PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9
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  PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9
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Author Topic: PA-Morning Call/Muhlenberg College: Clinton +9  (Read 6671 times)
heatcharger
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« on: September 17, 2016, 07:12:31 PM »
« edited: September 17, 2016, 07:15:11 PM by heatcharger »

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 5%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 12-16.

This pollster has an A rating on 538.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2016, 07:13:25 PM »

Never heard of this pollster... Probably junk. C+5 sounds more like it
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2016, 07:14:26 PM »

But muh Trump surge?!?

Never heard of this pollster... Probably junk. C+5 sounds more like it

A rating on 538, with a 0.5 Republican bias
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2016, 07:14:48 PM »

Post "bad weekend"
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2016, 07:15:12 PM »

ABSOLUTELY TREMENDOUS!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2016, 07:15:55 PM »

But muh Trump surge?!?

Never heard of this pollster... Probably junk. C+5 sounds more like it

A rating on 538
Oh. Oh my... Still tempted to say this is an outlier, but I wouldn't be shocked to see C+7 given this, and C+5 or so nationally (agrees with Gallup)
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2016, 07:17:15 PM »

Mornings Call wasn't bad in 2012. They had Obama leading by 5 at the end of October.
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Wells
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2016, 07:19:24 PM »

Clinton is probably leading Pennsylvania, but by 9? This was taken completely after the pneumonia and deplorables, too. Probably junk.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2016, 07:20:41 PM »

Hillary continues to dominate in the Southeast part of the state 56-26. Philly suburbs will carry the state for Clinton.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2016, 07:20:52 PM »

Clinton is probably leading Pennsylvania, but by 9? This was taken completely after the pneumonia and deplorables, too. Probably junk.

They're not a bad pollster though so I wouldnt classify it as junk just yet.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2016, 07:21:38 PM »

Even though it does look fairly Clinton-friendly, it still shows that Trump is going to have a hard time getting to 270, and that PA was never going to be easy to flip.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2016, 07:23:10 PM »

Clinton is probably leading Pennsylvania, but by 9? This was taken completely after the pneumonia and deplorables, too. Probably junk.

Also taken partially during the birther controversy. Probably didn't go over well with the college educated in the Philadelphia suburbs.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2016, 07:28:13 PM »

Looks like PA might actually trend D this time.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2016, 07:30:25 PM »

Looks like PA might actually trend D this time.

If that poll is true, it will be as competitive as Illinois in the future.

Well, either Pennsylvania is definitely falling away or people are lying to the survey.
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Figueira
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2016, 07:37:42 PM »

Maybe an outlier, but certainly not "junk."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2016, 07:43:44 PM »

Never heard of this pollster... Probably junk. C+5 sounds more like it

538 has Muhlenberg with an A rating and R+0.5 basis.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2016, 07:51:20 PM »

Give that the MOE is 5.5%, I think C+7 makes some sense as a result.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2016, 07:53:42 PM »

Awesome news! Go Clinton.

Hopefully, she can get ahead again in Florida and NEV.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2016, 07:56:26 PM »

Even though it does look fairly Clinton-friendly, it still shows that Trump is going to have a hard time getting to 270, and that PA was never going to be easy to flip.

He doesn't need. Current states with the advantage plus either Wisconsin or Colorado wins it for him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2016, 08:00:17 PM »

Even though it does look fairly Clinton-friendly, it still shows that Trump is going to have a hard time getting to 270, and that PA was never going to be easy to flip.

He doesn't need. Current states with the advantage plus either Wisconsin or Colorado wins it for him.

So it's not going to happen...
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2016, 08:03:34 PM »

He doesn't need. Current states with the advantage plus either Wisconsin or Colorado wins it for him.

taking which numbers? 538/RCP-average? ^^
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2016, 08:04:06 PM »

Even though it does look fairly Clinton-friendly, it still shows that Trump is going to have a hard time getting to 270, and that PA was never going to be easy to flip.

He doesn't need. Current states with the advantage plus either Wisconsin or Colorado wins it for him.

So it's not going to happen...

I'd wait for more CO and WI polls, but I think PA is definitely gone for him. Maybe PA is going the way of Illinois and New Jersey, who knows.

Maybe Wisconsin, but Colorado is too educated for Trump.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2016, 08:09:50 PM »

can't imagine that clinton would lose WI without proto-liberal feingold losing too and that seems like a no-go anyway.

feingold is going to energize the fringle-liberal part of the elecotorate for sure and WI republicans seemed to hate trump for a long time...looks like the swallowed him more or less but i am not so sure about their motivation level.
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Spark
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« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2016, 08:13:08 PM »

I'm so disappointed that he won't be winning here. C +3 in the end.
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JJC
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« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2016, 08:40:25 PM »

I don't think she's ahead by 9. Last poll was from Quinnipiac at +5 and that was just before 'The Fall'. I doubt she's gained since then, which goes against the trends.

I know, I know. Different pollsters and methodologies.

But my gut tells me this state is within five points.
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