Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

When Rui Rio appeared to really be under siege from elements within his own party, I thought CDS-PP had a real chance to revitalize and appeal to disaffected right-leaners in PSD. Rio managed to bring his party back together though.

Indeed, the PSD campaign surprised many and Rio was able to shut down many critical voices of his leadership. And even now, it seems that Rio's opposition within the PSD is very silenced. It's a bit odd for the PSD. Rio's tough performance against Costa in the Government Program debate and the media good response to it, may confuse his opposition. However, my hunch is that the PSD leadership race is still too close to call.

About a possible coalition of center-right/right-wing parties against the PS, like Republican Left talked about, Jornal Económico made a simulation using the election results and a rightwing coalition would beat the PS, but if CH wasn't part of the coalition, the PS would win:

Right-wing coalition (RC): (PSD, CDS, CH, IL and Alliance)

35.3% RC, 100 seats
36.3% PS, 97
  9.5% BE, 18
  6.3% CDU, 10
  3.3% PAN, 4
  1.1% Livre, 1
  8.2% Others/Invalid, 0

Right-wing coalition (RC) without CH: (PSD, CDS, IL and Alliance)

36.3% PS, 101 seats
34.0% RC, 95
  9.5% BE, 18
  6.3% CDU, 10
  3.3% PAN, 4
  1.3% CH, 1
  1.1% Livre, 1
  8.2% Others/Invalid, 0

* In this simulation, I added the overseas votes that when Jornal Económico made the simulation weren't known yet. In both cases, it would be PSD 3, PS 1.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

how are the small parties handling their arrival onto the political scene? Will any of them flameout like that Earth Party a few years back?

[crals]

how are the small parties handling their arrival onto the political scene? Will any of them flameout like that Earth Party a few years back?

I don't think the Earth Party is really comparable, as they were only a vehicle for a certain candidate rather than getting an actual party breakthrough. These new parties are filling actual voids in Portuguese political spectrum and have a better chance of long term survival.

Chega and IL have been doing well so far, pointing their guns straight at the government as expected. Livre has to deal with the massive problem of their MP's severe stuttering overshadowing their message.

[Mike88]

how are the small parties handling their arrival onto the political scene? Will any of them flameout like that Earth Party a few years back?

I don't think the Earth Party is really comparable, as they were only a vehicle for a certain candidate rather than getting an actual party breakthrough. These new parties are filling actual voids in Portuguese political spectrum and have a better chance of long term survival.

Chega and IL have been doing well so far, pointing their guns straight at the government as expected. Livre has to deal with the massive problem of their MP's severe stuttering overshadowing their message.

Like Crals said, MPT and Marinho Pinto were a one time thing. His current party, PDR, only got 0.2% in the election.

The government's program debate was overshadowed by the tense clash between Rio and Costa, as Rio was a newcomer to Parliament and there was a lot of curiosity about how would Rio be as leader of the opposition in the floor of parliament. Rio was very harsh towards Costa, accusing him of leading the biggest and most expensive government in Portuguese history and adding the bad NHS situation and the weird case about lithium exploration in Portugal. Costa was quite upset with Rio's tone and accused Rio of training to be a TV pundit and of making "pub judgments" in Parliament. The PSD harsh stand against Costa and the PS, emptied a lot of space for Chega and IL, which had, in my view, weak performances. And IL is right now in a leadership change, as its leader, Carlos Guimarães Pinto has resigned explaining his mission is complete. It's now expected that the sole IL MP will become leader of the party. Livre, like what Crals said, has the problem of Joacine Katar-Moreira stuttering. Pundits and the media are acknowledging the huge courage she has, but at the same time say it's of a huge violence for her the current position she holds.

[bigic]

Also there is PAN, which grew from just one seat in 2015 to a MEP and a few more MP seats in 2019.

[Mike88]

Also there is PAN, which grew from just one seat in 2015 to a MEP and a few more MP seats in 2019.

