Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Costa makes the biggest government reshuffle in his term: New ministers of Health, Economy, Culture and Defense.

Hours after the government approved the final draft of the 2019 budget, Costa announced he had reshuffled his cabinet and dismiss the ministers of Health, Economy and Culture. The new ministers are the following:

 
New ministers: Top left: João Gomes Cravinho; Top right: Marta Temido; Bottom left: Graça Fonseca; Bottom right: Pedro Siza Vieira.

-Economy minister: Pedro Siza Vieira

-Culture minister: Graça Fonseca

-Defense minister: João Gomes Cravinho

-Health minister: Marta Temido

The new ministers will be sworn in next Monday morning.

[Mike88]

Secretary of state for Energy is also out:

It seems that Hurricane Leslie, that made landfall in Portugal last night, has also hit the government. After Costa ousted 3 of his ministers and chose new ones, 2 women and 1 men, the secretary of energy, Jorge Seguro Sanches, will also leave the government. Mr Sanches has recently been involved in many controversial nominations to the energy regulation sector. It's unclear if this has anything to do with his departure from Costa government.

Is Costa's reshuffle complete, or will more governmental members be ousted? We'll see.

[Mike88]

Party leaders reactions to Costa's major government reshuffle:

Rui Rio (PSD): "The PM has acknowledged that the PSD, in a way, was right in the areas of Health, Defense and Economy. (...) However, he left out Education, and that means he thinks things are OK in the education sector and we know everything is not OK.(...) Also, a doubt arises, did the ministers exited on their own, left because of disagreements with the 2019 budget, or were ousted by the PM? This question should be answered by the PM."

Assunção Cristas (CDS): "This reshuffle shows how weak António Costa is right now.(...) Who needs to be reshuffled is António Costa as he doesn't have the stature to be governing Portugal".

Both PCP and BE weren't informed by Costa of the major government reshuffle.

Jerónimo de Sousa (PCP): "Who knows about the life of the convent, it's who goes there." Meaning it's Costa's decision but, he added that what's important is the policies not the people leading the ministries and that is what the PCP is worried.

Catarina Martins (BE): "The country was caught a little unprepared"

Heloísa Apolónia (PEV): "We regret that this governmental reshuffle happened just before the discussion of the 2019 budget.(...) The timing doesn't seem adequate."

André Silva (PAN): "The government choose the best time to make a governmental reshuffle because it will not become the center of a political debate."

[Mike88]

The 2019 budget was delivered to Parliament:

The 2019 budget was delivered, yesterday, to Parliament by the finance minister, Mário Centeno. The budget predicts an economic growth of 2.2% in 2019, an unemployment rate of 6.3%, a reduction of the public debt to 118.5% and a deficit of 0.2%, meaning almost a balance budget. Mário Centeno says that the budget doesn't has any electoral policies and that what wins elections are good and credible economic policies like the 2019 budget proposes. The PM, António Costa, also hailed the budget proposal and gave a response towards the opposition saying " many people did not believe that we would be here to present the fourth budget".


Mário Centeno delivering the budget to the Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues.

But the budget also has other policies, fiscal and social, of high relevance. The main policies are the following:

- An extraordinary pension adjustment of 10 or 6 euros for pensioners with pensions equal to or less than around 450 euros;

- Reduction of the value of tuition fees in college;

- Extension of free textbooks for all compulsory schooling;

- Recruitment of 1,000 workers with higher education to rejuvenate and strengthen the Public Administration;

- First installment of the housing tax will be reduced in 100 euros and get paid in May;

- 50% IRS discount for returning migrants;

- Increase in the value of family allowance according to age, in the first six years of life;

- Reduction of VAT on tickets for live shows: 6% in Mainland Portugal, 4% in the Azores and 5% in Madeira;

- Lower costs to public transportation tickets and passes. Families will only have to spent no more than 80 euros in Public transportation across the country. Tickets for children below 12 years old will be free;

- Reduction of VAT on electricity, from 23% to 6%, for households with contracted electrical power that not exceeds 3.45 kVA;

Parties have already reacted to the budget goals and proposals. PSD says the 2019 budget is resemble of the nefarious electoral 1999 and 2009 budgets, respectively from António Guterres and José Sócrates. The party added that next year budget is a wasted opportunity. CDS also criticizes the budget, saying "it is more of the same" and that Costa "gives with one hand and takes with the other".

