Portugal's politics and elections

[crals]

Hi, long time lurker here. I'm glad there's finally a thread for my country, thank you Mike88. As an Azorean I'd like to share my feelings about today's election.

PS have been in power for too long. They have cast a clientelistic net over the archipelago that ensures that this will remain the case, at least for now. People will vote for PS because they've done so all their lives or because they/their relatives are employed by the regional government or receive benefits from it. There's no appetite for change, older people still remember the period of PSD's dominance, which they say was no better, and many younger people such as myself live outside the islands to study or work, and can't be hassled by the bureaucracy of early voting. Apathy and the certainty of the result will lead to low turnout as usual. The relative popularity of the national PS government will further help PS (although the budget presentation yesterday may have an effect but that's unlikely), as well as the fact that PSD's candidate isn't well known (being a MEP) and that the policies proposed by PSD and CDS are virtually indistinguishable from those of PS. 4 years ago PSD's candidate was the popular Mayor of Ponta Delgada Berta Cabral, but the unpopularity of the national PSD/CDS government killed her chances. This whole situation of no alternance of power is frustrating for me, hence this rant, but the silver lining is that the government in the end isn't that bad and PSD might be worse.

I'm not voting because I am in the mainland and I missed the deadline for early voting, but if I did I'd probably vote for PAN because I appreciate their trolling of the bullfighters.

[crals]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

PPM is the only party whose regional leader/top candidate is from Corvo, and they focus much of their campaigning there to get him elected.

[crals]

Hi there crals!

Welcome to the forum and thank you for your thoughts on today's Azores election.

I live in mainland Portugal and i do not know a lot about Azores and frankly the election was just unknown to people here in mainland, it just passed by and no one noticed. But, personally, i think that because Azores is one of Portugal's poorest regions, with a high poverty rate, the biggest in the country i think, and a high dependency in government subsdies, are some of the reasons the PS is so strong here. In the long run, Azores will probally be the PS "Madeira".

Thank you!

I know, we are not as noisy as the Madeirans:P

Yes, despite being the more conservative part of the country the Azores lean very much to the left. PSD have tried to counter this by moving to the left as well, but I guess when the national party says one thing and the regional party says another people get suspicious.

[crals]

Fairly minor, but what's up with that PPM seat on Corvo?

PPM is the only party whose regional leader/top candidate is from Corvo, and they focus much of their campaigning there to get him elected.

My grandpa who has a friend from Corvo says it's because a good number of the descendants of the last king live there.

But the last king left no descendants. It's possible that there are descendants of royalty there, I've never heard of it but I've never been to Corvo and I admit I don't know that much about it. But PPM has only held that seat for the same candidate, Paulo Estêvão.

[crals]

I wonder what the effect geopolitical wrangling between China and the US in the Azores has on the ground?

Well, in his visit to China, António Costa said that China was interested in investing in Lajes. The PS Azores said it could be a good idea to have a US-China base (not sure if that's even possible) while the PSD said the base should stay with the Americans.
Judging by the election results in Lajes parish, the PSD increased it's share by 10% while the PS maintained their share. Not sure if this means that the people of Lajes want US or China investment, but the trend says that maybe they are against China involvement.

I'm from Terceira and the Lajes issue affects the whole island due to the great impact it has on employment and commerce. People are rather scared of China and everyone would much rather keep the airbase in the USA's hands, but I believe most would rather have China there than no one.

[crals]

In the end this election had something nice for everyone. PS retained their absolute majority, PSD did not do as poorly as expected, the smaller parties in the regional assembly all gained votes and even PAN I would say got a decent result even in my very pro-bullfighting island. I'm satisfied, even if the turnout was pitiful.

[crals]

On one hand the government has been a positive surprise in several aspects, but on another one their ideologically motivated but fiscally dodgy policies are worrisome.

Yet while Passos leads the PSD there's no real alternative, his strategy of doing nothing but predicting doom and waiting for the "inevitable" collapse of the left-wing alliance and for power to fall back on his lap has been an epic fail. Not many more people apart from the ones who already voted for PàF in 2015 are willing to give him another chance and I think that drags CDS down as well to some extent given their informal alliance with PSD. But I'm not sure if Rio challenging him would be very smart given that PSD is likely to lose the next election anyway (although of course everything can change meanwhile).

