Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

PCP blocks all deals in PS minority town halls:

The PCP is refusing to form any coalitions with the PS in many cities where the Socialist are the minority. In Lisbon, after the refusal of the Communists, Fernando Medina formed a coalition with the BE. And now, in two big cities in the Lisbon area, Almada and Barreiro, which the PCP lost control in this year elections, the PS will form a majority with the PSD after, again, the PCP refused to reach an agreement with the Socialists.

In Almada, for the 1st time ever, the PSD will be part of the local government. The new PS mayor, Inês Medeiros, has gave the PSD the management of green spaces, water supply and road planning.

The October 1st election results were historic in these two cities, as for the 1st time ever, the PS overcame the CDU as the largest party. The results were the following: (compared with 2013)

Almada

31.5% PS (+5.7), 4 councillors (+1)
30.8% CDU (-7.9), 4 (-2)
14.1% PSD (+0.2), 2 (n.c.)
  9.6% BE (+4.2), 1 (+1)
  3.9% PAN (+1.6)
  2.6% CDS (n.c.)
  1.8% PCTP (-0.4)
  0.4% PNR
  0.3% PTP (-0.2)
  5.0% Invalid

44.2% Turnout

Barreiro

37.5% PS (+9.7), 4 councillors (+1)
33.3% CDU (-11.6), 4 (-1)
11.4% PSD (+2.5), 1 (n.c.)
  6.7% BE (+0.6)
  2.7% PAN
  1.7% PCTP (-1.5)
  1.6% CDS (+0.3)
  1.1% PNR
  3.9% Invalid

50.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

CDU and PSD end coalition in Loures:

Bernardino Soares, CDU mayor of Loures (Lisbon district), will govern the city with a minority government, as he refused to prolong the coalition with André Ventura's PSD and, also, because the PS refused to make any agreement with the Communists.

In the October 1st election, the CDU was again the largest party, but lost votes and seats, as did the PS, to André Ventura. The PSD, with the controversial André Ventura as it's candidate, achieved their best result since 1993. The results were the following: (compared with 2013)

32.8% CDU (-1.9), 4 councillors (-1)
28.2% PS (-3.0), 4 (n.c.)
21.6% PSD/PPM (+5.6), 3 (+1)
  3.6% BE (+0.4)
  2.9% CDS (-0.2)
  2.6% PCTP (-0.3)
  2.1% PAN
  0.8% NC
  0.5% PDR/JPP
  0.3% PTP (-0.2)
  4.8% Invalid

52.3% Turnout

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Erm, why were the Communists in a coalition with PSD?

[crals]

Erm, why were the Communists in a coalition with PSD?

CDU-PSD coalitions are quite common in municipalities where CDU and PS are each other's main rival

[Mike88]

Erm, why were the Communists in a coalition with PSD?

CDU-PSD coalitions are quite common in municipalities where CDU and PS are each other's main rival

Exactly. Local politics dynamics are quite different from the national one. In many cities, more aligned to the left or the right, sometimes there are coalitions that seem odd in a national view, but, like crals said, are quite commom, like this CDU/PSD coalitions, or like the PS/CDS coalitions in the 80’s and 90’s in Madeira and Azores against the PSD. The Loures case is a very good one. Loures is a very leftwing city, in which either the PS or CDU win the elections and, where the PSD acts as the kingmaker. In every election in the last 20 to 30 years, only once there was a majority, in this case won by the PS, therefore these 3 parties have a very strong voter base in Loures: PS and CDU gain always around 28% to 34%, while PSD normally earned around 16% of the votes.

In 2013, the CDU gained the city from the Socialists, and, to form a stable government, they needed to make agreements with someone. The PS refused and the PSD accepted. By 2013, Loures had a big debt and a lot of payments delayed, so, CDU and PSD agreed to create a plan to upgrade the bad economic situation Loures was in. The coalition worked very well until the PSD candidate, André Ventura, made very controversial statements about the gypsy or romany community that were labeled as racist. The PS refused to work with CDU, and because of Ventura’s statements, adding also the good result the PSD achieved that stole votes from CDU, the CDU/PSD coalition, or the orange/vodka coalition, ended.

[Mike88]

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader: "The world is a worse place without the Soviet Union."


PCP rally celebrating the 1917 revolution.