Yes, PAN can be included in the same category as CH, IL and Livre as parties that filed some kind of void in the political system.

The day is being dominated by the investigation into André Ventura's doctoral thesis as he defended, according to Diário de Notícias, the complete opposite than what he defends currently:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1190426931646222336

The populist André and the "politically correct" Ventura: The DN read the Chega leader's doctoral thesis and discovered an academic Ventura concerned with the rights of sex offenders, the expansion of police power and the discrimination of minorities. The "politically correct", as Mr André calls it today. Who is the real one?

The doctoral thesis, concluded in 2013 in Cork University, Ireland, has as theme the anti-terrorism policies after 9-11. In the paper, Ventura defends that these post 9-11 policies are highly intrusive to citizens freedoms, that are only founded by fear and that only create divisions and suspicions regarding certain races and comunities. He also raises concern with the increasing power of police forces, that create arrests without concrete proofs.

Asked by the newspaper if his thesis exposes a huge contradition, he said no because his thesis isn't an opinion article, it is a science article and he always distinguished his personal opinions with scientifical data.

[Mike88]

Controversy between Livre MP Joacine Katar-Moreira and leftwing pundit Daniel Oliveira:

Joacine Katar-Moreira, Livre MP, continues in the headlines. This time it was her response to leftwing pundit, and former Livre supporter, Daniel Oliveira. Oliveira criticized Ms Moreira for persuing "identity politics" and of focusing too much on her and deflection attentions from real policies. Ms Moreira was quite upset by Daniel Oliveira's opinion and accused him of aligning with the right-wing criticisms towards her and Livre:

https://twitter.com/KatarMoreira/status/1190264603701321728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Daniel, your stance, though more polite and masked in common sense, has not been much different from that of many right-wing associates and his extreme pursuit of constant discrediting of LIVRE and my choice as the head list. I stopped reading what you write about LIVRE.

Daniel Oliveira also responded to Ms Joacine comment:
https://twitter.com/danielolivalx/status/1190269386491408385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

So you are really comparing me to the far right. Maybe blurring a little of yourself helps you gain perspective, even when you disagree with the criticism. Politics is not divided between those who stand for themselves and against themselves. Much less the border with the right and the far right.

The back and forward continued on Twitter. Interesting that on the same day, there is bad press for two new parties, LIVRE and Chega.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership race:

Luís Montenegro, Rio's main challenger, launch his campaign website under the slogan "The force that comes from within". The website has also the names of Montenegro's close supporters like former finance minister Maria Luís Albuquerque, and former JSD leader Pedro Duarte. During this week, the PSD will meet in a party national council to decide the date of the leadership elections, which most likely will be held during January 2020.

The number of PSD members able to vote this time could drop. Until now, around 20,000 party members are registered to vote are paying their membership fees, but this time massive payments are forbidden and each party members has to update their data and pay their fee. Some of Rio's critics accuse the party leadership of huge bureaucracy, but the party leadership denies it saying that this time everything will be transparent. The PSD has, according to their data, around 130,000 active members.

[Mike88]

First polling after the election:

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper and CMTV:

Vote share %: (compared with the election results)

35.6% PS (-0.7)
24.8% PSD (-3.0)
10.7% BE (+1.2)
  6.9% CDU (+0.6)
  5.3% PAN (+2.0)
  4.4% CDS (+0.2)
  2.7% Livre (+1.6)
  2.5% CHEGA (+1.2)
  0.8% IL (-0.5)
  6.3% Others/Invalid (-2.6)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.2 António Costa (-0.1)
3.2 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.9 André Silva (+0.1)
2.9 Rui Rio (+0.3)
2.4 Assunção Cristas (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 22 and 28 October 2019. Polled 604 votes. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

More data from the Intercampus poll:

Q: How do you foresee the management of Costa's 2nd Cabinet, compared with his first one?

51.1% The same
23.8% Worse
15.4% Better
  9.7% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 and 28 October 2019. Polled 604 votes. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership race: Candidates start going against each other.