On the other hand, the PS rejects any kind of "electoralism" in the budget and says that the 2019 budget "accomplishes and consolidates the successes that for the opposition were impossible". PCP says that the budget has some positive measures but that is still heavily limited by the options of the PS, while BE says that net year's budget "doesn't demonstrate everything we wanted, but it has fair and good measures for the economy".

[Mike88]

Some controversies involving ministers after Costa's big reshuffle:

Pedro Siza Vieira, new Economy minister, is once again in the middle of a controversy. This time, it's because he's married with the president of the Association of Hoteliers of Portugal, a big association involved in tourism, and Siza Vieira oversees the tourism policy area. The government refuses any kind of incompatibility and, at first, downplayed the case. But, pressed by reporters in Parliament, Mr Siza Vieira said he will excuse himself, in the future, in any dealings involving the Association of Hoteliers of Portugal and, once again, refused any incompatibility.

The husband of the new Health minister has resigned from the presidency of the National Health Council. Marta Temido's husband, Jorge Simões, alleged personal reasons for his resignation. The presidency of National Health Council is an office nominated by the council of ministers at the advice of the Health minister. Everthing points that this resignation is to prevent any kind of incompatibilities.

Also, another controversy, this one surrounding pensions. Just after the 2019 budget was announced, it was understood that workers that asked for early pensions, would be less punished, but it seems that was false. The government approved legislation to punish early pensions in 2019. This caught everyone by surprise, particularly PCP and BE, because they hailed the announcement of an ease on early pensions. Now they they are upset with the Social Security minister and accuse him of creating a "huge mess". The minister proposes creating a transition period for changes in pensions.

[crals]

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

Good to see you back, Crals. Would like to hear your thoughts on how is Azores politics right now. The PSD-Azores just elected a new leader. How do you rate him? Do you think he has any chances against Vasco Cordeiro in 2020?

Thank you! And thank you for the updates too, this thread is a better news source than our national newspapers.

Sorry for not replying sooner, I meant to but forgot about it until now. About Alexandre Gaudêncio, I'm afraid I (and most people in my island) don't really know him. Which is bad for PSD, as Cordeiro has both name recognition and the strong position of the national PS helping him. I don't know how people in São Miguel feel about him however, but he seems to be pretty popular in his municipality judging on his results on local elections (as you probably know he's the mayor of Ribeira Grande and won it from PS in 2013). Who knows what can change until 2020, but so far I see no reason why PS wouldn't win again to be honest.

[Mike88]

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

Good to see you back, Crals. Would like to hear your thoughts on how is Azores politics right now. The PSD-Azores just elected a new leader. How do you rate him? Do you think he has any chances against Vasco Cordeiro in 2020?

Thank you! And thank you for the updates too, this thread is a better news source than our national newspapers.

Sorry for not replying sooner, I meant to but forgot about it until now. About Alexandre Gaudêncio, I'm afraid I (and most people in my island) don't really know him. Which is bad for PSD, as Cordeiro has both name recognition and the strong position of the national PS helping him. I don't know how people in São Miguel feel about him however, but he seems to be pretty popular in his municipality judging on his results on local elections (as you probably know he's the mayor of Ribeira Grande and won it from PS in 2013). Who knows what can change until 2020, but so far I see no reason why PS wouldn't win again to be honest.

Thanks for the feedback.

Interesting analysis of Azores politics. Well, about name recognition, Gaudêncio has 2 years to make him noticeable for the Azores electorate, but the issue is, like you said, what will the mood be in 2020. In 2012, the PSD, in my opinion, had a real shot of taking back Azores but the whole "SS contribution fiasco" and the following mass protests, blew up everything for the PSD. It doesn't help that polling in Azores is also almost impossible.

Also, is Cordeiro popular as president, or people, with currently no strong alternative, just became accustomed to him? We know a lot about Madeira on this issue, Azores not so much.

[Mike88]

2019 budget update:

Parties are already position themselves for the November budget vote. Today, PSD announced they will vote against the budget, with Rui Rio saying that the 2019 budget is, in summary, "a budget orgy" with lots of electoralism. On the other hand, BE announced that they will vote in favour of the budget, although they acknowledge that the budget has its limitations. CDS has already announced that they will vote against the budget, like the PSD. That leaves out PCP which hasn't made a decision yet, but it's basically a forgone conclusion.