In a speech in a rally, commemorating the 100 years of the Russian revolution, the Communist leader said that the world is a worse place without the Soviet Union, adding also that the world needs socialism and that the Soviet Union has an "unquestionable role for progress and world peace".

Also, other news are dominating the headlines here:

The Websummit, the biggest technology summit in the world, is again being hosted in Lisbon, but the main headline for the media is the outbreak of legionella in a hospital in Lisbon that is infecting more and more patients each day. Until now, 38 have been infected and 2 have died. The Health minister is being very criticized for his handling of this outbreak, and the DA office has already opened an inquiry on this case. Adding more pressure to the Health minister, Doctors started another strike in the NHS, the 2nd this year. Many operations were canceled and many hospitals are only half working.

Nonetheless, this is not the worst case of legionella in Portugal. The worst case was in 2014, when a factory chimney in northen Lisbon expelled legionella across the city of Vila Franca de Xira. More than 370 people were infected and 12 died.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from November:

39.1% PS (-2.8 )
25.5% PSD (+1.7)
  8.7% BE (-0.3)
  8.6% CDU (+0.9)
  6.7% CDS (+0.8 )
  8.4% Others/Invalid (+0.1)
  3.0% Undecided (-0.4)

PM Confidence

56.2% Costa
34.1% Rui Rio
  6.4% Neither
  0.7% Both
  2.6% No opinion

68.4% Costa
21.9% Santana Lopes
  7.0% Neither
  2.7% No opinion

Poll conducted between 4 and 6 November. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Sorry for not posting during this week. My laptop had some problems and it went to be fixed.

The government, right now, is at it's weakest moment, exactly 2 years after being sworned in. After the wildfires during the summer and October, the government is now facing a huge opposition and fight back from teachers unions. The teachers unions want the freeze on career and wage progressions, implemented in 2011 by José Sócrates, to end in 2018 but the government says that there is no money for it. On Wednesday, there was a teacher strike and a rally against the government, organized by the unions, in front of Parliament.


Teachers protesting against the government.

Unions are not backing down, and they even have the support of BE and PCP, making even more pressure on Costa's government. Costa proposed that the freeze could end in 2020, but unions are rejecting this, because there is a chance that by 2020 Costa could not be PM anymore. The government is giving in to the unions, and, right now, they propose the freeze to be over by 2019, but without any money spent. The unions are in negotiations with the government.

At the same time, many PS MPs are worried about the political impact of the teachers protests. The ghost of the 2007/08 teachers protests, that hurt José Sócrates electoral chances in 2009, is present and many Socialists are warning Costa about it.

[Mike88]

November poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 8 and 15 November. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%

[Mike88]

Former secretary of European Affairs during Passos Coelho's government, Bruno Maçães, is accused of sexual harassment by an American journalist.


Bruno Maçães.

Bruno Maçães, former secretary in Passos Coelho's governments, is being accused of sexual harassment by Lily Lynch, an American journalist and co-founder of Balkanist. The event happened in October 2016 when Maçães sent pictures of his penis to Ms Lynch, plus he also sent many sexual oriented messages to Ms Lynch. She later blocked him on twitter and has now published his messages to her.

[Mike88]

PSD advises the PS led government to reject an European Army.


2011 Portugal's day military parade.

The Social Democrats (PSD) will advise the government to reject Portugal's entry to a future European Army, at the same time that Portugal should join the EU permanent enhanced cooperation mechanism. In a statement sent by the PSD caucus, the party says that in the EU treaty, "the common security and defense policy will lead to a common defense as soon as the European Council, acting unanimously, so decides."

The current leader of the PSD, Passos Coelho, has already stated he's against any form of an European Army.

[Mike88]

After Porto lost the EMA race, the government announces that the Portuguese pharmaceutical agency (Infarmed) will be transferred from Lisbon to Porto, but creates a political storm:

Porto city placed 7th in the EMA race after a messy campaign on which city Portugal should present, and, yesterday, the Health minister announced that Portuguese pharmaceutical agency (Infarmed) will be transferred from Lisbon to Porto. The Porto mayor applauded the decision but there was one problem... the government forgot to inform Infarmed workers about the transfer. They were informed by the media. Workers in the agency are very angry at the government's decision and made a poll on the 350 workers, and found that 97% are against the transfer to Porto city.


