one is a Tossup. It can go either for the PS or PSD.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 07:28:55 am by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #382 on: July 21, 2017, 07:59:31 pm »
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A little bit of comic relief...

The best campaign poster, till date, for the October elections:


Quote
I'm a candidate.

Cool  Grin

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Mike88
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« Reply #383 on: July 22, 2017, 01:45:05 pm »
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Update on the local elections:

The final deadline to submit candidacies, August 8th, is approaching and most candidates are already in pre-campaign mode.

Right now, the candidacies, by party, already announced are as follow:

297 PS*
297 PSD*
201 CDU
  90 CDS*
  87 BE
  18 PAN
    6 PTP
  12 MPT
  11 PNR
    2 PPM
    5 JPP
    1 L/TDA
    4 PDR
    7 NC
    1 PPV/CDC
    1 MAS
  75 Independent

PCTP, and PURP are the only parties that haven't announced any candidates, but they might deliver some candidacies before or on August 8th.

*PS, PSD and CDS have celebrated many coalitions with other smaller parties and, some, between PSD/CDS. Right now, with the date available, the coalitions formed are as follow:

191 PSD alone
  73 PSD/CDS
  13 PSD/CDS/MPT/PPM
    5 PSD/CDS/PPM
    5 PSD/CDS/MPT
    4 PSD/PPM
    4 PSD/MPT
    1 PSD/MPT/PPM
    1 PSD/NC

295 PS alone
    1 PS/JPP
    1 PS/BE/JPP/PDR/NC

  65 CDS alone
    4 CDS/PSD
  10 CDS/PPM/MPT
    7 CDS/PPM
    2 CDS/MPT
    1 CDS/NC/PPM
    1 CDS/NC

The number of PSD/CDS coalitions is the highest ever, reaching 100 candidacies. That number may increase a bit in the next few days when many candidacies final lists are unveiled. The number of candidacies for other parties/Independent movements may also increase dramatically in the next few days as many parties start submitting candidacies to local courts across the country.
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« Reply #384 on: July 26, 2017, 01:47:43 pm »
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The political environment is getting worse and worse by the day:

Wildfires have been destroying forests almost every day. After the Pedrógão Grande disaster, a number of wildfires are currently out of control. Many villages have been evacuated, firefighters have little help by the government, Spain is sending, again, airplanes and firefighters to help in the combat of the fires, but, on top of all of this, a few horrible decisions by the government are creating a storm between the opposition and the government.

First, it was the decision to concentrate all information about the wildfires in Lisbon. The now called "Lei da Rolha" (Stopwatch Law) is criticized by basically everybody from firefighters, population in the affected areas and by the media. With this law, the government controls, they think, the coverage of the wildfire season but the media is hitting hard the government and, especially, António Costa. Pundits are asking why is the government so stupid to go ahead with this policy, with some even suggesting this is a return to the censorship times. Because of this "law" many bad informations about the wildfires is being left out, but step by step the media is reporting those bad news.

Second, there was macabre scandal about the "Death list" of the Pedrógão Grande disaster. Last weekend, newspapers started reporting that the list of victims of the Pedrógão disaster was unavailable and in secret, adding also that the list may be incomplete. Expresso newspaper said the death toll was 65, Sol and I newspapers said it could reach 88. This created a huge political storm with the PSD demanding the government to publish the list in 24 hours, with the government responding that they cannot publish the list because it's in the hands of the DA office. At the same, the PS/BE/CDU attacked the PSD/CDS for using the list to attack the government. The list was eventually released on the night of 25th July by the DA.

And third, the attitude of the PM has been very criticized. António Costa is changing his statements by the hour, having one message in the morning and a different one in the afternoon. The constant flip-flopping of Costa is becoming a habit and a real lack of leadership in the government is a certainty right now.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 02:02:29 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #385 on: July 27, 2017, 07:39:03 pm »
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Somewhat good news for the PS, bad news for PSD:

The PSD candidate for Tomar (Santarém district), has withdrawn from the race after unveiling he was diagnosed with cancer. Luís Boavida, says he's heartbroken with this decision, but he will have to go throw harsh treatments that would hurt the campaign. The PSD is now looking for another candidate.

