Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

How come Portugal is the only country or one of the few that social democracy seems to be in reasonably good shape, not collapsing?  Anything the Socialist party doing differently than other social democratic parties in Europe or is it due to unique circumstances in Portugal.

It's more of the unique circumstances of Portugal, although anything is possible nowadays. Portugal doesn't have immigration problems, for example, which could have led to an increase of extreme movements. In fact, the main worries of the population are the economy, corruption and the state of welfare state. Plus, the PS is pursuing policies very similar, some copypaste, to the PSD ones which deflate any arguments PSD or CDS have against them, and, with a growing economy, for now, the PS can bought the silence of PCP and BE in many policy areas, like cuts to the NHS. For now, this is the situation.

But, it can change. We don't know how the economy will perform in the next few months, the latest signs are very troubling with exports falling almost 9% and imports increasing 11% due to strikes in Setúbal harbour that prevented Autoeuropa of exporting cars, and Germany, according, to some reports, could be on the verge of a recession. The PS will win this year's election, but the question is how will Costa act in his second term. Will he be a decisive leader, persuing big reforms on the economy? or will he be indecisive and freeze in the face of difficulties? If the PS acts like they did in 1999/2000 and 2009/2010, and with a renovated PSD, probably, they could face serious electoral challenges ahead.

[Mike88]

It's on, it seems:

Montenegro will run and already has signatures for a National Council to remove Rio

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If this is really confirmed, a leadership election would, probably, take place in mid-March and a party congress in early, mid-April. We'll see.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership crisis: Luís Montenegro will announce his candidacy tomorrow but he may not be alone:

Luís Montenegro will announce, tomorrow, his candidacy for the PSD leadership and challenge Rio to call a snap election immediately. But it seems that another PSD MP, Miguel Morgado, is also considering running if a snap election is called. So, Rio could face a divided opposition, even though Morgado has 0% chances. Rio has made no reaction yet, and for now, it isn't schedule any reaction from the PSD leader.

Nonetheless, reactions from high profile PSD members show a divide about Montenegro's challenge: Some, like Pedro Duarte, former JSD leader and also a possible candidate for the leadership, says that anything is better than the current situation, or Ângelo Correia or João Montenegro, former Santana Lopes campaign chairman in the 2018 PSD elections, say this is a huge mistake that could damage "irreversibly" the PSD.

In order for a snap election to happen, Rio needs to lose the vote of no confidence in a national party council, and that's the big question right now. And i suspect Rio will use every single tools he has, as party chairman, to prevent any leadership election. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from January:

Vote share %:

37.7% PS (+0.7)
24.1% PSD (-0.6)
  9.4% CDS (+0.7)
  8.8% BE (-1.2)
  7.2% CDU (+0.9)
  3.5% PAN (+2.1)*
  1.2% Alliance (new)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (-4.6)
  2.8% Undecided (-0.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

15.9 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.9)
10.2 António Costa (+0.5)
  9.8 Catarina Martins (-0.8 )
  9.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.3)
  7.7 Assunção Cristas (-0.4)
  6.4 Rui Rio (nc)

Preferred PM:

55.4% António Costa (+0.1)
26.9% Rui Rio (-1.2)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2019. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%

*Compared with the 2015 election results.

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro officially announces his candidacy and dares Rio: "Don't be scared of a confrontation"

Luís Montenegro has officially announced he's in the race for the PSD leadership and wants Rio to call a snap election ASAP. During his speech, he wasn't shy as he described the current situation of the PSD: "the state of the party is bad, worrisome and irreversible with the current leadership. The PSD has resigned and is complacent towards António Costa. Rui Rio failed." He added that a year ago, no one could imagine that the party would be without causes, motivation and on the verge of a huge electoral defeat the could damage the party status as major nationwide political force. Montenegro also said he's ready to "galvanize the Portuguese people around a time of hope".

Montenegro had planned to appear almost alone in the room in the CCB, Belém Cultural Center, a landmark of Cavaco Silva's 10 year tenure as Prime Minister, as only media personnel was invited, but some PSD members and supporters showed up anyway. At the same time, it was revealed that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will meet with Rio, secretly it seems, in Porto city. What will Marcelo say to Rio is a mystery, as is Rio's reaction to all of this. Only his closest members of his team have reacted and accuse Montenegro of a "coup".