Infarmed headquarters in Lisbon.

The mayor of Porto, Rui Moreira, says he's unaware of the Infarmed workers sentiments, at the same time he says on Facebook that "he's loving the resentfulness of some people".

The opposition is accusing the government of trying to compensate Porto city from the disastrous EMA campaign, at the same time the PSD/Coimbra accuses the government of a "clumsy change" to Porto and suggests Coimbra is the best city to host Infarmed.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll about the Madeira Government Presidency:

Q: Who do you prefer to be President of the Madeira Government?

36.9% Miguel Albuquerque (PSD), Inc.
35.8% Carlos Pereira (PS)
27.3% Neither/Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 9 November. Polled 717 voters. MoE of 3.65%

[Mike88]

The 2018 budget is, almost, finally approved but, there were many government policies that were struck down by a negative coalition between the PSD/CDS/PCP and sometimes the BE:

- The "salt tax" or "the french fry tax", proposed by the government to tax food with high levels of salt, was rejected by the PSD, CDS and PCP. It got the votes in favour from the PS and BE.

- The PSD/CDS/PCP approved a BE proposal to increase monthly maintenance subsidies for doctoral/college fellowships. The PS was against it.

- RTP, the public television, will receive the audiovisual contribution, tax paid to subsidise RTP, on the 24th day of every month to avoid cash captives. The proposal was presented by BE and approved by PSD/CDS/PCP. The government and the PS were against it.

- The cash captives were quite controversial during the last 2 years, as the government didn't spent 1 billion euros as a way to reduce the deficit, and here the PSD/CDS/BE approved a norm where the government has to notify parliament of the captives and that parliament will control, every month, the money the government is captivating. The PS and PCP where against it and the PS says this is unconstitutional. The Finance minister also lost control on the money to spent, or not, in the NHS.


MPs voting in Parliament during the budget discussions.

At the same time, the PS, and the government, conceded to BE and PCP in many policies:

- The PS accepted the increase of the surcharge of the corporate tax from 7% to 9% for companies who profit more than 35 million euros. The proposal had the opposition of the PSD/CDS and employers and business associations.

- Clean energy will pay an additional tax. The proposal was presented by BE and supported by PS/PCP. PSD and CDS voted against it. This was struck down by the PS in a re-vote on November 27th.

- Pensions will be increased, and the holiday and Christmas subsidies, the 13th and 14th monthly payment, will be re-instituted next year in the private sector. Currently, the subsidy is diluted during every month. The bill was approved by PS/BE/PCP and CDS. It was rejected by PSD.

In the overall budget vote, PSD and CDS will against while PS, PCP, BE will vote in favour. The final vote is expected on tuesday. But many policies that the government wanted to pass were struck down, and there is still the problem with the teachers career progression to be negotiated.

[Mike88]

PCP doesn't foresee a new agreements with the PS in the next parliament:


Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader.

In an interview to Expresso newspaper, Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, doesn't preview, or foresee, a new deal with the Socialists after the next elections. The PCP leader says that there are to many differences between them and the PS, and that the PS, in core policies, is more aligned with the right than the communists.

[Mike88]

Controversial townhall: Sol newspaper reports the government paid 36.700 euros to 50 people that will ask questions to members of the government:


António Costa at a townhall meeting about the 2018 budget.

Sol newspaper is reporting, today, that the government paid almost 37.000 euros to around 50 people that will ask questions to members of Costa's cabinet at a townhall meeting celebrating the 2 year mark of the PS-led government. The people participating in the townhall were, or will be paid, 200 euros for their presence, plus travel and food expenses are also covered. Aximage polling company was responsible for choosing voters, says the newspaper.

The PSD has already asked the PM to cancel this townhall. Luís Montenegro, former PSD caucus chairman, said the issue is that this "a formal meeting of an organ of sovereignty, not party action or any association."

The only member of the government responding to this controversy was the Health minister, Adalberto Campos Ferreira. The minister is unaware if people were paid or not, adding that the accusation is absurd, and that sometimes lies are made up for some people to have attention.

[Mike88]

Last minute change in the 2018 budget:

The PS changed its vote about the clean or renewable energy tax, and will now align with PSD/CDS to struck down the BE proposal, that the Socialists voted in favour on Friday night. The BE is accusing the PS of a "sad U-turn" and that the government didn't had the balls to go against the energy lobby.