I hope PSD will decide to back Moreira and Cristas in the local elections. The 3 party "government" in Porto (where I live atm) is quite funny but also pretty good, and I think it's time for a power change in Lisbon.

[crals]

On one hand the government has been a positive surprise in several aspects, but on another one their ideologically motivated but fiscally dodgy policies are worrisome.

Yet while Passos leads the PSD there's no real alternative, his strategy of doing nothing but predicting doom and waiting for the "inevitable" collapse of the left-wing alliance and for power to fall back on his lap has been an epic fail. Not many more people apart from the ones who already voted for PàF in 2015 are willing to give him another chance and I think that drags CDS down as well to some extent given their informal alliance with PSD. But I'm not sure if Rio challenging him would be very smart given that PSD is likely to lose the next election anyway (although of course everything can change meanwhile).

I hope PSD will decide to back Moreira and Cristas in the local elections. The 3 party "government" in Porto (where I live atm) is quite funny but also pretty good, and I think it's time for a power change in Lisbon.

Hey there Crals! nice to see you again!
I don't know if the PSD should support Moreira. I also live in the Porto area and he has been doing a great job and deserves reelection but i'm crossed about the idea of the PSD supporting him. The party is very divided at the moment. I think ultimately the party will present someone, but the vast majority of the PSD electorate in Porto will vote for Moreira. Let's see what happens.

Thank you, nice to see you too!

If they have their own candidate they will risk another humiliating result in Porto. We'll see.

[crals]

According to the same poll, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is the most popular Portuguese politician ever since there's polling, with an impressive 97% giving him a positive grade from 0 to 20 and an average grade of 16,3.

I would post the image here but I'm not allowed to post links yet. Costa is the most popular party leader followed by Catarina (BE) and Jerónimo (PCP), Passos Coelho is the only one with a clearly negative grade.

[crals]

I suppose most of his scores were around 10 but he also got a lot of 0s and 1s which pushed the grade down

[crals]

Yes, the current arrangement makes voting for PS, BE and CDU almost the same thing, but with PS coming across as the moderate more responsible choice.

[crals]

Erm, why were the Communists in a coalition with PSD?

CDU-PSD coalitions are quite common in municipalities where CDU and PS are each other's main rival

[crals]

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

[crals]

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

Good to see you back, Crals. Would like to hear your thoughts on how is Azores politics right now. The PSD-Azores just elected a new leader. How do you rate him? Do you think he has any chances against Vasco Cordeiro in 2020?

Thank you! And thank you for the updates too, this thread is a better news source than our national newspapers.

Sorry for not replying sooner, I meant to but forgot about it until now. About Alexandre Gaudêncio, I'm afraid I (and most people in my island) don't really know him. Which is bad for PSD, as Cordeiro has both name recognition and the strong position of the national PS helping him. I don't know how people in São Miguel feel about him however, but he seems to be pretty popular in his municipality judging on his results on local elections (as you probably know he's the mayor of Ribeira Grande and won it from PS in 2013). Who knows what can change until 2020, but so far I see no reason why PS wouldn't win again to be honest.

[crals]

Do Portuguese people actually like bullfighting, or is it the domain of old people like in Spain?

Well, bullfighting is still relatively popular in Portugal. Although there isn't, i believe, numbers to prove it, common sense would say that younger people, particularly in urban/suburban areas, would be quite disinterested with bullfighting compared with older of middle age people. In rural areas, particularly in Alentejo, things may be different, but, this is just my understanding.

Why do young people not like bullfighting?

There isn't much to like, is there? Apart from growing awareness of animal rights, there are new forms of entertainment for young people nowadays, so traditions can't really compete.

I'm from a bullfighting area where the norm still is that young people mostly support bullfighting, but the generational divide is already very visible.

[crals]

So I guess it's a north vs south cultural thing and not really connected to politics?

For all what's worth at least here across the border there's certainly not such a pattern. If anything, the dynamic would be center (or culturally "only Spanish") vs periphery.


Also interestingly, bullfighting seems reasonably popular in the Azores and Madeira while here the Canary Islands were the first region to ban bullfighting! (and technically, the only ban still standing as the Catalonia ban was overturned)

I'd have thought the reasons that made bullfighting unpopular in the Canary Islands (mainly the lack of pastures to grow bulls and the fact that they have to be brought from the mainland) would also apply to Azores and Madeira at least

It's only the Azores, not Madeira. The Azores have a very different climate from the Canary Islands (quite humid), there are more cows/bulls in the Azores than people and the dairy industry is a big slice of the local economy.