I was predicting Tomar to be a Tossup in my latest forecast but after this setback for the PSD, Tomar seems to me that it will go to the PS. So, Tomar is Safe PS.

Additional info, the results from Tomar in 2013 were quite close:

27.6% PS
26.1% PSD
15.6% Independent
  9.2% CDU
  6.9% MPT
  2.9% BE
  2.8% CDS
  8.9% Blank/Invalid

53.3% Turnout
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« Reply #386 on: July 28, 2017, 10:54:34 am »
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Independent candidate for Amarante (Porto district), Avelino Ferreira Torres, quits and announces his support for the incumbent PSD/CDS mayor.


Avelino Ferreira Torres during a campaign event.

Avelino Ferreira Torres, independent candidate for Amarante, announced yesterday he will withdraw his candidacy for Amarante mayor due to health issues and for not having enough energy to lead the campaign. Mr. Torres suffered from a depression a few years ago and he had recovered, but it now appears he hasn't fully recovered.

He will now support the incumbent mayor, and PSD/CDS candidate, José Luís Gaspar as he, according to Mr. Torres, has similar ideas and goals as him. In my predictions i posted that Amarante was leaning PSD/CDS, but now i believe it has become a very Safe PSD/CDS.
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« Reply #387 on: July 28, 2017, 12:02:09 pm »
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IPOM poll for Chaves (Vila Real district), 41,200 inhabitants; (PSD incumbent):

53.2% PSD
34.3% PS
  6.6% CDU
  2.5% CDS
  0.6% BE
  3.0% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July. Polled 714 voters in Chaves municipality. MoE of 3.70%.

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« Reply #388 on: July 31, 2017, 01:15:44 pm »
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A very long, but interesting, interview of the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, to Diário de Notícias newspaper is dominating the political scene and pundits and commentators are seeing in the interview that Marcelo may be distancing himself from Costa and his government. Is the honeymoon between the PM and PR over? Many are saying that yes.


Costa and Marcelo. Is the honeymoon over? Pundits are saying yes.

The interview was quite long, as it covered a wide range of topics like Trump, Venezuela or the Angolan elections but it was Marcelo's somewhat ambiguity and refusal to defend Costa and his government on some topics, plus some direct warnings to the PSD and Passos Coelho, that are creating the sense that the President wants to distance himself from Costa and wants the PSD to get their act together.

Expresso newspaper made, in my opinion, a very good decoding of the interview in 10 subtitles, and here are the main subtitles:

1. I support Costa because that's my duty. But that doesn't mean i like him.
3. I will never dissolve parliament.
4. Passos Coelho is a dead man walking. But you will never hear me say it.
5. PS/PSD agreement? Only if there's an emergency.
10. Don't like my style? Deal with it.

Normally Presidents and PM get on a good start but by the middle of the term, things start to get bad. A few examples, Cavaco Silva and Mário Soares started well but after Cavaco's 1987 landslide victory, the relation between both men got worse year after year. And it only ended in 1995; Sampaio and Guterres also started well but by 1999 things weren't so well. Sampaio was vetoing many laws and refusing to sworn in many ministers nominated by Guterres; Cavaco and Sócrates, both started well but by 2007 hell breaks loose. Accusations of spying by the President plus a very awful personal relationship between the PR and PM, made the political mood very bad. It's also a time when opposition parties normally, either PS or PSD, put their act together and start to prepare for power again. Will see what happens in the next few months.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2017, 01:18:01 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #389 on: August 01, 2017, 10:45:49 am »
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A very good example of how Portuguese politics is "out of this world" right now, is the Lisbon/Porto EMA (European Medicines Agency) bid.

Politico has a very good article about it:

Portuguese politics cripples Lisbon’s EU agency bid. 