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from January:

Vote share %:

40.0% PS (-1.8 )
24.8% PSD (-2.0)
  7.6% BE (-0.1)
  7.1% CDS (+0.1)
  7.1% CDU (+0.1)
  4.0% Alliance (new)
  1.9% PAN (+0.1)
  7.5% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 2 and 9 January 2019. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

[Mike88]

More data from the January Eurosondagem poll:

Approval ratings:



Other questions polled:

Q1: Do you agree that the DA High Council - which oversees prosecutors - should have more members elected by the political power than magistrates, as Rui Rio argues?

42.9% Yes
40.4% No
16.7% Undecided

Q2: How would you a rate a possible PS absolute majority in the 2019 elections?

30.9% Indifferent
30.7% Bad for the country
26.8% Good for the country
11.6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 2 and 9 January 2019. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

[Republican Left]

How come Portugal is the only country or one of the few that social democracy seems to be in reasonably good shape, not collapsing?  Anything the Socialist party doing differently than other social democratic parties in Europe or is it due to unique circumstances in Portugal.

It's more of the unique circumstances of Portugal, although anything is possible nowadays. Portugal doesn't have immigration problems, for example, which could have led to an increase of extreme movements. In fact, the main worries of the population are the economy, corruption and the state of welfare state. Plus, the PS is pursuing policies very similar, some copypaste, to the PSD ones which deflate any arguments PSD or CDS have against them, and, with a growing economy, for now, the PS can bought the silence of PCP and BE in many policy areas, like cuts to the NHS. For now, this is the situation.

But, it can change. We don't know how the economy will perform in the next few months, the latest signs are very troubling with exports falling almost 9% and imports increasing 11% due to strikes in Setúbal harbour that prevented Autoeuropa of exporting cars, and Germany, according, to some reports, could be on the verge of a recession. The PS will win this year's election, but the question is how will Costa act in his second term. Will he be a decisive leader, persuing big reforms on the economy? or will he be indecisive and freeze in the face of difficulties? If the PS acts like they did in 1999/2000 and 2009/2010, and with a renovated PSD, probably, they could face serious electoral challenges ahead.

Since it seems like the SP can rule with a grand coalition with BE and PCP, does that mean the PSD and their friends in the CDS are basically "underground" or subjected to "enduring minority" status, could this be an opportunity for both parties to shore up their base and support and rebuild the party with the hope of winning over the majority of the Portuguese maybe not in the next election but perhaps in the next generation? Also, if I may ask, how are you doing, how is the your new year going in Portugal? Did you visit any beautiful places in the country?

[Mike88]

How come Portugal is the only country or one of the few that social democracy seems to be in reasonably good shape, not collapsing?  Anything the Socialist party doing differently than other social democratic parties in Europe or is it due to unique circumstances in Portugal.

It's more of the unique circumstances of Portugal, although anything is possible nowadays. Portugal doesn't have immigration problems, for example, which could have led to an increase of extreme movements. In fact, the main worries of the population are the economy, corruption and the state of welfare state. Plus, the PS is pursuing policies very similar, some copypaste, to the PSD ones which deflate any arguments PSD or CDS have against them, and, with a growing economy, for now, the PS can bought the silence of PCP and BE in many policy areas, like cuts to the NHS. For now, this is the situation.

But, it can change. We don't know how the economy will perform in the next few months, the latest signs are very troubling with exports falling almost 9% and imports increasing 11% due to strikes in Setúbal harbour that prevented Autoeuropa of exporting cars, and Germany, according, to some reports, could be on the verge of a recession. The PS will win this year's election, but the question is how will Costa act in his second term. Will he be a decisive leader, persuing big reforms on the economy? or will he be indecisive and freeze in the face of difficulties? If the PS acts like they did in 1999/2000 and 2009/2010, and with a renovated PSD, probably, they could face serious electoral challenges ahead.

Since it seems like the SP can rule with a grand coalition with BE and PCP, does that mean the PSD and their friends in the CDS are basically "underground" or subjected to "enduring minority" status, could this be an opportunity for both parties to shore up their base and support and rebuild the party with the hope of winning over the majority of the Portuguese maybe not in the next election but perhaps in the next generation? Also, if I may ask, how are you doing, how is the your new year going in Portugal? Did you visit any beautiful places in the country?