That said the 2019 budget has currently 105 votes in favour, plus the very likely 17 votes of PCP/PEV, and 107 votes against.

[Mike88]

Political update:

The last few days, or week, has been dominated, essentially, by the 2019 budget fallout and subsequent reactions, and confusions from the government. But, other stories, with some relevance, have also dominated headlines.

First, it was the resignation of Helena Roseta, PS MP, from the Parliamentary housing committee after the PS asked, for the 3rd consecutive time, a postponement of the parliamentary vote on the proposals from the committee. Ms Roseta said that between her conscience and her duty, she opted for her conscience and resigned. Se added that the PS's subsequent delays hit with the warnings from many institutions, like the PS controlled Lisbon city hall, that the housing question is deeply urgent.


Helena Roseta, PS MP, announcing her resignation to the press.

The vote is therefore scheduled for December, but the PS has nominated a new chairman for the committee and it seems that the controversy could still be present for a few more days. The PS choose MP Hugo Pires as new committee chairman, but it seems that Mr Pires has a lot of dealings with real estate. He owns 50% of a real estate company, is also owner and manager of an architecture, engineering and construction company that also develops tourist accommodation. So, yeah, this may stick around for a few more days. We'll see.

The other story is Cavaco Silva's new memoirs. The former Prime Minister and President of the Republic has published the 2nd edition of his memoirs and he trashed everybody, expect Pedro Passos Coelho. The 2nd edition focus on the years between 2011 and 2016. Cavaco trashes his long time foe, Paulo Portas, saying his actions in the 2013 governmental crisis were "childlike", "irresponsible" and that he was "unpatriotic". Cavaco also hits on António Costa, current PM. Cavaco labels Costa as "an artist of never saying no" and "someone who pushes for later the problems of the economy and the country." Passos Coelho, former PM, is the only that is saved. Although Cavaco says that Passos is a bit naive, he admits that "he ushered a new cycle of growth and improvement of the Portuguese well-being".


Cover of Cavaco Silva's new book.

The reactions were expected. While PSD is silent, Rui Rio says he didn't read the book yet so he will not comment, the PS is furious. Many PS members and MPs criticize the lack of "sense of duty or state" of Cavaco Silva because he bashes people and politicians he had private conversations. Costa, on the other hand, decline to comment saying he didn't read the book also, but said that, for him, conversations between him and a head of state are just between both and no one else.

And then there's some other smaller stories: A candidate for the Socialist Youth leadership was caught making stuff up about her CV. Maria Begonha CV says she has a master degree in political science when she never finished it, her birth date is also modified and she made up that she led the students association of the Faculty of Social and Human Sciences (FCSH), Universidade Nova de Lisboa. Still, a funny story.

And then there's a controversy between the Interior minister and police unions. Last week, 3 dangerous felons escaped from a court in Porto after a police officer authorized one of the felons to say goodbay to his girlfriend. The felon stole the keys from the police and freed the other two. For 24 hours, a huge police operation was developed to find them. They were caught in a camping camp 34 kms (21 miles) from Porto city. During the moment, some police officers took photos of the 3 felons when they were caught and the minister was shocked by the police action and called it "unacceptable". Police unions were outraged by the ministers remarks and published more photos of elderly people that were, allegedly, beaten up by those 3 felons. But it seems that the photos were fake. Of course, this escalated into a full "twitter war" between the minister and police unions.


The photo, of the 3 felons in the moment of capture, in the center of the controversy.

And now, anti-racist organizations have published a photo of one the leaders of the police unions, the 2nd largest, in a meeting with the PNR, National Renewal Party, the biggest right-wing party in Portugal similar to FN or AfD, in 2009. The union leader met at least twice with the leader of PNR to discuss and alert to the situation of the police force. The union in question has already sent a memo to the media saying they "reject the ideas and policies proposed by the PNR".

[Mike88]

Santana Lopes' s new party has been legalized by the Constitutional Court:

Santana Lopes's party, the Alliance, has been legalized by the Constitutional Court. The announcement was made by Santana Lopes, via facebook, and then confirmed by the Court's spokesperson. It is yet to be announced the abbreviation the party will have. The Alliance is now, officially, the 23rd registered party in Portugal. The party may also appear in polling data in the next few weeks.