The PSD leadership elections are expected to be held on 11 January 2020, at least that's the date proposed by Rui Rio. At the same time, Rio was elected party caucus leader with almost 90% of the votes. But, Luís Montenegro is going hard against Rio. Responding to Rio's claim that his strength comes from outside the party, Montenegro went to social media to say this:

https://twitter.com/montenegro_psd/status/1192432971694911489

The strength that the Portuguese gave to Rui Rio was 21 and 27%. One explanation of this misfortune is not realizing that only a strong PSD within is reliable out there. Failure to value the militant's strength leads to mediocre results. I thank Rui Rio make this difference between us so clear

And, the other candidate in the race, Miguel Pinto Luz, also responded by attacking both Rio and Montenegro with a Star Wars reference:

https://twitter.com/miguelluz/status/1192502363011141632

I imagine Antonio Costa is enjoying watching the StarWars debate that has settled on #PSD. More than rambling about the origin of our strength, I am determined to unite and lead a Party that gives more strength to the Portuguese. #miguelpintoluz #portugal #StarWars

Another piece of controversy is still the number of members registered to vote. This time, mass payments of fees are forbidden and the PSD current leadership is in alert for possible frauds in the payments. But, many members of the party, the majority opposing Rio, accuse the party of huge bureaucracy and confusion that is making many members give up in registering to vote. The final registration numbers will be known in the 3rd week of December.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll on the popularity of the PSD candidates against Rio:

Luís Montenegro:

45.0% Neither positive or negative
25.9% Negative
22.4% Positive
  6.7% Undecided

Miguel Pinto Luz:

62.8% Neither positive or negative
17.1% Positive
10.9% Negative
  9.3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 and 28 October 2019. Polled 604 votes. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Controversy as PS+CDU+BE bar smaller parties of speaking during PM Q&As against the wishes of the Speaker, PSD, CDS and PAN:

The current parliament rules only allow parties with just one MP to speak for just one minute in bills debates and can only propose political declarations 3 times in one year. Because this time 3 parties, Chega, IL and Livre, have just one MP, the speaker Ferro Rodrigues (PS), PSD, CDS and PAN proposed to give more time to smaller parties to speak in debates and particularly in PM Q&As. But, the proposal was rejected by PS, CDU and BE, as they argue that the rules are clear. Speaker Ferro Rodrigues was quite upset by the position of the leftwing parties, particularly PS, and will call for a leader's meeting to change the rules.

Smaller parties are outraged by the situation, because 4 years ago, PAN was given more time to speak in debates and PM Q&As. CDU says that what happened 4 years wasn't a precedent and that the scenario is different today. The 3 smaller parties accuse the left of silencing Parliament and will ask for audiences with the Speaker and the President of the Republic.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership elections called for 11 and 18 January 2020:

The PSD has approved the calender for the leadership elections: the first round will be on 11 January 2020, and if no one achieves 50%+1 of the votes, a second round will be held on 18 January. The party national congress is scheduled for February, between 5 and 7 of that month.

[Mike88]

Energy secretary, João Galamba, received with protests in Boticas, Vila Real, due to the lithium debacle:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1193945406285197313

Footage - João Galamba flees from hostile demonstration in Boticas.

There were some tense moments, this afternoon, in Boticas city, Vila Real, where the Energy Secretary, João Galamba, was visiting a site and people protested against his presence their and to the controversial deal to explore lithium in the surrounding of Boticas and Montalegre. The lithium exploration is involved in very high suspicions, with accusations of corruption in PS ranks.

And also, the controversy surrounding the smaller parties continues. After the smaller parties accused the left parties, PS, BE and CDU, of shutting them up in Parliament and of hurting democracy, not to mention the backlash from the media and pundits, PS and BE are available for ""creative" solutions, but only if they anticipate what the final result will be." PSD and CDS accuse PS, BE and CDU of fear and that a debate should be held without any "complexes or fears" from the smaller parties. The Speaker is quite upset by the situation, and some PS MPs say this was a huge mistake that could strengthen smaller parties, especially Chega. A meeting will be held by all parties, tomorrow, to try to solve the situation.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership elections: Party unveils website that tracks membership by the second.

