Portugal's politics and elections

[Former President tack50]

PSD leadership election.

Map of the support from the PSD's 18 district party structures by candidate:



Rio has the support from the big bastions of the PSD: Aveiro, Bragança, Viseu, Vila Real and Leiria; Santana Lopes has the support of the biggest districts in terms of voters: Porto and Lisbon and dominates in the South. Braga, a district that's becoming more and more pró-PSD, and Setúbal didn't support any candidate.

What's the electoral system for PSD leadership elections? FPTP or 2 rounds? (Though with only 2 candidates it doesn't really matter)

Also, who is allowed to vote? All Portuguese people over 18? (like France and the USA) Only registered party members who pay membership dues? (like 3/4 parties here) Only those who attend the "PSD national congess"? (like PP here or PSOE up until 2015)

[Former President tack50]

Actually, unless CDS is expected to drop out, running alone is usually a better choice in my opinion for 2 reasons:

1: In politics 2+2 =/= 4. In other words if PSD is at 30 and CDS at 5 the coalition won't get 40% but a bit less

2: They have more autobomy and airtime instead of being a PSD appendix

[Former President tack50]

Sure but my point was that even on that scenario the joint list wouldn't get 35% but more like 32%. Of course it could still be worth it in the end since it seems that Portugal's system is very similar to ours (and thus punishes small parties unless they are regional based, but those are illegal in Portugal anyways).

[Former President tack50]

If he is somehow succesful, I guess Antonio Costa will 100% get an overall majority? Either that or because of infighting CDS rises a lot

[Former President tack50]

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.

Will it get any traction? Also, will it be just a socially conservative party, or will it also try to become some sort of right wing populist party? (being against inmigration and the like)

[Former President tack50]

So I guess it's a north vs south cultural thing and not really connected to politics?

For all what's worth at least here across the border there's certainly not such a pattern. If anything, the dynamic would be center (or culturally "only Spanish") vs periphery.

]http://img.europapress.es/fotoweb/fotonoticia_20161022085130_640.jpg

Also interestingly, bullfighting seems reasonably popular in the Azores and Madeira while here the Canary Islands were the first region to ban bullfighting! (and technically, the only ban still standing as the Catalonia ban was overturned)

I'd have thought the reasons that made bullfighting unpopular in the Canary Islands (mainly the lack of pastures to grow bulls and the fact that they have to be brought from the mainland) would also apply to Azores and Madeira at least

[Former President tack50]

Why is Rabelo de Sousa so popular? (to the point where  he ends as the most popular president ever!)

[Former President tack50]

Since a PS-PSD coalition is pretty much impossible, I assume a better way of looking at it might be through "blocks" (ie PS-BE-CDU vs PSD-CDS). In that case the current government would be headed for a landslide (something like 54-37 by the looks of it).

They should still fall short of any supermajority thresholds Portugal has for changing the constitution unilaterally (I assume it's either 3/5 or 2/3, plus probably a referendum)

[Former President tack50]

Wait, why is the Alliance perceived as more centrist?

And especially, why is CDS perceived as more centrist than PSD, I thought it was the opposite?

[Former President tack50]

I imagine it will end up like the first no confidence vote here, which was pretty much a vanity show for Podemos that ended up harming them in the long run and was generally seen as a waste of everyone's time.

Maybe Portugal will be different though? Will Cristas herself have to run as a PM candidate or is it a "destructive" motion? (where Portugal goes directly into a snap election)

[Former President tack50]

Update on the opinion poll chart since 2001:



The current average of polls gives something like this:

37% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDS
  9% BE
  7% CDU
  3% PAN
  2% Alliance
  8% Others/Invalid

Most interesting thing about that graph is probably how CDS managed to easily survive the coalition with PSD. I'd have expected them to be absorbed by the larger party.

[Former President tack50]

What's the minimum threshold to get a seat? With those seats, it would be around 1.75% de facto (in order to get 1 for Lisbon)

[Former President tack50]

Wait so Costa is resigning over such a bill? Since PS is ahead in the polls why not call an election instead?

