Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Massive wildfires across the country today have killed 3 people so far and 25 are injured.


Massive fire in Leiria district.

After the Pedrógão Grande disaster report and now with this situation across the country, i don't know how António Costa can support the Interior Minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa. She's a dead woman walking right now.

[Mike88]

The massive wildfires during the weekend, that killed 37 people and injured more than 70, are creating a big crisis in Costa's government:

The media is hitting hard on António Costa and the Interior Minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, for not apologizing for the more of 100 deads during this summer/autumn wildfires and, at the same time, are criticizing the PM's support for the Interior Minister. Many pró-PS pundits and even PS politicians are now saying that Ms Urbano de Sousa is in an "intolerable situation" and needs to resign.


António Costa leaving the podium after delivering a speech to the nation on Monday night.

At the same time, CDS is presenting a motion of motion of censorship against the government because, according to the CDS, the government has "failed the in prevention, fire combat and in the help for victims." The motion will probably have the votes from the PSD but it will not pass, as the PS/BE/CDU have enough votes to struck it down.

Many demonstrations are also expected during the next few days against the wildfires and the government's response to it. But, it's not clear how many people will actually show up to these demonstrations.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: "Parliament has to evaluate if this government goes on or not."


Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa delivering his speech to the nation.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, delivered the toughest speech of his mandate til date. In his speech, Marcelo said that "banalize the dead will make my conscience heavy" adding also that a "new cycle has opened that will make the Government ponder what and who is best to serve in this new cycle". He said this is the last chance the government has and suggests a government reshuffle, opening the door for the removal of the Interior minister and others, adding also that is "justifiable to apologize", alluding to the fact that Costa or his government haven't apologized for the more than 100 dead.

He also pointed that now is up to Parliament to decide if this government should continue. Alluding to the CDS motion against the government, Marcelo wants Parliament to relegitimate and reinforce Costa's government or struck it down to "to avoid a misunderstanding".

[Mike88]

BREAKING NEWS The Interior Minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, has resigned.


The PM has accepted the resignation of the minister.

In a letter sent to the PM and the press, the Interior minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, has asked the PM to accept her resignation, which Costa did. In the letter, Ms Urbano de Sousa said she had already asked to quit in June but the PM refused, that this time her capabilities are over and closing the letter saying that for personal dignity and respect, the PM has to accept her resignation.

The PSD leader, Pedro Passos Coelho, says he's embarrassed by what is happening, that the government doesn't deserve a 2nd chance and that Costa should quit as PM.

[Mike88]

New ministers announced: Eduardo Cabrita is the new Interior Minister; Pedro Siza Vieira new deputy minister.


Eduardo Cabrita (left); Pedro Siza Vieira (right).

The PM announced, after PM question time debate on parliament, the new ministers for his government. Eduardo Cabrita, former deputy minister, will replace Constança Urbano de Sousa as Interior Minister and Pedro Siza Vieira, one of Costa's best friends, will be his deputy minister, replacing Eduardo Cabrita.

António Costa's pose on the parliament debate, today, is being labeled by the media as a capitulation to the words of the President of the Republic. In the debate, Costa apologized, although in a very harsh way, admitted that the State had failed in protecting the people and said that this events will haunt his memory during his lifetime.

It's not clear, yet, if all of these events will effect the PM's and the PS popularity in the polls.

[Mike88]

POLITICO's report on the wildfires and the subsequent crisis in Costa's government:

Forest fires weaken Portugal's government.

[Mike88]

Another embarrassment for the Government: Weapons stolen from Tancos air base in July were found... 20kms from the base.


Fence around the Tancos air base.

Police forces have found the stolen material from Tancos air base. They were tip off by an anonymous phone call that told the police that the stolen material was in Chamusca, a city just 20kms from Tancos air base. This news is another embarrassment for the government as the Defense minster, Azeredo Lopes, made a series of controversial statements saying that the robbery didn't happen or that the weapons may had fallen in the hands of terrorists. The minister has already been asked to go to Parliament to clarify what really happened.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Defense Minister is ousted in the next few weeks.

Also, more resignations due to the wildfires: The President of the National Civil Protection Authority (governmental entity that coordinate help and security efforts), Joaquim Leitão, has resigned. The PM has already accepted his resignation.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from October:

41.9% PS (-2.1)
23.8% PSD (+0.9)
  9.0% BE (-0.1)
  7.7% CDU (-0.1)
  5.9% CDS (+0.7)
  8.3% Others/Invalid (-0.7)
  3.4% Undecided (+0.5)

Pol conducted between 14 and 17 October. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for the PSD leadership election:

44.2% Rui Rio
43.3% Santana Lopes
12.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 16 and 18 October. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.09%

Take this poll with a grain of salt. The poll is from all voters, so, PS, BE and CDU voters could be pushing up Santana Lopes as he is seen as the weakest candidate against António Costa. Only PSD members are allowed to vote in the leadership election.