That's the most likely scenario after the 2019 elections, and it isn't new. It happened in the PS after 1991, and in the PSD after 1999 and 2009. I wrote, a couple of months ago, that the 2021 local elections could be a real challenge for the PS as the have many mayors that are term limited in swing cities across the country and if the PSD solves it's internal situation until then, they can compete and perhaps win many of these cities back and force the PS to be in a similar situation as it was in 2001. But, of course, all of this depends on the state of the PSD. The situation in the party isn't new, we have seen it before, but so close to national election, it's a first. Montenegro's decision is dividing many critics of Rio as they say Montenegro has made a horrible decision and this may benefit Rio, but we will only know in the next few days.

Things have been OK. A lot of sunshine but really, really low temperatures just above 0ºC. Have had a lot of work, thankfully, so i haven't travel a lot lately.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio says NO to Montenegro, but calls for a vote of confidence in a national party council meeting:

Rui Rio has refused Luís Montenegero challenge of calling a snap leadership election and insted will call for a vote of confidence in national party council meeting. In a very harsh speech towards Montenegro and his internal opposition, Rio accuses Montenegro of only having "a personal agenda" and if he wanted to run, he had an opportunity a year ago and blew it. He added that Montenegro is irresponsible and that his actions prove he's not up for the job. He also accuses his internal opposition of giving more and more presents to the PS and António Costa with their constants attacks on him.

A national party council meeting, the most important council, between congresses, in the PSD, will meet, probably, in the next few days and we'll see where the needle drops.

[Mike88]

In other news: Parliament approves the legalization of working immigrants without documents:

Parliament approved a PCP bill that will solve the situation of many immigrants that work and live in Portugal but that have no documents, and therefore, are in a illegal situation. Immigrants who work, or live, in Portugal since July 2015 without any authorization will be legalized if they have work documents that proves they can live properly in Portugal. The bill passed with the votes of PCP, PEV, BE and PAN, but it was the abstention of PSD and PS that ultimately helped the bill pass. CDS was the only to vote against.

[Mike88]

PSD calls a snap national party council for Thursday, but the hour is creating some controversy:


A previous PSD council meeting held in April 2018.

It will be decided this week. The PSD has called a snap national party council meeting for this Thursday to begin at 5pm. In the agenda is the motion of confidence asked by Rui Rio, PSD leader, after Luís Montenegro challenged Rio for leadership elections. 135 council members will decide the future of Rui Rio. But, the calling of the meeting is creating some controversy. The hour, 5pm, is, for some PSD members, MPs and councillors too early and some accuse Rio of trying to make sure that only his supports come to the meeting. The meeting will be held in Porto, which, added with the time, could make voting really hard for some councillors. Some PSD MPs are pleading the PSD caucus leader, Fernando Negrão, to force Rio to, at least, change the hour to around 9pm on Thursday.

We'll see how the PSD council meeting ends, if it's held this week, and what outcome it will give to Rio and Montenegro.

[Mike88]

Observador newspaper analysis on the PSD national council vote:

In favour of Rui Rio: 50
Against Rui Rio: 28
Undecided: 57

[Mike88]

Decision day has arrived for the PSD. Councillors will decide the fate of Rui Rio as leader:

Today, more than 130 members of the PSD national council will vote on a motion of confidence asked by Rui Rio himself. However, the way the vote will occur is creating divisions in the party. Rio and his supporters want a hand raise vote, but Montenegro's supporters want a secret ballot. According to party rules, if at least 10% of the councillors ask for a secret ballot, the council president is obligated to accept a secret ballot. This may delay the council by many hours, and, in last resort, could force the calling of another national council meeting.

The council is expected to start after 5pm in a hotel in Porto city. According to Observador newspaper tracking, the current alignment seems the following:

In favour of Rui Rio: 57
Against Rui Rio: 29
Undecided: 48

And, with a big coincidence, the media is reporting that Luís Montenegro is being investigated by the DA of forgery of documents regarding the 2016 UEFA cup unpaid trips by MPs.

[Mike88]

While the PSD is in a national party council, as we speak, that will decide the fate of Rio, here's an interesting chart that shows the various party strength on social media:

Sum of party followers on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:


From here.

[Mike88]

Situation in the PSD national council:

75 members have asked to speak in the council and the speeches have varied from strong attacks towards Rio, strong attacks towards Montenegro and attacks on both. Nonetheless, the highlight of the night was the surprise support of Luís Filipe Menezes to Rui Rio, which stunned everybody. Menezes and Rio are, or were, longtime foes and Rio played a critical role in 2013 by not supporting Menezes in his bid for the mayorship of Porto city, dooming Menezes who placed 3rd. Menezes, in his speech, said he will never do what Rio did to him but he supports him and will fight for him in the 2019 election campaign. Rio was seen hugging Menezes after his speech.