Also, PAN has also changed its overall vote on the budget, and will vote in favour instead of abstaining.

[Mike88]

Voting intentions since November 2015:



The PS seems to have lost their momentum, but it's still unclear if the trend is positive for the PSD. The next polls, to be released in the next few days, will give us an answer, and then there's how much impact the next PSD leader, to be elected in January, will have in the PSD voting intentions.

[Mike88]

Mário Centeno, the finance minister, will run for chairman of the Eurogroup:


Mário Centeno speaking in Parliament.

The government announced today that Portugal will present Mário Centeno, the finance minister, as a candidate for the Eurogroup leadership. According to the media, Mr Centeno has the support of Germany, Italy, France and Spain, although there are 3 other candidates in the race. According to some financial newspapers, like the Financial Times, Mário Centeno is seen as the clear favourite to lead the Eurogroup.

The news was received with little surprise, as this a story went back and forward many times during the last few months, but pundits and commentators are questioning if this is really good for the government, and for Mr Centeno as well, because BE and PCP are fiercely against the EU fiscal and monetary policies and have been pressuring heavily the government in the last few weeks, especially in the 2018 budget vote.

[DavidB.]

Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad suggests that Centeno is supported by the Netherlands as well, which apparently infuriated Luxembourgish liberal candidate Pierre Gramegna.

How do you think about Centeno?

[Mike88]

Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad suggests that Centeno is supported by the Netherlands as well, which apparently infuriated Luxembourgish liberal candidate Pierre Gramegna.

How do you think about Centeno?

He's that kind of Finance minister who could easily serve in a center-right or a center-left government. His fiscal policies would be perfectally fine for a PSD led government, at the same, he has been very lucky with the current economic situation of the country. At the same time, he has showed proofs that politically he's not very wise, as the infamous Caixagate scandal early this year demonstrates.

Except for the money captivations, which is weird a center-left government captivates more money than a center-right government, he has been an average finance minister but, certainly, one of the best ministers in Costa's cabinet. The main problem of his candidacy, and most likely election, is the BE/CDU feelings about it. They are against the candidacy as they say it will not help Portugal and then you have the current bad mood between PS and BE/CDU, that some pundits say could escalate during 2018 and then, who knows, early elections.

[Mike88]

About the PSD leadership race:

Campaign posters, or slogans, from the 2 candidates running:

Rui Rio

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Pedro Santana Lopes

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[Mike88]

Mário Centeno elected new Eurogroup chairman:

Mr Centeno was elected on the 2nd round with 10 votes out of the 19 available. He also got 8 votes in the 1st round. He will succeed Jeroen Dijssembloem on January 13th.

[Mike88]

Parties reactions to Centeno's election:

PS: " It is very important at a time when the future of the European Union is being discussed" and "We are no longer at the stage where the only possible policy in the European Union is austerity".

PSD: "Portugal is now even more committed to European rules, European discipline." The party is also pleased because "the policies of rigor and budgetary consolidation, will not falter and will continue on the path outlined, by us, since 2011".

CDS: "Much attention will be given to the coherence that will exist between what was said by the PS in recent years, and what will now be the performance of Mário Centeno in the Eurogroup, with regard to the euro.

PCP: "We warn of the use that the PS Government, in the context of its options and in line with the PSD and the CDS, will make of this decision to accentuate the refusal or limitations to the measures necessary for the development of the country".

BE: "The question that the Portuguese people make is whether Mário Centeno, being Portuguese and belonging to the PS, can make a difference in this institution that has only represented attacks on democracy and more austerity."

[Mike88]

PSD threatens to vote against the PS's bill on the European common defense mechanism:

After the PSD advised the PS not to put, in the bill, the prospect of a common European army, which was rebuked by the Socialists, the Social Democrats are threatening to vote against the PS's bill on the European common defense mechanism. The bill proposed by the PS says that Portugal is in favour of an European army, and also in favour of the specialization of the various branches of the national Armed Forces. The PSD opposes these 2 points and, if they are not scrapped, the party will vote in line with CDU and BE, who are also against the bill.

Nonetheless, if the bill fails in Parliament, that doesn't mean that Portugal will be out of the European common defense mechanism, or PESCO, since that decision is, ultimately, the responsibility of the Government.