[Mike88]

The photo of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa that is going around the world:


Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa conforting an elderly woman that lost her home in Santa Comba Dão (Viseu district)

Time magazine has highlighted this photo of Marcelo.

His posture during this week has been amazing. Since Wednesday, he has been traveling to every single village in Viseu and Coimbra district that have been devastated by the wildfires.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What can the government do to help prevent these fires? Destroy eucalyptus trees?

Also I hope you and your family/friends have stayed safe in these events, Mike.

[Mike88]

What can the government do to help prevent these fires? Destroy eucalyptus trees?

Also I hope you and your family/friends have stayed safe in these events, Mike.

I live in a city near the sea and, from what i know, none of my friends, thank God, had properties affected by the fire.

The government has approved today a series of economic packages to help the devastated areas. The government promesses to spend something between 300 and 400 million euros in housing and business rebuilding; 35 million euros for the agriculture sector and 13 millions euros to pay wages for people which saw their jobs destroyed by the wildfires. There will also be monetary compensation to the families of the victims but it will first go to a committee, then it has to be approved and then people have to sign up... The typical Portuguese bureaucracy.

In terms of forest planning, reform and fire prevention, there will probably be a limit in the expansion of eucalyptus trees, plus the government wants to create a national list of land owners because the vast majority of lands is private, 98%. Adding to this, there seems to be an agreement between PS and PSD, from what they are saying, to create a military unit of firemen, like Spain has, introduce reforms in the Civil Protection commands and also reform the communications system, SIRESP, to make more reliable as it constantly colapses in the worst hours.

But all of this is still unknown and vague. In the next few weeks the government will probably give more details on the forest policy. The PSD has also announced it will propose additional policies, and i think there will probably be somekind of approach between the government and the PSD policies.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for the PSD leadership election:

67.5% Rui Rio
23.9% Santana Lopes
  8.6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 October. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Completely different numbers compared with Eurosondagem. Also an all voters poll, but, according to the article, Rui Rio is also the favourite by the PSD voters. We'll have to wait for the crosstabs to be published. Rio is also seen as the strongest against Costa: 66.7% to Santana's 27.0%.

[Mike88]

Pedro Santana Lopes officially announced his candidacy for the PSD leadership.


Santana Lopes announcing his candidacy in Santarém city.

In his speech, Santana Lopes started with a word to wildfire victims and wasn't shy on talking about his failed mandate as PM (2004-2005). He said he learned from those controversial years, saying that "vote legitimacy isn't inherited, it's conquered". He made several indirect attacks to Rui Rio, pointing, for example, that Rio supported Rui Moreira in 2013 rather than the PSD candidate. Adding to this, he says he wants a "PSD more like the PPD", alluding to the party original roots during Francisco Sá Carneiro and, at the same time, he said that social solidarity, a strong educational system and NHS and a very strong private sector economy, are his goals as PSD leader, and as a candidate for Prime Minister.

Closing his speech, he said he wants to unite the party after the years of "national salvation" during Passos Coelho, which he also praised. He also challenged Rui Rio to 21 debates, one for each district party.

[Mike88]

The PSD has published the official timetable for the leadership election:

The 120,000 members of the party have until December 15th to pay their quotas, and be automatically registered to vote;

Candidacies have to be delivered until January 2nd 2018;

The official campaign period starts on January 3rd and ends on January 12th;

Election day: January 13th 2018.

[Mike88]

Costa survives censorship motion in Parliament, but BE/CDU had harsh words to the PM:

António Costa survived his 1st motion against his government as he was able to hold on to the support of CDU, BE and, this time, PAN. The censorship motion was presented by CDS and seconded by the PSD. CDS presented a motion against Costa government after the tragic wildfires of October 15th that killed, until the moment, 45 people. The party accuses Costa of neglect and that the wildfires could had been mitigated, as the government was warned on Friday, October 13th, that weather conditions would be very harsh during that weekend.


Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, giving her reasons for censorshing the government.

