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Author Topic: Portugal's politics and elections (2019: Madeira Reg. Sep 22; General Oct 6)  (Read 122428 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #1050 on: January 10, 2019, 06:17:19 am »

How come Portugal is the only country or one of the few that social democracy seems to be in reasonably good shape, not collapsing?  Anything the Socialist party doing differently than other social democratic parties in Europe or is it due to unique circumstances in Portugal.

It's more of the unique circumstances of Portugal, although anything is possible nowadays. Portugal doesn't have immigration problems, for example, which could have led to an increase of extreme movements. In fact, the main worries of the population are the economy, corruption and the state of welfare state. Plus, the PS is pursuing policies very similar, some copypaste, to the PSD ones which deflate any arguments PSD or CDS have against them, and, with a growing economy, for now, the PS can bought the silence of PCP and BE in many policy areas, like cuts to the NHS. For now, this is the situation.

But, it can change. We don't know how the economy will perform in the next few months, the latest signs are very troubling with exports falling almost 9% and imports increasing 11% due to strikes in Setúbal harbour that prevented Autoeuropa of exporting cars, and Germany, according, to some reports, could be on the verge of a recession. The PS will win this year's election, but the question is how will Costa act in his second term. Will he be a decisive leader, persuing big reforms on the economy? or will he be indecisive and freeze in the face of difficulties? If the PS acts like they did in 1999/2000 and 2009/2010, and with a renovated PSD, probably, they could face serious electoral challenges ahead.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1051 on: January 10, 2019, 07:40:13 am »

It's on, it seems:

Montenegro will run and already has signatures for a National Council to remove Rio

Quote
Critics of Rui Rio already have enough signatures to convene an extraordinary National Council to bring down the leader and provoke early leadership elections. Luís Montenegro confirms in the next few days that he is a candidate for the leadership.

If this is really confirmed, a leadership election would, probably, take place in mid-March and a party congress in early, mid-April. We'll see.
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« Reply #1052 on: January 10, 2019, 03:19:05 pm »

PSD leadership crisis: Luís Montenegro will announce his candidacy tomorrow but he may not be alone:


Luís Montenegro is challenging Rio, but he may not be alone.

Luís Montenegro will announce, tomorrow, his candidacy for the PSD leadership and challenge Rio to call a snap election immediately. But it seems that another PSD MP, Miguel Morgado, is also considering running if a snap election is called. So, Rio could face a divided opposition, even though Morgado has 0% chances. Rio has made no reaction yet, and for now, it isn't schedule any reaction from the PSD leader.

Nonetheless, reactions from high profile PSD members show a divide about Montenegro's challenge: Some, like Pedro Duarte, former JSD leader and also a possible candidate for the leadership, says that anything is better than the current situation, or Ângelo Correia or João Montenegro, former Santana Lopes campaign chairman in the 2018 PSD elections, say this is a huge mistake that could damage "irreversibly" the PSD.

In order for a snap election to happen, Rio needs to lose the vote of no confidence in a national party council, and that's the big question right now. And i suspect Rio will use every single tools he has, as party chairman, to prevent any leadership election. We'll see.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2019, 03:25:38 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #1053 on: January 11, 2019, 04:02:30 am »

Aximage poll from January:

Vote share %:

37.7% PS (+0.7)
24.1% PSD (-0.6)
  9.4% CDS (+0.7)
  8.8% BE (-1.2)
  7.2% CDU (+0.9)
  3.5% PAN (+2.1)*
  1.2% Alliance (new)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (-4.6)
  2.8% Undecided (-0.7)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

15.9 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.9)
10.2 António Costa (+0.5)
  9.8 Catarina Martins (-0.8 )
  9.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.3)
  7.7 Assunção Cristas (-0.4)
  6.4 Rui Rio (nc)

Preferred PM:

55.4% António Costa (+0.1)
26.9% Rui Rio (-1.2)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2019. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%

*Compared with the 2015 election results.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2019, 02:57:41 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #1054 on: January 11, 2019, 03:21:43 pm »

Luís Montenegro officially announces his candidacy and dares Rio: "Don't be scared of a confrontation"

Luís Montenegro has officially announced he's in the race for the PSD leadership and wants Rio to call a snap election ASAP. During his speech, he wasn't shy as he described the current situation of the PSD: "the state of the party is bad, worrisome and irreversible with the current leadership. The PSD has resigned and is complacent towards António Costa. Rui Rio failed." He added that a year ago, no one could imagine that the party would be without causes, motivation and on the verge of a huge electoral defeat the could damage the party status as major nationwide political force. Montenegro also said he's ready to "galvanize the Portuguese people around a time of hope".