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Mike88
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« Reply #390 on: August 02, 2017, 02:49:25 pm »
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After some posts regarding the different wings of both PS and PSD, i realised that i never made a full introduction of the parties registered in Portugal. And because in just 1 month and 29 days, we will go to the polls to elect new local representatives, i've decided to make an introduction to the parties that will submit at least one candidacy for the October 1st local elections. And here they are:


Partido Socialista (PS)
Leader: António Costa

A normal social democratic party, member of PES and International Socialist founded in 1973. The PS is the main center-left party in Portugal. The party swings regularly between the center to the center-left depending on the leader they have. Mário Soares, Guterres and Sócrates were moderate Socialists while Costa has shifted the party to the left.


Partido Social Democrata (PPD/PSD)
Leader: Pedro Passos Coelho

The main center-right party in Portugal, founded in 1974. Originally the PSD was called the People's Democratic Party (PPD) and defined it self as social democratic and center-left. It even filled to be a member of International Socialist but PS block it. Since then, around 1977, the party shifted to the right and is now a regular liberal conservative/christian democratic party. Nonetheless, the party is also known for it's fierce infighting between the liberal wing, which advocates a smaller state and low taxes, and the social democratic wing, which advocates for a more closer relationship between the PS and PSD. In local elections, the PSD regularly celebrates many coalitions with CDS, PPM or MPT.


CDS-Partido Popular (CDS-PP)
Leader: Assunção Cristas

A center-right party, very close to the PSD. Founded in 1974 by Freitas do Amaral, during the rough years of the post-revolution they were the main rightwing force in the country. Since 1979, the CDS has been the closest ally of the PSD, making a series of coaltions in national, european and local elections. In terms of ideology, CDS ia a normal christian democrat party with strong conservative values. In local elections the party celebrates many coalitions with PSD.


Partido Comunista Português (PCP)
Leader: Jerónimo de Sousa

The main political force within CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition), the PCP is Portugal's oldest political party as it was founded in 1921. During the Salazar dictatorship, the party was the secret opposition to the regime and, as a result, many of their proeminent leaders were arrested. After the 1974 revolution, the party became one of the most important of the democratic regime, gaining support from workers and especially farmers in the South of Portugal.


Bloco de Esquerda (BE)
Leader: Catarina Martins

Formed in 1998 after the merge of many smaller lefwing, far left and trotsky parties, the party soon became an irreverent party defending many divisive topics like abortion, gay marriage or decriminalization of drugs.


Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes" (PEV)
Leader: Heloísa Apolónia

The junior party in the CDU coalition, along side PCP, it's an ecologist party formed in 1982. The party has a strong intervention on ecological and enviornemnt topics although it has never contested an election on it's own.


Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (PAN)
Leader: André Silva

Party formed in 2009, it is a party of "causes" and advocates for animals rights and nature rights. They are a strong opponent of bullfighting in Portugal. It's a party that fluctuates between the center and the center-left.


Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses (PCTP/MRPP)
Leader: Arnaldo Matos

Founded in 1970 as an alternative, in the far left, to the PCP who they say is not a party of the proletariat. The party is from the far-left, advoctes Maoism and it's anti europe.


Partido da Terra (MPT)
Leader: José Inácio Faria

A center-right ecological party, which has environmental and humanitarian values. In local elections, formes many coalitions with PSD and/or CDS.


Partido Popular Monárquico (PPM)
Leader: Paulo Estêvão

A center-right to rightwing party that defends the restauration of the monarchy in Portugal. In local elections, formes many coalitions with PSD and/or CDS.


Partido Trabalhista Português (PTP)
Leader: Amândio Madaleno

A center-left party that was founded to be an alternative to the PS but it has only found some success in the Madeira regional parliament.


Partido Nacional Renovador (PNR)
Leader: José Pinto Coelho

Far-right party, very similar to National Front in France. It defends a strong Portuguese identity, it's anti-NATO, anti-europe and anti-immigration.