[Mike88]

Tancos scandal is back: Costa is forced to deny he had any knowledge of the cover-up:

Today was reported that the former minister of defense, Azeredo Lopes, did in fact know about the cover-up of the stolen weapons in Tancos air base. The allegation was made by his former chief-of-staff, in court, as he explained the minister was informed of the memo that explained the cover-up via WhatsApp. After these allegations became public, Costa was pressed by reporters to say if the minister did informed him or not. Costa denied any knowing of the cover-up memo and wants anyone involved in this to be punished.

But he's not convincing the opposition. Both PSD and CDS believe that Costa had to know because if the minister knew it, the PM had to know it. Rui Rio, PSD leader, says that Costa might have know because it wouldn't be normal a minister not informing the PM, but he refuses to ask Costa to testify in the Parliamentary committee to investigate the Tancos cover-up. A case to follow, no doubt.

Also, a lot of protests and strikes have occurred in the last few days and more will happen in the coming days. Yesterday, police unions protested in front of Parliament to demand more investment in the police force and wage increases. More than 5,000 police members protested and the protest escalated a bit, as intervention police was called in force to Parliament.


Moment when police protesters knocked down protection grids.

Protesters knocked down protection grids and the intervention police had to prevent police protesters of climbing the staircase in front of Parliament. This protest was reminiscent of the 2013 police protests when the intervention police was unable to control protesters and they climbed the whole staircase in front of Parliament.

Costa's government also faced the 1st general strike, in his term, that united the two biggest unions in Portugal, UGT and CGTP. Many schools, hospitals, courts and other public places had to be shut down or opened with very few workers. The media is also saying that Costa's government has faced almost the same number of strikes the previous PSD/CDS government did in the same time period. But the details are different. Strikes during Costa have been more weak and less challenging for the government, while during Passos Coelho strikes had a huge effect on the government's actions. Nonetheless, more strikes are scheduled for next week. For example, teachers will go on strike, again, next Monday, October 29th.

[Mike88]

Some controversies also surrounding PSD and CDS:

First, CDS. Assunção Cristas is in a bit of "hot waters" because of her remarks regarding the Brazilian election this Sunday. In an interview to Renascença Radio, Ms Cristas said that if she were Brazilian, in a choice between Haddad and Bolsonaro, she would vote null or skip to vote. Many media editorials are criticizing Cristas for her remarks as they contradict the opinions of some of her supporters in CDS. For example, Francisco Mendes da Silva, member of Cristas's team, wrote a column called "Being a conservative in times of cholera", and Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, her deputy, wrote also a column called "Reject Bolsonaro".

Rui Rio is also involved in a small controversy regarding his policies towards the Justice system. Rio is accused of hidding his Justice policies, after making an attempt to garner the support of all parties in Parliament to reform the Justice system, which failed. Some of the PSD policies that came out are, for example, the abolition of district prosecutors. Justice organizations seem to be very unhappy with Rio's proposals.

And also, unrelated with the above, the Portuguese government has sent a memo to Juncker saying that Portugal will continue to change its hour twice a year and refuses to choose only one hour, either Winter or Summer, for the whole year.

[Mike88]

The 2019 budget was approved in the general debate:


Moment when center-left/left-wing MPs vote to approve the budget.

The 2019 budget has passed its first phase as it was approved in the budget general debate, today, in Parliament. The budget had the favourable votes of all the left parties, only the right voted against:

In Favour: PS, BE, PCP, PEV, PAN
Against: PSD, CDS

During the debate some new policies were announced: the "controversial" tax on petroleum products will be reduced in cars only run in gasoline, diesel cars are out of the reduction and lower costs and tickets for public transportation will be extended for the whole country. The opposition, PSD and CDS, fiercely criticized the budget, labeling it as an "illusion" and a hoax". The PSD caucus leader, Fernando Negrão, even called Costa's 2019 budget as the "heir of José Sócrates".

The left parties, particularly PCP and BE, were happy with the budget but still say it's not enough. Both parties are focused on changing, or adding, more of their policies in the next phase of the budget approval, the specialty debate.

[windjammer]

Could BE join the govt in the foreaseable future?

[Mike88]

Could BE join the govt in the foreaseable future?

It depends on who the PS leader is. It's one of the BE goals, no doubt, but Costa isn't very willing to nominate BE politicians as part of his cabinet and, furthermore, relations between PS and BE have deteriorated a bit lately. The PS seems more comfortable talking and negotiating with PCP than BE.