Montenegro had planned to appear almost alone in the room in the CCB, Belém Cultural Center, a landmark of Cavaco Silva's 10 year tenure as Prime Minister, as only media personnel was invited, but some PSD members and supporters showed up anyway. At the same time, it was revealed that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will meet with Rio, secretly it seems, in Porto city. What will Marcelo say to Rio is a mystery, as is Rio's reaction to all of this. Only his closest members of his team have reacted and accuse Montenegro of a "coup".
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« Reply #1055 on: January 11, 2019, 03:37:30 pm »

Eurosondagem poll from January:

Vote share %:

40.0% PS (-1.8 )
24.8% PSD (-2.0)
  7.6% BE (-0.1)
  7.1% CDS (+0.1)
  7.1% CDU (+0.1)
  4.0% Alliance (new)
  1.9% PAN (+0.1)
  7.5% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 2 and 9 January 2019. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.
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« Reply #1056 on: January 11, 2019, 06:16:33 pm »

More data from the January Eurosondagem poll:

Approval ratings:



Other questions polled:

Q1: Do you agree that the DA High Council - which oversees prosecutors - should have more members elected by the political power than magistrates, as Rui Rio argues?

42.9% Yes
40.4% No
16.7% Undecided

Q2: How would you a rate a possible PS absolute majority in the 2019 elections?

30.9% Indifferent
30.7% Bad for the country
26.8% Good for the country
11.6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 2 and 9 January 2019. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.08%.
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« Reply #1057 on: January 12, 2019, 02:53:33 am »

How come Portugal is the only country or one of the few that social democracy seems to be in reasonably good shape, not collapsing?  Anything the Socialist party doing differently than other social democratic parties in Europe or is it due to unique circumstances in Portugal.

It's more of the unique circumstances of Portugal, although anything is possible nowadays. Portugal doesn't have immigration problems, for example, which could have led to an increase of extreme movements. In fact, the main worries of the population are the economy, corruption and the state of welfare state. Plus, the PS is pursuing policies very similar, some copypaste, to the PSD ones which deflate any arguments PSD or CDS have against them, and, with a growing economy, for now, the PS can bought the silence of PCP and BE in many policy areas, like cuts to the NHS. For now, this is the situation.

But, it can change. We don't know how the economy will perform in the next few months, the latest signs are very troubling with exports falling almost 9% and imports increasing 11% due to strikes in Setúbal harbour that prevented Autoeuropa of exporting cars, and Germany, according, to some reports, could be on the verge of a recession. The PS will win this year's election, but the question is how will Costa act in his second term. Will he be a decisive leader, persuing big reforms on the economy? or will he be indecisive and freeze in the face of difficulties? If the PS acts like they did in 1999/2000 and 2009/2010, and with a renovated PSD, probably, they could face serious electoral challenges ahead.

Since it seems like the SP can rule with a grand coalition with BE and PCP, does that mean the PSD and their friends in the CDS are basically "underground" or subjected to "enduring minority" status, could this be an opportunity for both parties to shore up their base and support and rebuild the party with the hope of winning over the majority of the Portuguese maybe not in the next election but perhaps in the next generation? Also, if I may ask, how are you doing, how is the your new year going in Portugal? Did you visit any beautiful places in the country?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1058 on: January 12, 2019, 08:15:23 am »

How come Portugal is the only country or one of the few that social democracy seems to be in reasonably good shape, not collapsing?  Anything the Socialist party doing differently than other social democratic parties in Europe or is it due to unique circumstances in Portugal.

It's more of the unique circumstances of Portugal, although anything is possible nowadays. Portugal doesn't have immigration problems, for example, which could have led to an increase of extreme movements. In fact, the main worries of the population are the economy, corruption and the state of welfare state. Plus, the PS is pursuing policies very similar, some copypaste, to the PSD ones which deflate any arguments PSD or CDS have against them, and, with a growing economy, for now, the PS can bought the silence of PCP and BE in many policy areas, like cuts to the NHS. For now, this is the situation.