Partido Cidadania e Democracia Cristã (PPV/CDC)
Leader: Manuel Matias

Right-wing party that defends the social doctrine of the Catholic Church. One of it's main goals is the illegalization of abortion.


Juntos pelo Povo (JPP)
Leader: Filipe Sousa

Centrist party formed by the mayor of Santa Cruz, Madeira islands. The party has a strong presence in the Madeira regional parliament.


LIVRE (L)
Leader: Colective group

Center-left to left party, it has a social democratic/Eco-socialism ideology.


Nós, Cidadãos  (NC)
Leader: Mendo Castro Henriques

A centrist party that swings between the center-right and center-left. It was formed after the 2012 protests against the PSD/CDS government.


Movimento Alternativa Socialista (MAS)
Leader: Gil Garcia

Leftwing to far left party, formed in 2000 as "Ruptura/FER", but revamped in 2013. They are a trotskyist political organization


Partido Democrático Republicano (PDR)
Leader: Marinho e Pinto

A centrist party formed by the former bar association president, Marinho Pinto. It has been labeled as a populist party. Their main goals are written in their logo: Justice, Liberty and Solidarity.


Partido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas (PURP)
Leader: Fernando Loureiro

A centrist party formed to defend the rights of retirees and pensioners. They are also labeled as anti-austerity.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 04:45:27 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #391 on: August 03, 2017, 11:20:09 am »
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PCP accuses the government of hurting the Portuguese community in Venezuela by not accepting the results of the Constituent Assembly.

The Portuguese government, like every other European government, has condemn the Constituent assembly election and doesn't recognizes the results. Also, all of the parties, PS/PSD/CDS/BE, have condemn the results, with the exception of the Communists.

The PCP in the last few days has released very harsh statements about the government's position about Venezuela but in this last one, they accuse the PS minority government of taking positions "contrary to the interests of the Portuguese community in that country, with the risk of even hurting them."

The position of the PCP is being criticized by almost everyone from left to right. Francisco Assis, PS MEP, has said that this proves that the "PCP in its deepest essence, isn't a democratic party", while CDS is using the PCP stance to attack the government for being to soft on Venezuela and slow to help the Portuguese community, adding also that the PCP may be "limiting" the government stance on Venezuela.
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« Reply #392 on: August 03, 2017, 02:56:58 pm »
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What party/parties get votes from Salazar nostalgic?
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« Reply #393 on: August 03, 2017, 05:18:06 pm »
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What party/parties get votes from Salazar nostalgic?
PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
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« Reply #394 on: August 04, 2017, 08:25:51 am »
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PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.

Thank you for the reply. and not publicly?
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« Reply #395 on: August 04, 2017, 10:05:02 am »
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PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.

Thank you for the reply. and not publicly?
None, actually. There's some fear on the right or the center-right that any talk of Salazar or his regime may be hurtfull. For example, in 2012 Passos Coelho was photograph with a book on Salazar and he was criticized by everyone from left and right. So, even talking about it quietly may have consequences. After the revolution many of the former regime politicians supported either the CDS or PSD and even them, some are still alive today, don't like to talk about that period.

Now, on the left they talk almost every day about Salazar, but to attack the PSD and CDS. Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.
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« Reply #396 on: August 04, 2017, 02:07:48 pm »
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Eurosondagem poll for August:

40.8% PS (+0.4)
28.1% PSD (-0.5)
  8.4% BE (-0.1)
  7.6% CDU (-0.2)
  6.9% CDS (+0.7)
  1.1% PAN (-0.1)
  7.1% OTH/Invalid (-0.1)

Raw numbers:

32.3% PS (-0.9)
22.3% PSD (-1.2)
  6.6% BE (-0.4)
  6.0% CDU (-0.4)
  5.4% CDS (+0.3)
  0.9% PAN (-0.2)
  5.6% OTH/Invalid (-0.4)
20.9% Undecided (+3.2)

Poll conducted between 27 July and 2 August. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.09%.
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« Reply #397 on: August 06, 2017, 12:12:50 pm »
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CDU doesn't close the door to a possible support for the PS in Lisbon, if they lose their majority.