The government, and BE/CDU, accused CDS of "political opportunism" by presenting this motion and said they would vote against it, although both leftwing parties would be very harsh on questining António Costa. And that was exactly what happened. BE asked how was the government so unprepared and CDU said that the vote against the motion doesn't mean that they have trust in Costa. CDS gave a really hard speech against Costa and BE/CDU, accusing the PM of hidding from his responsibilities and labeled BE and CDU as hypocrites, suggesting that if there was, right now, a PSD government, the leftwing parties would certainly have a different posture.


António Costa, as he is ready to give his speech.

PSD labeled Costa as "2nd rate technocrat" and not the wise politician he likes to be characterized as. Luís Montenegro, who gave the PSD response, added that the PS led government when confronted with a big test on their leadership, they fail spectacularly. He finished his speech saying the left wants to shut up the PSD, in a manner only seen in dictatorships they applaud.


Luís Montenegro, PSD, giving the party's response for the motion.

PS accused the PSD/CDS opposition of performing an "useless debate" with personal criticisms, adding that, right now, we need a consensus on the Forest Reform and that the 2018 budget will be a document of confidence as it will respond to the forest problems without compromising fiscal consolidation and growth.

The vote results were:

122 Against (PS, BE, CDU, PAN)
105 In Favour (PSD, CDS)
    3 Absent

In the end of the vote, the PS applauded, with a standing ovation, the results while BE and CDU stayed silent and left the chamber.

[Mike88]

A little history summary of the PSD leadership elections. The current way of voting, (one member, one vote), was introduced in 2006 by the then leader, Luís Marques Mendes. The elections happens every 2 years, but it can be anticipated at any specific time. Before that, PSD leaders were elected by delegates at a party congress.

Since 2006, the results were the following:

Election of 5 May 2006:

90.9% Luís Marques Mendes
  9.1% Invalid

37.3% Turnout

Election of 28 September 2007:

53.6% Luís Felipe Menezes
43.1% Luís Marques Mendes
  3.3% Invalid

62.4% Turnout

Election of 31 May 2008:

37.9% Manuela Ferreira Leite
31.1% Pedro Passos Coelho
29.6% Pedro Santana Lopes
  0.7% Patinha Antão
  0.7% Invalid
 
59.1% Turnout

Election of 26 March 2010:

61.2% Pedro Passos Coelho
34.4% Paulo Rangel
  3.4% José Pedro Aguiar-Branco
  0.3% Castanheira Barros
  0.7% Invalid
 
66.3% Turnout

Election of 3 March 2012:

94.7% Pedro Passos Coelho
  5.3% Invalid

40.2% Turnout

Election of 25 January 2014:

88.9% Pedro Passos Coelho
11.1% Invalid

42.5% Turnout

Election of 5 March 2016:

95.1% Pedro Passos Coelho
  4.9% Invalid

46.4% Turnout

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on governmental policies:

Q1: What should be the top priority for the government?

55.5% Deficit reduction
36.7% Increase wages, pensions
  5.4% Both
  2.4% Undecided

Q2: Which governing party is responsible for the minimum wage increase?

39.8% CDU
27.2% BE
15.7% PS
  7.1% BE/CDU
  5.3% All three
  4.8% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the increase on pensions?

40.4% CDU
21.5% BE
18.0% PS
  8.9% BE/CDU
  7.1% All three
  4.2% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the reduction of the IRS surcharge?

35.3% PS
28.8% BE
15.1% CDU
12.6% No opinion
  5.8% All three
  5.4% BE/CDU

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 October. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Political news update:

The PM gave, Sunday night, an interview on TVI. In the interview, Costa acknowledged that he underestimated the wildfires risks and gave a warning to the President saying that it "would be a loss for the country if the relation between both office holders is harmed". At the same time, the PM tried to lay to rest the various reports that the relation between him and the president is near impossible.

The reactions to the interview have been quite negative. Público newspaper is reporting that the Presidency is disappointed in Costa, and that the interview didn't showed any new policies or actions to be taken. Social media is also being very critical of the interview especially because of the location of the interview and it's scenery. Many view this as a huge PR failure. The PSD has also criticized this and has compared Costa with Sócrates, adding that both only care about their image.


António Costa interview in a firefighters headquarters.

Also, Rui Rio, candidate for the PSD leadership, appeared in a late night show on RTP1 to try to appease his image of being to distant. The media is labeling this as the "humanization" of Rui Rio. In the show he played drums, which he frequently plays at home, talked about his youth and tried to show he also has a sense of humour.


Rui Rio playing drums on RTP1.

[VPH]

Aximage poll on governmental policies:

Q1: What should be the top priority for the government?

55.5% Deficit reduction
36.7% Increase wages, pensions
  5.4% Both
  2.4% Undecided

Q2: Which governing party is responsible for the minimum wage increase?