But, it can change. We don't know how the economy will perform in the next few months, the latest signs are very troubling with exports falling almost 9% and imports increasing 11% due to strikes in Setúbal harbour that prevented Autoeuropa of exporting cars, and Germany, according, to some reports, could be on the verge of a recession. The PS will win this year's election, but the question is how will Costa act in his second term. Will he be a decisive leader, persuing big reforms on the economy? or will he be indecisive and freeze in the face of difficulties? If the PS acts like they did in 1999/2000 and 2009/2010, and with a renovated PSD, probably, they could face serious electoral challenges ahead.

Since it seems like the SP can rule with a grand coalition with BE and PCP, does that mean the PSD and their friends in the CDS are basically "underground" or subjected to "enduring minority" status, could this be an opportunity for both parties to shore up their base and support and rebuild the party with the hope of winning over the majority of the Portuguese maybe not in the next election but perhaps in the next generation? Also, if I may ask, how are you doing, how is the your new year going in Portugal? Did you visit any beautiful places in the country?

That's the most likely scenario after the 2019 elections, and it isn't new. It happened in the PS after 1991, and in the PSD after 1999 and 2009. I wrote, a couple of months ago, that the 2021 local elections could be a real challenge for the PS as the have many mayors that are term limited in swing cities across the country and if the PSD solves it's internal situation until then, they can compete and perhaps win many of these cities back and force the PS to be in a similar situation as it was in 2001. But, of course, all of this depends on the state of the PSD. The situation in the party isn't new, we have seen it before, but so close to national election, it's a first. Montenegro's decision is dividing many critics of Rio as they say Montenegro has made a horrible decision and this may benefit Rio, but we will only know in the next few days.

Things have been OK. A lot of sunshine but really, really low temperatures just above 0ºC. Have had a lot of work, thankfully, so i haven't travel a lot lately.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 07:42:01 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #1059 on: January 12, 2019, 02:30:45 pm »

Rui Rio says NO to Montenegro, but calls for a vote of confidence in a national party council meeting:

Rui Rio has refused Luís Montenegero challenge of calling a snap leadership election and insted will call for a vote of confidence in national party council meeting. In a very harsh speech towards Montenegro and his internal opposition, Rio accuses Montenegro of only having "a personal agenda" and if he wanted to run, he had an opportunity a year ago and blew it. He added that Montenegro is irresponsible and that his actions prove he's not up for the job. He also accuses his internal opposition of giving more and more presents to the PS and António Costa with their constants attacks on him.

A national party council meeting, the most important council, between congresses, in the PSD, will meet, probably, in the next few days and we'll see where the needle drops.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1060 on: January 13, 2019, 08:18:15 am »

In other news: Parliament approves the legalization of working immigrants without documents:

Parliament approved a PCP bill that will solve the situation of many immigrants that work and live in Portugal but that have no documents, and therefore, are in a illegal situation. Immigrants who work, or live, in Portugal since July 2015 without any authorization will be legalized if they have work documents that proves they can live properly in Portugal. The bill passed with the votes of PCP, PEV, BE and PAN, but it was the abstention of PSD and PS that ultimately helped the bill pass. CDS was the only to vote against.
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« Reply #1061 on: January 14, 2019, 04:00:20 pm »

PSD calls a snap national party council for Thursday, but the hour is creating some controversy:


A previous PSD council meeting held in April 2018.

It will be decided this week. The PSD has called a snap national party council meeting for this Thursday to begin at 5pm. In the agenda is the motion of confidence asked by Rui Rio, PSD leader, after Luís Montenegro challenged Rio for leadership elections. 135 council members will decide the future of Rui Rio. But, the calling of the meeting is creating some controversy. The hour, 5pm, is, for some PSD members, MPs and councillors too early and some accuse Rio of trying to make sure that only his supports come to the meeting. The meeting will be held in Porto, which, added with the time, could make voting really hard for some councillors. Some PSD MPs are pleading the PSD caucus leader, Fernando Negrão, to force Rio to, at least, change the hour to around 9pm on Thursday.

We'll see how the PSD council meeting ends, if it's held this week, and what outcome it will give to Rio and Montenegro.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 07:25:07 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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« Reply #1062 on: January 14, 2019, 07:08:45 pm »

Observador newspaper analysis on the PSD national council vote:

In favour of Rui Rio: 50
Against Rui Rio: 28
Undecided: 57
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 07:25:00 pm by Mike88 »Logged
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