João Ferreira, CDU candidate for Lisbon, doesn't close a door to a possible coalition with the PS if Fernando Medina, the PS candidate, loses it majority. Mr Ferreira added that the last 8 years of PS majority in Lisbon were quite bad and that the PS needs to lose their majority.

This wouldn't be the first time the PS and CDU join forces in Lisbon. Between 1990 and 2002, Lisbon was governed by a PS/CDU coalition. The coalition started in the 1989 elections, in the race between Jorge Sampaio, PS/CDU candidate, and Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, PSD/CDS candidate. This race was close to the end, with Sampaio urging Lisbon voters to ditch the PSD/CDS after 10 years in power and Marcelo saying that no city in Europe was governed by Communists and Lisbon shouldn't be an exception. At the end Sampaio won 49% of the votes to Marcelo's 42%. Sampaio won again in 1993 by a landslide, capturing 57% of the vote to the PSD's 26%. In 1997, Sampaio left office in 1995 to run for president of the republic, the PS/CDU achieved the "hat-trick" winning again with 52% of the votes to the PSD/CDS's 39%. But in 2001 the coalition ended when they were defeated by the PSD candidate, Pedro Santana Lopes, by 42.0% to 41.7% margin.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 12:14:31 pm by Mike88 »Logged
peter88
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« Reply #398 on: August 07, 2017, 10:00:15 am »
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I thought they would rather stick to the current state of affairs, their economy didn't endure anything like Spain or Greece in 2008, no housing bubble and generally, their economy is doing well and there is promise for further growth. For example, financial database Trading Economics says that property prices in Portugal will keep growing up to 4,5% by 2020, and the national economy is expected to grow at least 1% per annum
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Mike88
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« Reply #399 on: August 07, 2017, 02:01:28 pm »
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I thought they would rather stick to the current state of affairs, their economy didn't endure anything like Spain or Greece in 2008, no housing bubble and generally, their economy is doing well and there is promise for further growth. For example, financial database Trading Economics says that property prices in Portugal will keep growing up to 4,5% by 2020, and the national economy is expected to grow at least 1% per annum
The vast majority of economic policies haven't changed, on the contrary, the PS/BE/CDU government is persuing economic and fiscal policies almost identical to the former PSD/CDS government. In some cases they are even more austere than the PSD/CDS government as public spending has drop to an all time low.

You're right, the Portuguese economy didn't have any bubbles like Spain, Greece or Ireland. What we did had, and still coping with, was overspending and a huge public debt. By 2008, public spending by GDP was over 50% and the public debt increased from 67% in 2005 to 80% by late 2008, and to make things worse, the Sócrates PS government, fearing a bad result in the 2009 elections, decided to ignore any problem and increased wages, pensions and subsidies that resulted, obviously, in a 11% deficit by the end of 2009. By 2010, the economy was recovering but the government was failing to introduce a plan to control public spending, which reached an all time high of almost 52% by early 2011. By 2011, markets stopped believing in the governments plans and credibility and the government realised they only had money for the next two months. A bailout was inevitable.

The bailout was very hard, with taxes hikes and spending cuts but many reforms were done. Reforms in the job sector in order to liberalize the job market, reforms on local rents, reform of tourism equipments, which expedited the creation of many tourism based businesses. By mid 2013 the economy was finally recovering and since then, the economy has grown every trimester. There was a decrease in growth after the 2015 elections and the subsequent rise to power of PS/CDU/BE government but by the summer of 2016, realising the economic policies weren't going to change, the economy started growing by 2% or more per trimester.

Tourism and the housing market have been the main boosters of the economy. Prices are increasing, although in a very fast pace which can create problems in the future, but overall no major economic policies changes. But at the same time, there are some taxes on luxurious housing and tourist fees that the government wants to introduce that could hurt a bit the economy.
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