[Former President tack50]

What would be PAN's demands to PS if PS-PAN got a majority? As I understand the relations between PS and CDU/BE aren't exactly great from what I've heard.

[Former President tack50]

I would have expected CDU to do best with those without high school! I kind of associate them with older, rural folks in the Alentejo.

They are still the 3rd largest party in that category. Nonetheless, it's interesting to see that if you have a higher school degree, you're more likely to vote PSD, and if you have a low school degree, you're more likely to vote PS. Also interesting it's the HUGE support PS has among elder voters, in contrast with younger and middle age voters, where in some ages, PS basically ties with PSD.

Adding to the exit poll data, here's the parish map of the EP elections in Portugal: (made by myself)

Wow, that is a really nice map, thank you! It must have taken you a ton of time to complete (I certainly can't imagine doing a parish map like that myself)

It also seems PS won a landslide. Beyond that I can't really get any "weird" things in the map, looks like a fairly standard Portuguese election map for a PS landslide.

Come to think about it, why didn't PSD win any parishes around Porto or Lisbon? I would have expected your usual "rich suburbs" to vote for them?

And what's with the CDU parish right south of Lisboa on the other side of the bay?

[Former President tack50]

Ventura also announced that his party will present a candidate against Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in 2021, as he accused Marcelo of wanting to take selfies with criminals than with police officers. He also announce he will meet with Spanish Vox members next week. He labeled Vox as a "coherent party with strong values" and that he will say that Portugal also has its own Vox.

Oh no, it's spreading

Now seriously, isn't Marcelo ridiculously popular? I would not be surprised if he only faced token opposition

[Former President tack50]

Do the leaders from the major parties run as heads for Lisbon (or another large province) like they always do here because of prestige and being "safer seats" (as they have more seats)? Or do they instead just run where they live/grew up?

Where will presumably the leaders from the major parties run?

[Former President tack50]

This got a lot of buzz on social media...

PNR, National Renovator Party, slogan for the 2019 general elections:
https://twitter.com/pnr/status/1160070926991577088

Our campaign motto in these 2019 elections. Who accompanies us? Make Portugal great again.

Yeah... let's go back to the 15th century, when we owned half of the world.

Reminds me of when Vox here ran under "Make Spain Great Again" in 2016 and got 0.2% of the vote. Now they got 10%

So if trends hold across the border PNR will enter parliament in 2023

[Former President tack50]

Why is BE doing so well? (Especially compared to CDU)

[Former President tack50]

No 5 way debates with all main candidates?

A debate between Costa and Jeronimo de Sousa seems weird. I would expect a general debate (with all parties) or a debate between just the 2 who can theoretically form a government (PS and PSD), not a debate with one of the large parties and a small one.

[Former President tack50]

Is there any concrete proposal for regionalization/devolution or just a vague term?

How would those "Portuguese regions" look like? Something like Spain's autonomous communities? A fully federal Portugal? Or maybe just a bit of devolution but not too much?

[Former President tack50]

Since the regional election is shortly before the general, could the 2 back to back elections depress turnout in Madeira?

Also, why not hold both on the same day?

[Former President tack50]

Wait, so PSD+CDS came within 1 seat of not having a majority? That is astonishing considering Madeira is  a right wing stronghold

[Former President tack50]

So Chega got in and Portugal has left the select club of countries with no far right parties?

RIP FF 

Oh well, at least it's 1.3% and not like 10%

[Former President tack50]

So "moderate" Sanchez is now espousing rhetoric and threats that could very well be coming out of the Chinese Communist Party instead. There is little hope for the Catalans, or anyone abroad who supports them. As for Joacine, let's say I'm not planning to cross Livre's box in an election any time soon anymore.

For what's worth official Chinese media are using Spain as an example of "See, other countries do it too!"

https://twitter.com/ChinaDaily/status/1184110427497738240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...