The council is also being marked by the tense debate of how will the vote be performed: by hand raise or secret ballot. It's still unclear how this debate will end. Nonetheless, when it's midnight in Portugal, the PSD national council could probably end only in the early hours of the mourning, 4, 5 or 6am. Who knows:

https://twitter.com/RBaptistaLeite/status/1086052162982109185

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[Farmlands]

While the PSD is in a national party council, as we speak, that will decide the fate of Rio, here's an interesting chart that shows the various party strength on social media:

Sum of party followers on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:


From here.

The fact that a new party with only 1 member in parliament has a bigger following on social media than one of the big two mainstream parties speaks volumes about the PS' youth strategy. Anyway, I'm not expecting Montenegro to succeed. If anything, the timing makes this look extremely opportunistic.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio wins confidence vote: 75 votes in favour; 50 votes against.

Rui Rio saw his motion of confidence pass in the PSD national council with 75 votes in favour and 50 votes against, while 1 vote was null. In percentages, Rio won 59.5%, while his opposition got only 39.7%. The vote was by secret ballot, but it wasn't without controversy. The chair of the meeting, Paulo Mota Pinto, asked for a vote on the method of voting which infuriated many because party rules are clear and this kind of vote is unnecessary. Many were outraged by the vote, but it was approved 78 to 22. Things cooled down when Rio himself proposed a secret ballot, though.

Nonetheless, the media is reporting the end of the meeting as victory for Rui Rio, with the PSD leader leaving stronger than ever. His opposition, has also hailed the fact Rio accepted a secret ballot and say that now, the party is much more stronger and united. We'll see if the last part holds on.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Madeira regional parliament:

Vote share %:

36.9% PS (+3.0), 19/20 seats
34.7% PSD (+0.5), 18/19
  8.0% CDS (-2.6), 4
  4.8% JPP (-1.7), 2
  4.0% BE (nc), 2
  3.6% CDU (+0.2), 1/2
  0.9% PTP (-0.7), 0
  7.1% Others/Invalid (+1.3)

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 January 2019. Polled 1,510 voters. MoE of 2.51%.

1st time ever that the PS leads the PSD in a Madeira poll.

[Mike88]

Local by-election today in Talhadas parish, Sever do Vouga, Aveiro district:


Location of Talhadas parish in Sever do Vouga municipality.

Voters in Talhadas parish, Sever do Vouga, are voting, today, for a new parish assembly after negotiations to form a new parish government failed. In 2017, the PSD won with just two more votes than CDS. Only PSD and CDS have presented candidates for this by-election. 1,128 voters will, therefore, elect a new assembly.

[Mike88]

Talhadas local by-election - CDS gain from PSD:

54.8% CDS (+16.5), 5 seats (+1)
42.4% PSD (+3.9), 4 (nc)
  2.8% Invalid (-1.0)

78.6% Turnout (+4.2)

[Mike88]

New parties: André Ventura delivers almost 8,000 signatures to legalize his party, "Enough!"

André Ventura, former PSD member, has delivered to the Constitutional Court (TC) almost 8,000 signatures to legalize his new party called "Enough!". However, he says that there is the possibility that the Court could deny the legalization of his party due to Constitutional issues, but he's, nonetheless confident. Speaking to the press in front of the Court, Mr Ventura labeled his party as economically liberal, social conservative and nationalist. The main policy flags of the party are the chemical castration of pedophiles, life imprisonment and more border control.

[Mike88]

Political update:

With the PSD crisis resolved, we'll see how long the "peace" lasts, other political news have dominated the headlines. The two most dominant have been the racial tensions in the suburbs of Lisbon and the disclosure of a dossier about the shady bank loans of the State owned bank, Caixa Geral de Depósitos.

First, the racial tensions in the suburbs of Lisbon. Earlier this week, the police was called to the Jamaica neighborhood, in Seixal, a suburb of Lisbon in the south bank of the Tagus river, to control a family dispute that ended with confrontations between the residents of the neighborhood and the police. The residents of the neighborhood, an overwhelming majority of Afro-Portuguese, accused the police of using brutal response towards them, while the police says that rocks and other stuff were thrown at them by the residents. The next day, some of the residents of the neighborhood protested in downtown Lisbon, which ended, again, with a confrontation with the police that led to the arrest of 4 protesters. In the last few days, in many suburbs around Lisbon, many cars, some buses and many dustbins have been torched and destroyed and at least one police station was attacked.