In the next Parliament, don't expect, in my view, a formal PS-BE coalition, or even a PS-PCP coalition. In the event of a PS minority, either the PS will go left or right depending on the legislation or a repetition of the current agreement, which PCP and BE don't want to repeat in its current form as they would like a more deep and detail agreement with the PS. Now, a future PS led by, lets say, Pedro Nuno Santos, maybe a formal PS-BE coalition would quite be possible. Under Costa, it's unlikely.

[Mike88]

Interesting graphics about the polarization, or not, between left and right in Portugal on some issues:

(The data is from the European Social Survey, 2016)

Esquerda - Left
Direita- Right
Concordo totalmente - Totally agree
Concordo - Agree
Nem concorda nem discorda - Neither agree nor disagree
Discorda - Disagree
Discorda totalmente - Totally disagree

Graphic 1: "The government should take measures to reduce wage gaps"


Graphic 2: "When jobs are few, men should take priority and occupy them in relation to women."


These and more graphics here: https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1058343468442025984

[Mike88]

2019 election dates start to be defined:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, met yesterday, during his visit to Madeira islands, with parties represented in the regional parliament to discuss possible dates for the 2019 Madeira regional elections. The date that received the most consensus in 22 September, the earliest possible date to hold the elections. The President acknowledges that the elections are likely to be called for that date. PSD, CDS and JPP defended the 22 September date because it leaves the Madeira campaign out of the national campaign, while PS and BE are OK with 22 September but would prefer that the regional elections be held on the same day as the general elections. 

Therefore, as of now, the probable calendar for the 2019 elections in Portugal is the following:

European Parliament elections: 26 May 2019
Madeira regional elections: 22 September 2019
General elections: 6 October 2019

[Mike88]

Local by-election to be held in the parish of Travassô e Óis da Ribeira, Águeda:

A local by-election has been asked to be held by the president of the parish of Travassô e Óis da Ribeira, Águeda, Aveiro district. The PSD minority resigned after failing to negociate, after numerous attempts, with the opposition the composition of the local parish government. The parish has around 2,300 inhabitants. The by-election could still happen this year, in mid-December, or in the early days of January 2019.

In 2017, the results in this parish were the following:

41.1% PSD, 4 seats
36.0% Independent, 4
15.6% PS, 1
  1.9% CDU
  5.4% Invalid/Blank

68.8% Turnout

[Mike88]

Political update:

The week was dominated by the "José Silvano case", the current general-secretary of the PSD and the weird way Parliament works. Last weekend, Expresso newspaper reported that during 2 days in October, Mr Silvano, a member of parliament, registered in the floor of parliament while he was in... Vila Real, 400 km (249 miles) from Lisbon. To be registered in the floor of Parliament, MPs are given a "secret password" to login. And it seems that Mr Silvano had someone signed in his name for him, just like in university campus. First, the story had little impact. Rui Rio, PSD leader, downplayed the case but it got big when Mr Silvano, this week, registered in the floor of Parliament and left a few minutes after. Then he made a series of statements that made things just worse, as the explanations were just ridiculous.


José Silvano speaking to reporters.

Rui Rio, continued to support his general-secretary, but refused to answer question from reporters about this case. In the EPP congress, when asked, once again, about Silvano, Rio answered in German: "Ich weiss nicht, was Sie sagen", meaning, i don't know what you're talking about. But today, the case got its climax, sort of. A PSD MP, Emília Cerqueira, said it was her that used Mr Silvano computer in the floor of Parliament and "accidentally" registered Silvano as present. She added that she's talking now because the press, and others, are denigrating Mr Silvano's name, that sharing passwords in Parliament is quite common between MPs and that everyone is acting if they were all "offended virgins".

The case has already resurfaced the internal divisions in the PSD. The opposition of Rio within the PSD is attacking Rio for his handling of the case and say his image of a clean and transparent politician is just bogus. Other curious note was the silent reaction of all parties in Parliament. Few, or no, MPs from PS, BE, PCP, CDS, PEV and PAN made strong criticisms or attacks about the "Silvano case". It seems that sharing "private passwords" in Parliament is a real thing.


Floor of the Assembly of the Republic.

