Portugal's politics and elections

[Farmlands]

Had no idea there was early voting here, but I only could vote for the first time in the last local elections and didn't look much into it because they are barely important in comparison to the legislative ones.

Also, I don't see any signs of a growing extreme-right movement either. We have very few refugees in comparison to other EU countries, salaries and pensions are being raised, etc. Assuming past trends hold, the far-right PNR should get only about 0,8% of the vote.

[Farmlands]

Feels like I am watching Germany's SPD here, how low can one of the main centre establishment parties go? I don't even have any idea why people dislike Rui Rio so much, I wouldn't vote for him because of political ideology, but I can't see why long-time right wing voters would not either.

[Farmlands]

Yes, it was kind of embarrassing to watch the news reports about the movement, specially given the contrast between what the media predicted could happen and the actual day of the manifestation. But should it really be such a surprise, when they simply co-opted the movement from France, without a clear message to back it up and the leader of the nationalist party joining the protests?

[Farmlands]

While the PSD is in a national party council, as we speak, that will decide the fate of Rio, here's an interesting chart that shows the various party strength on social media:

Sum of party followers on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:


From here.

The fact that a new party with only 1 member in parliament has a bigger following on social media than one of the big two mainstream parties speaks volumes about the PS' youth strategy. Anyway, I'm not expecting Montenegro to succeed. If anything, the timing makes this look extremely opportunistic.

[Farmlands]

I know increasing pensions and all those benefits has made the PS popular with older people, but why isn't the youth gravitating towards the left like in many other countries? My theory is that only with the rise of far-right movements does the rookie voting population swing to its most vocal opponents to counter it.

[Farmlands]

What in the world? Everything was good until this nonsensical flip by the right-wing parties just to create some chaos. It would all seem to work in favour of the PS, but Costa is threatening to resign instead of calling a new election where he would look like the reasonable hero! Just counterintuitive moves all around.

[Farmlands]

Anectodal evidence disclaimer, but I will surely switch my vote from the Left Bloc to PS these legislative elctions after this crisis, if only because I think fiscal responsibility and general sanity should be rewarded, specially when it comes to a vulnerable country like Portugal.

[Farmlands]

I guess in the European elections we got to see fallout of the teachers crisis for PSD, low turnout nonetheless. It's kind of ominous that there have only been PS victories since I became of voting age, the result of a constantly embattled rival party, there should always be a healthy opposition in my opinion.

[Farmlands]

Well, Marcelo has 80+ approval ratings and can unite voters from all across the spectrum, including a pretty left leaning one like me. In any case, seems like Ventura's party might be the Portuguese far-right's future, still away though, and not PNR like I would've imagined.

[Farmlands]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

43.2% PS (+2.8 )
21.6% PSD (-0.9)
  9.2% BE (+1.0)
  6.8% CDU (+0.3)
  6.0% CDS (-0.1)
  3.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Alliance (-0.3)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 8 and 14 July 2019. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.54%.

I honestly doubt the difference will be that stark, bad leaders in the right or not. And polls like this are just making my decision of who to vote for even more difficult, not sure I want a PS absolute majority.

[Farmlands]

I think the support from BE/CDU may have perversely enabled PS to pursue a more right-wing course than they otherwise would have, by nullifying left-wing opposition both in parliament and the streets, in exchange for policies that often ended up hurting the most disadvantaged, such as the 35h for public workers resulting in a further decline of the already fragile public services, namely healthcare. It has been perplexing and even infuriating how some foreign media portray this government as some sort of progressive heroes.

From a left-wing point of view it might be best if at least PCP return to opposition in the next term.

You may be right on the nullification of most left-wing opposition, but this government is still what gave us a higher minimum wage, fairer habitation contracts, etc. which never would have mustered a conservative one. Reminds me of Blair's rule, which got support from nearly everyone, but alienated leftists as well.

[Farmlands]

Why is BE doing so well? (Especially compared to CDU)

My take on it as a semi-regular BE voter: CDU's base, as many polls have shown, is largely old and rural, which is slowly dying off, and not bringing in any new young voters with their mix of old school communism and neutrality or conservatism on social issues.

Meanwhile, BE appeals to a growing urban and young audience who might care about LGBT equality or marijuana legalization or even healthcare nationalisation a bit more.

[Farmlands]

Electoral compass for the 2019 general elections:

https://www.bussolapolitica.org/

Enjoy!

Got closest to PAN. Too much of a one issue party for me though, helping the environment won't solve the rising rent prices many people have to deal with, for example. About the same distance from BE and PS, which coincidentally, are the two parties which I'm undecided between for the next election.

[Farmlands]

This doesn't seem to have the makings of a major scandal to me, unlike Tancos. Now that seems to be hurting PS a lot and will probably benefit the smaller parties, given the D'Hondt method. Curious to see how a more diverse parliament would function and be covered by the media.

[Farmlands]

Just came back from the voting booth. Ultimately ended up going for the Left Bloc, based on the party leaders, since I couldn't decide otherwise. Let's see if I can get a close projection:

PS - 38% (S&D)
PSD - 28% (EPP)
BE - 11% (GUE)
CDU - 7% (GUE)
CDS - 5% (EPP)
PAN - 4% (EFA)

[Farmlands]

Rio criticised SIC's result projection last night, but his party still ended up in the range they had predicted for him, just in the upper range. I know it's business as usual for him, but it creates distrust in our fairly accurate media.

[Farmlands]

So "moderate" Sanchez is now espousing rhetoric and threats that could very well be coming out of the Chinese Communist Party instead. There is little hope for the Catalans, or anyone abroad who supports them. As for Joacine, let's say I'm not planning to cross Livre's box in an election any time soon anymore.