[crals]

Bullfighting is very popular in Azores, especially the "bulls on ropes". Azores, unlike Madeira, has a lot of pastures that grow cows and, probably bulls. Azores has a huge industry of pastures, with the myth, don't know if it's true or not, that in Azores for each inhabitant there's 3 cows. That's my opinion on the Azores, but crals could have a more detail explanation.

Late reply but: it's a bit of an exaggeration from mainland Portuguese that there are that many cows in the Azores It's estimated that there are only slightly more cows than people. Otherwise this is all correct.

[crals]

I guess there just isn't much reason to trust PSD over PS at this point (and some not to do so, with the infighting and occasional bipolarity). If you want the public finances in order PS is succeeding at that and if you think there's still too much austerity you won't be voting for the right anyway. They're also stuck between a rock and a hard place on what opposition strategy to pursue, courting PS is costing them votes to CDS but a blind opposition to the government like Passos Coelho attempted was perceived as irresponsible and was costing them even more. In the end they will bounce back once the current government becomes unpopular anyway.

Since a PS-PSD coalition is pretty much impossible, I assume a better way of looking at it might be through "blocks" (ie PS-BE-CDU vs PSD-CDS). In that case the current government would be headed for a landslide (something like 54-37 by the looks of it).

They should still fall short of any supermajority thresholds Portugal has for changing the constitution unilaterally (I assume it's either 3/5 or 2/3, plus probably a referendum)

Even if the left had a 2/3 majority I don't think PS would dare to change the Constitution without PSD. The optics would be very bad.

[crals]

A question for crals about the PSD-Azores:

There was a little controversy about the PSD lists because of the inclusion, or not, of Mota Amaral, the 1st president of the Azores government in democracy (1976-1995), in the party lists for the EP elections. Because last time, in 2014, the PSD-Azores was benefited with a 3rd place slot in the lists, this time was Madeira's turn to be benefited. According to the media, the PSD-Azores was forcing Rui Rio to accept Mota Amaral's name in a top spot or there wouldn't be no candidate and the regional party would consider not campaigning at all for the EP elections.

Because you, crals, are more into Azorean politics, how do you make of this tactic?

I suppose it will make no difference in the end because the Azores are a small part of the country. Mota Amaral still has some diehard supporters but PS would probably easily win the region anyway.
It does feel like the PSD has given up on winning back the Azores any time soon. CDS stole some of their support in the last regional election and could get even more.

[crals]

Costa has met with the President and will make an announcement to the country in 40 minutes...

EDIT: No resignation, just a threat of resignation if the bill does go through the final vote

[crals]

Multidados poll for TVI/TVI24:

Vote share %:

35.5% PS
20.3% PSD
14.7% BE
  7.9% PAN
  5.6% CDU
  3.3% CDS
  5.0% Others
  7.7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 18 and 28 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.5%.

It's hard to believe this poll. Such a result would be a massive earthquake.

[crals]

I think the support from BE/CDU may have perversely enabled PS to pursue a more right-wing course than they otherwise would have, by nullifying left-wing opposition both in parliament and the streets, in exchange for policies that often ended up hurting the most disadvantaged, such as the 35h for public workers resulting in a further decline of the already fragile public services, namely healthcare. It has been perplexing and even infuriating how some foreign media portray this government as some sort of progressive heroes.

From a left-wing point of view it might be best if at least PCP return to opposition in the next term.

[crals]

Their path hasn't changed though, it has just taken a while for dissatisfaction to brew up. From the beginning their priority has been keeping public finances in order and keeping things cool with the EU, ie. austerity. Which is more than fine by me, the false narrative of "turning the page on of austerity" is what's annoying.

And yes, they've passed some genuinely left-wing policies and have some genuinely left-wing people, but on the whole, as someone who lives in the country, their government feels like a scam, giving with one hand and taking with the other. Alas, still probably more competent than the mess Rui Rio is turning out to be.

[crals]

Incredibly bad luck for BE. PS syphoned nearly all the anti-PSD vote.

Despite their awful result CDS are ironically at their most powerful in Madeira ever atm.

[crals]

Considering the polling at one point predicted a left-wing majority this really isn't a bad result for PSD imo.