Another story, about MPs and the way Parliament works, broke this week. The DA office is investigating several MPs from all parties about alleged forgery of place of residence in order to gain subsidies of displacement and other costs paid by Parliament. According to Visão magazine, a few months ago, the DA office asked for the private information of many MPs, although it's unclear if it's all the 230 MPs or not. In the last year, many MPs have been involved in these kind of irregularities: Carlos César (PS), Duarte Pacheco (PSD), Clara Marques Mendes (PSD), Elza Soares (PS), Heitor Sousa (BE). All received, apparently, travel subsidies and other kind of payments although they live permanently in Lisbon.

Also, the Portuguese version of politifact has been created: https://poligrafo.sapo.pt/fact-checks

[Mike88]

BE convention happening this weekend in Lisbon:


Global view of the BE convention hall in Casal Vistoso pavilion, Lisbon.

The BE is holding its 11th convention during this weekend in Lisbon. The convention will elect, or reelect, party leaders and there's just one list headed by their current leader, Catarina Martins. But, the convention is being dominated by many attacks and criticisms towards the PS and António Costa. The reason is quite simple: with a divided PSD and a CDS with no realistic chance of becoming a major player, the need for many leftwing voters to vote PS, to prevent a PSD victory, doesn't exist. So, the goal of BE is to hold on to those leftwing voters and attract a few more to prevent an absolute majority of the PS. To do this, the party is hailing some achievements of the current government as their own and saying, at the same time, that if the PS had, or has a majority next year, they would swung to the right and betray the left.

Therefore, the BE strategy for the 2019 elections, EP, General and Regional, is to attack the PS for being to centrist and remind voters, particularly center-left and leftwing voters, of the dangers of a PS majority, and the effects it had in the past.

[Mike88]

Local by-election called for Talhadas, Sever do Vouga, Aveiro district:

A local by-election has been called for Talhadas parish, Sever do Vouga, to be held on 20 January 2019. The parish, with around almost 1,200 inhabitants, had a minority PSD government that failed to negotiate with the opposition the composition of the new parish government. In 2017, the results were close, close, close as the PSD won with just 2 more votes than CDS. The results were the following:

38.5% PSD, 4 seats
38.3% CDS, 4 seats
17.7% PS, 1 seat
  1.7% CDU
  3.8% Invalid/Blank

74.4% Turnout

The Travassô e Óis da Ribeira by-election, Águeda, Aveiro district, may also be held in early January 2019 and, with that said and if this by-election also occurs in January 2019, the nationwide overall results of the 2018 local by-elections were the following: (compared with 2017)

31.0% PS (-3.3), 10 seats (-2), 0 parishes (-2)
25.4% CDU (+5.1), 7 (+1), 1 (+1)
22.9% Indy (+13.6), 13 (+8), 2 (+1)
10.9% PSD (-14.1), 9 (-7), 2 (nc)
  7.3% CDS (+1.4), 4 (nc), 0 (nc)
  2.5% Invalid/Blank (-2.7)

38.8% Turnout (-14.1)

[Mike88]

Political update:

The week has been dominated by the aftershocks of the "José Silvano case" in the PSD, but also the ongoing controversy surrounding bullfighting in the PS. To add also that PAN, People-Animals-Nature, has some its high profile politician being investigated by the police for being part of an extremist group that defends animals.

First, the PSD. The Silvano case faded as the days passed but its clear that the case has reignited the divisions within the PSD. After the ludicrous explanation done by an MP that said it was her that "accidentally" registered Silvano in Parliament, Rui Rio tried to change gear and talk about his policies. But, early this week, he had to make damage control after someone told newspapers that in a meeting with party members, Rio "allegedly" said he never lets his friends fall. It now seems that Rio really never made this statement as he, and the PSD, vehemently denied that he ever said such a thing. Rio, and his team in the PSD, defend that these kind of "fake news" have the sole purpose of damaging Rio for good just before the crucial 2019 elections.


Rui Rio in the Social Democratic Workers (TSD) congress last weekend.

Then, the PS and its internal divide towards bullfighting. All of this started a few weeks ago when the new Culture minister, Graça Fonseca, did an interview when she attacked those who enjoy bullfighting and said that the increase of VAT in bullfights is a question of "civility". As expected, pró-bullfights groups lashed out against the minister, but the most curious reaction was the outrage she received by many PS politicians and PS local officials. One of them was Manuel Alegre, former MP and presidential candidate in 2006 and 2011, which wrote an op-ed letter in Público newspaper pleading to Costa to stop all the political correctness and to defend bullfights as they are a cultural part of Portugal. He also said the kind of statements made by Ms Graça Fonseca, make way to people like Trump or Bolsonaro to win people's minds.