39.8% CDU
27.2% BE
15.7% PS
  7.1% BE/CDU
  5.3% All three
  4.8% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the increase on pensions?

40.4% CDU
21.5% BE
18.0% PS
  8.9% BE/CDU
  7.1% All three
  4.2% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the reduction of the IRS surcharge?

35.3% PS
28.8% BE
15.1% CDU
12.6% No opinion
  5.8% All three
  5.4% BE/CDU

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 October. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Goodness, popular policies are being tied to the CDU. I find that so strange...

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on governmental policies:

Q1: What should be the top priority for the government?

55.5% Deficit reduction
36.7% Increase wages, pensions
  5.4% Both
  2.4% Undecided

Q2: Which governing party is responsible for the minimum wage increase?

39.8% CDU
27.2% BE
15.7% PS
  7.1% BE/CDU
  5.3% All three
  4.8% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the increase on pensions?

40.4% CDU
21.5% BE
18.0% PS
  8.9% BE/CDU
  7.1% All three
  4.2% No opinion

Q3: Which governing party is responsible for the reduction of the IRS surcharge?

35.3% PS
28.8% BE
15.1% CDU
12.6% No opinion
  5.8% All three
  5.4% BE/CDU

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 October. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Goodness, popular policies are being tied to the CDU. I find that so strange...

Increase of the minimum wage and of pensions was always a CDU flag. They always wanted increases of the minimum wage, but they also asked for increases to 600, 600 plus euros and there's no money for it. Pensions increase is also a huge CDU flag, because a huge part of their electorate are elderly voters with very low pensions. The PS just went along with these policies, but they are miles away from what the CDU really wanted. What was more striking in this poll, is that a considerably majority of voters prefer deficit consolidation than welfare state spending.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio and Santana Lopes tried to earn support from PSD MPs.

The PSD is holding this week their annual party caucus gathering, this time in Braga city. And this year, both candidates for the leadership were invited to speak to the party's members of parliament. In a speech, closed to reporters, both candidates explained their agenda for the next leadership and for the next general elections. Santana Lopes proposed an 8 year agenda with focus on territorial organization and on economic growth to put Portugal in the european average. After the end of the meeting he said, to reporters, he wants to be a leader of "proximity", and that the current government will not last until 2019.


Santana Lopes greeting Rui Rio, with Passos Coelho next to him.

Rui Rio, on the other hand, proposed reforms on the political system and continued efforts for more budget and fiscal consolidation. At the same time, he added that the PSD members need to elect a leader that the Portuguese ordinary voter wants (Rio is the clear favourite according to polls). He also said he believes the current government will last until 2019, the absolute opposite of what Santana Lopes believes.

[Mike88]

Update on the 2018 budget vote:

Without surprises, the PSD will vote against the budget. Passos Coelho announced the party's official stance at the end of the PSD annual caucus gathering.

Also, the PCP is positioning itself to vote against some budget proposals. Although the party already announced that they will vote, generally, in favour of the budget, the PCP is going to vote against the so called "Salt tax", that is expected to tax food with salt.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Madeira region: (Projected MPs)

36.3% PSD (19)
33.6% PS (17)
  6.5% JPP (3)
  6.0% CDS (3)
  4.5% CDU (2)
  4.1% BE (2)
  2.1% PTP (1)
  6.9% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 22 and 24 October. Polled 1,017 voters. MoE of 3.07%.

[Mike88]

Fernando Medina, Lisbon mayor, strikes a deal with BE to have a majority.

After CDU said no to a possible deal with Medina, the mayor of Lisbon only had the BE sole councillor to achieve a majority. After long negotiations, Medina and the BE announced an agreement between both sides. The PS, although, gave in on many BE demands. In return, the BE councillor, Ricardo Robles, will be responsible for Education and social affairs.


Ricardo Robles, BE councillor, and Fernando Medina after signing the deal.

With this agreement, Medina now has an absolute majority of 9 councillors against the 8 councillors from the opposition. At the same time, both parties also reached an agreement on several political points like housing, transports, social affairs and Culture. On housing, there will a program of accessible rents, in which 3,000 houses will be distributed, and there will be protections for tenants with economic need in a case of evictions.

On education, children until the 9th grade will have free books this year, while until the rest of the term, all students until 12th grade will also have free books, and more than 1,000 day care centers will be open. On social issues, it will be created a LGBT+ host center, and a 24/7 center to help victims of domestic abuse. Other policies on green spaces and transparency will also be taken.