Political reactions have also exacerbated the debate on these racial tensions. A BE adviser, Mamadou Ba, said that "sh***y police and the fascists are to blame for this", and his words were very bad received by the political class and the media. Mr Ba was , according to the media, harassed by PNR members in the streets of Lisbon, and, like some members of BE, even their leader Catarina Martins, is receiving insults and death threats on social media. PSD accuses BE of trying to make things even worse and demands that BE takes responsibility for their actions. Rui Rio, PSD leader, has said that he's on the police side but wants to wait and see what the final report, that was commissioned after the incident was reported, says. The PM, António Costa, made similar remarks saying we need to respect the police and wait for the report.  

But, today, things reached something never seen in Portugal. On the PM Q&A debate in Parliament, António Costa furiously attacked CDS leader, Assunção Cristas, after she asked him, after he already had been asked by the PSD, if he vehemently condemns the situation in Jamaica neighborhood. In his response, Costa asked Ms Cristas that "it must be because of the color of my skin that you ask me whether I condemn or not condemn". These words stunned the floor of Parliament, which led the Speaker to calm down the PM and MPs.

The other big story was the leaked report of the shady bank loans given by the State owned bank, Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD), to other banks, companies, etc, which created losses of almost 1.2 billion euros (1.4 billion dollars) to the State bank. These loans were made between 2000 to 2015 and spanned governments of both PS and PSD. Many of the bankers that approved these loans are still active while at least one, Armando Vara, was recently jailed for corruption charges in another process.

The report was leaked by a TV commentator, Joana Amaral Dias, on CMTV last weekend. The Bank of Portugal has reacted to this saying they are analyzing report but political reactions have already started. Parties in Parliament were denied any access to this report in the past and now want consequences. PSD, by the voice of Rui Rio, wants a full investigation to the management of CGD and adds that it's really serious if the government knew about the report and hid it. The government responded saying they also want an investigation to find out who's responsible for the shady and devastating loans. The PS also made similar response.

But, the war of words between PS and PSD/CDS has already started. PS accused the former PSD/CDS government of not doing nothing about the public bank and of trying to delete their record. The PSD and CDS responded saying that many of these deals were made during also a PS government in which Costa was part of, the 1st Sócrates government 2005-2009.

[Mike88]

Católica Lisbon School of Business & Economics Observatory on Portuguese Society study:

1. Trust in institutions: (in a scale between 0 - no trust - and 10 - absolute trust)

6.3 Presidency of the Republic
6.0 Schools
5.8 Police
5.7 Armed Forces
5.2 National Health Service
4.9 Big business/companies
4.7 Courts of law
4.6 Judicial system
4.4 Parliament
4.2 Banks
3.9 Church/Religion

2. Trust in government: (in a scale between 0 - no trust - and 10 - absolute trust)

4.7 In national affairs
5.0 In international affairs

3. Political ideology:

37.1% Center-left to leftwing
33.9% Centrist
29.0% Center-right to rightwing

4. Political perception of parties: (in a scale between 0 - leftwing - and 10 - rightwing)

7.1 PSD
6.8 CDS
5.7 Alliance
4.8 Average voter
4.3 PS
3.6 PAN
3.1 PEV
2.2 PCP
1.7 BE

5. Support/sympathy for political parties:

47.5% Some support/sympathy for a particular party
40.3% No support or sympathy for any party
12.2% Strong support/sympathy for a particular party

5.1. Party support by those with some or strong support/sympathy:

25.1% PSD
25.1% PS
17.3% BE
15.6% PAN
  6.9% CDS
10.0% Other parties

6. Turnout in the October 6th 2019 general elections:

69.8% Will vote for sure
22.2% Unsure
  8.0% Will not vote

7. Turnout in the May 25th 2019 EP elections:

55.0% Will vote for sure
34.4% Unsure
10.6% Will not vote

Study conducted between 29 November and 10 December 2018. Surveyed 968 voters.

[Former President tack50]

Wait, why is the Alliance perceived as more centrist?

And especially, why is CDS perceived as more centrist than PSD, I thought it was the opposite?