The PSD has unveils a website that tracks each member that has paid their fee and are registered to vote in the January elections. Until now, 16,831 members have paid their membership fees. The party also shows the number of active members of the party, members who paid a fee in the last two years. According to party data, the PSD has 106,329 active members with Porto, Lisbon Metro Area, Braga, Azores and Madeira as the districts where the number of PSD members is above 10,000. Porto district has the highest number of members, while Beja and Lisbon Outside Metro Area have the lowest number.

All data here: PSD by the second

[Mike88]

First PMs Q&A of the new Parliament marked by the new minimum wage and school reforms:

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1194711633232322560

End of flunks led to discord in biweekly debate

After a last minute U-turn, PS wend along with PSD, CDS and the Speaker and gave time for the smaller parties to have a say in PMs Q&A. The debate, the 1st of this Parliament, was heavily marked by the new minimum wage approved the government for 2020, 635 euros (700 dollars), and the governments policies towards the education system to end student flunks until the 9th grade. PSD and PS entered in a bitter exchange of wards about the end of flunks, with Rui Rio, PSD leader, accusing Costa of promoting facilitism and irresponsibility in the education system. Costa responded saying the policy is to persue school success, not facilitism. The new minimum wage saw also a big split between PS and PSD, with Rio arguing that Costa is increasing the minimum wage at rate two time higher than inflation and asked if Costa was willing to level the national minimum wage with the public employees minimum wage, a bit higher than the national one. Costa asked, quite angrily, if the PSD leader was proposing a freeze in public employees wages with that proposed policy.

BE and CDU attacked the government, not for the end of student flunks, but the lack of staff in schools across the country. Lately, many schools have been on strike fighting against the lack of staff to look after children and students. But the two most "out of the box" performances were from Livre and Chega. André Ventura, Chega, was able to led Costa to uncomfortable territories when he asked if the PM still wanted teachers to emigrate to France. Costa, quite upset, said he might be confusing him with Passos Coelho, but fact-chekers have confirmed that Costa said, in 2016, that teachers with no job should teach elsewhere. Ventura also asked Costa if he was going to raise any indirect taxes, and Costa was quite vague. The other quite weird moment was Joacine Katar-Moreira', Livre MP, remark that you cannot talk about the minimum wage without talking about love. Costa responded that the minimum wage has nothing to do with love, but justice.

Pundits were surprised that the smaller parties didn't confront the big parties with the controversial vote against giving time from the PS, BE and CDU, and argue that the debate was quite boring. Pundits also say that Rio is trying to show the PSD members he's to right of Costa in order to beat Montenegro.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Q1: How long will the current government last?

66.7% Four years
31.0% Will fall with a no confidence motion
  2.3% Will fall within a year

Q2: How to you rate the size of António Costa' new government?

71.8% Too big and a wrong decision
22.2% About right and a good decision
  6.0% Undecided

Q3: Popularity of political leaders: (in a scale between 0 and 20 and without CDS)

11.4 António Costa
10.2 Catarina Martins
  9.9 Rui Rio
  9.7 Jerónimo de Sousa
  8.9 André Ventura (CHEGA)
  8.1 Cotrim de Figueiredo (IL)
  7.9 André Silva
  6.3 Joacine Katar-Moreira (Livre)

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 November 2019. Polled 639 voters.

[Mike88]

André Ventura (CHEGA) met with Rui Rio (PSD) to talk about possible agreements in economic/fiscal policies:

André Ventura, CHEGA MP, had a meeting with PSD leader Rui Rio to talk about the 2020 budget and possible agreements between CHEGA and PSD on fiscal/economic issues. Ventura, in a statement to the press, said that Rio made clear the different ideological position of both CHEGA and PSD, but that he left the meeting with the view that the PSD leader is open to discuss and propose common policies in economic matters.