Costa hugging the awarded "forcado" in 2010.

Costa responded to Alegre also in an op-ed letter in Público newspaper saying he's anti-bulfighting but he, although it shocks him, doesn't dare to forbid bullfights on RTP, the public network. The letter divided even more the PS, with many PS mayors in regions where bullfighting is very popular criticizing the government. Costa had also to make damage control after a video of him awarding a "forcado" and wathicing a bullfight, in 2010, was released. Costa explained he wasn't there as a "private individual" but as mayor of Lisbon. But, today, the PS caucus group presented a proposal to maintain the VAT on bullfights on 6%. Costa, it seems, was stunned by the move of his own party and says that he doesn't know if he will impose an intention of vote in his own caucus.


Logo of PAN, People-Animals-Nature

And finally, PAN. Some members of the party are being investigated by the police for being part of an extreme group that defends animals. The group is being investigated for crimes such as terrorism and armed robbery. The story was reported by TVI, this evening. The sole PAN MP, André Silva, has said the party has nothing to do with this group, but several key figures of the party are suspects, like Cristina Rodrigues, former chief of staff of the party and PAN candidate for Sintra city in the 2017 local elections.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from November:

Vote share %:

41.8% PS (+0.4)
26.8% PSD (-0.7)
  7.7% BE (-0.3)
  7.0% CDS (-0.7)
  7.0% CDU (+0.1)
  1.8% PAN (+0.7)
  7.9% Others/Invalid (+0.5)

Popularity ratings: (approval/disapproval; margin and change)

71.8%/7.0% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa +64.8% (+0.5)
50.1%/15.7% António Costa +34.4% (+0.7)
38.9%/29.1% Rui Rio +9.8% (-0.1)
36.2%/32.7% Assunção Cristas +3.5% (-1.7)
31.7%/30.1% Jerónimo de Sousa +1.6% (-1.6)
30.5%/30.3% Catarina Martins +0.2% (-0.9)
29.5%/29.8% Government -0.3% (-0.6)

Other questions polled:

Q1: Do you think tickets for bullfighting should have a reduced VAT rate from 13% to 6%?

44.1% Yes
36.2% No
19.7% Undecided

Q2: About the Tancos scandal, do you think António Costa is being truthful?

47.9% Yes
36.3% No
15.8% Undecided

Q3: Also about the Tancos scandal, do you think Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is being truthful?

62.1% Yes
26.5% No
11.4% Undecided

Q4: Do you think Rui Rio did the right thing in defending José Silvano?

61.7% No
20.7% Yes
17.6% Undecided

Q5: Do you think the 2019 budget is an austerity one, an electoral one or neither?

45.7% Neither
31.5% An electoral one
12.3% An austerity one
10.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 7 and 14 November 2018. Polled 1,018 voters. MoE of 3.07%

[Mike88]

Aximage poll about the Tancos scandal:

Q1: Do you believe António Costa knew about the weapons cover-up?

52.5% Yes
38.0% No
  9.5% Undecided

Q2: And Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, do you believe he also knew about the weapons cover-up?

65.2% No
23.4% Yes
11.4% Undecided

Poll conducted between 9 and 12 November. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Interesting. Conflicting numbers between Eurosondagem and Aximage about the role of Costa in the Tancos scandal.

[Mike88]

Parliament will work on legislation to fight against fake news:

MPs, from all parties in Parliament, want to work on policies to fight against "fake news" in Portugal. Some MPs want media outlets to be more active in analyzing what's fake or not and to do many fact-checks. Other parties, like the PSD, want schools and teachers to alert children about fake news and how to spot them, and propose creating educational campaigns to alert general voters. This follows also a campaign started by the Electoral Commission (CNE) to prevent the spreading of fake news during the 2019 elections.

Also, today, newspapers are reporting that another member of Costa' cabinet is being investigated by the police. The new chief of staff of the new minister of defense, Paulo Lourenço, is being investigated for, allegedly, bad management of public money. According to Correio da Manhã newspaper, Mr Gonçalves used almost 3 million euros from an account from the S. Paulo consulate, Brazil, that were never accounted for. He is one of 3 diplomats that are being investigated as the police investigation also spreads to suspicions of bad management of public funds in Portuguese embassies in Berlin and Bangkok.