[bigic]

André Ventura (CHEGA) met with Rui Rio (PSD) to talk about possible agreements in economic/fiscal policies:

André Ventura, CHEGA MP, had a meeting with PSD leader Rui Rio to talk about the 2020 budget and possible agreements between CHEGA and PSD on fiscal/economic issues. Ventura, in a statement to the press, said that Rio made clear the different ideological position of both CHEGA and PSD, but that he left the meeting with the view that the PSD leader is open to discuss and propose common policies in economic matters.

Is this a move to appease the right-wing faction of PSD before the internal elections?

[Mike88]

André Ventura (CHEGA) met with Rui Rio (PSD) to talk about possible agreements in economic/fiscal policies:

André Ventura, CHEGA MP, had a meeting with PSD leader Rui Rio to talk about the 2020 budget and possible agreements between CHEGA and PSD on fiscal/economic issues. Ventura, in a statement to the press, said that Rio made clear the different ideological position of both CHEGA and PSD, but that he left the meeting with the view that the PSD leader is open to discuss and propose common policies in economic matters.

Is this a move to appease the right-wing faction of PSD before the internal elections?

It can be a move to do that, but Ventura isn't very popular within the PSD and CHEGA didn't damage the PSD in terms of electorate in the October election, so the move wouldn't move much, if not anything. Now, PSD, or at least Rio, could be testing what kind of relation PSD and CHEGA could have in the future, as the CDS colapse could force the PSD to find possible agreements in the emerging parties on the right, IL and CHEGA.

A PSD spokesperson said that the meeting was asked by Ventura and that Rio accepted, and added that Rio is open to talk with every party in Parliament. It curious to see the different paths PSD and PS are persuing towards the new minor parties.

[Mike88]

Police protest against the government marked by André Ventura's speech to police officers:

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1197567947126050816

Video - Protesters sing the national anthem with their backs against the Assembly of the Republic.

The police rally against the government, demanding more wage increases and better working conditions, was marked by tensions between the different unions in the police force. One of the biggest unions in the police is the "Zero Movement" which seems to have connections to the far-right and Chega party. Many leftwing unions were also in the protest rally, so when protesters demand, and hailed, André Ventura, many of these unions where deeply uncomfortable. After the rally, they accused Ventura of using police officers and the protest for political gains. Another curious moment was when protesters turned their back against the Parliament building and started singing the national anthem.

A huge anti-riot police operation was put into place in front of Parliament, which anti-riot police officers called in big numbers and concrete barriers were also installed.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Vote share %: (compared with the general election results)

37.4% PS (+1.1)
27.1% PSD (-0.7)
10.4% BE (+0.9)
  6.2% CDU (-0.1)
  4.0% CDS (-0.2)
  3.2% PAN (-0.1)
  3.0% CHEGA (+1.7)
  1.3% IL (nc)
  0.9% Livre (-0.2)
  6.5% Others/Invalid (-2.2)

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 November 2019. Polled 639 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

Negative coalition against the government in the making?: PSD, PCP and BE threaten to force the government to cut VAT on electricity in the 2020 budget.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1198199695706906626

"Negative coalition" could lower VAT on electricity

PSD, PCP and BE defended, during the election campaign, VAT cuts in electricity bills for consumers, from 23% to 6%. Now, it seems they want to force the government in just that. According to the media, BE is telling the PS that this is an off the table issue and that they will not back down. PSD has also defended to cut VAT on electricity during the campaign, and the party is planning to propose policies in that way during the 2020 budget discussion. The government is hitting back saying there's no money for it, adding that the cost would be around 700 million euros and that it's either this, or the end of wage and career freeze for public employees, around 500 million euros.

[crals]

JKM abstained on a pro-Palestinian vote, against Livre's leadership/manifesto and woke Twitter, her only voters, who are "cancelling" her. That was fast.