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Author Topic: Upshot/Siena Voter File FL Poll Clinton +1  (Read 2543 times)
Classic Conservative
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« on: September 19, 2016, 05:33:44 am »

Clinton: 41
Trump: 40


Head to Head
Clinton: 43
Trump: 43
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/19/upshot/florida-poll-clinton-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0
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matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 05:39:24 am »

Great news! If Clinton can win florida = over.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2016, 05:39:46 am »

Whew! I was expecting the Donald to be ahead by 4 points. It's on par with the 2012 election.
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2016, 05:41:02 am »

I thought for sure Clinton would be trailing since this was taken during her sick spell so this is very good news for HRC
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2016, 05:41:45 am »

Yep, Trump's already losing momentum. Confirms PA, maybe with a little adjustment
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2016, 05:45:52 am »

A true tossup as usual.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2016, 05:49:29 am »

Clinton actually has far more room to grow if you look at the enthusiasm levels and the poll's stated inability to catch the newest registrants, which is part of the weighting. So this is even better news than I thought. The poll write up says that Clinton could expand her lead to 6 points while trumps path to victory is far narrower
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Seriously?
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2016, 06:04:58 am »

I thought for sure Clinton would be trailing since this was taken during her sick spell so this is very good news for HRC
Actually, it wasn't completely. The dates are 9/10-14, so there's 2 days pre-sick, 4 days post-sick, assuming the date of the sickness is a wash.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2016, 06:12:53 am »


Crosstab. Very Suspicious.

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/FLUpshot0916_159_Crosstabs.pdf

Less than college(4way): TRUMP 41%, Hillary 40%. really?

1) CNN, FL, 9/7-9/12, 788 LV
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/floridapoll.pdf
Less than college(4way): TRUMP 50% | Hillary 40%

2) Quinnipiac, FL 8/29-9/7, 761 LV
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/sfl09082016_crosstabs_pg92cxm.pdf
White-non-college(4wau): TRUMP 57% | Hillary 29%
(well this one, crosstab doesn’t show the entire non-college voters, but you can easily guess it couldn’t be dead heat like NYT/Siena(non-college): 41%-40%. )
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2016, 06:16:46 am »

Well, it's not surprising she does better with non-college voters in a poll she's tied than in a poll where she's down by 3.

More weird: she goes from 80% to 82% of Blacks when going from the 2-way to the 4-way.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2016, 06:18:37 am by calvinhobbesliker »Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2016, 06:17:52 am »

Well, it's not surprising she does better with non-college voters in a poll she's tied than in a poll where she's down by 3.
And this ignores that minorities are EXTREMELY Democratic, so that even if they are only like a third of the non-college vote they can push it pretty far towards Clinton. AS far as the first poll goes, combined with noise a 9-point swing of a mid-sized subsample during an overall 4-point swing makes some sense, as calvin said.
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2016, 06:26:37 am »

Wait so the area near Ft. Myers is tied with a small Clinton lead?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2016, 06:30:35 am »

While we should ignore StatesPoll, Clinton generally does decently with the non-college educated vote, since such a large part of the minority vote is non-college.
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This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2016, 06:54:07 am »

Excellent poll, this was taken 100% before the birtherism popped back up.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
Dumbo
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2016, 07:32:42 am »

Older people in Florida love comebacks from illness.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2016, 07:54:21 am »

Florida too close to call... that's how 2012 went.  Florida was the difference between 303 and 332 electoral votes that year.  Florida inconclusive going into the last weeks of the Presidential election? I'm accustomed to that.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2016, 07:57:29 am »

Trump is a weak candidate and since he has poor standings with Latinos, FL is still in play.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2016, 08:37:32 am »

Better than I expected frankly
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2016, 09:36:15 am »

Better than I expected frankly

Yeah... lot of noise in the polls this year though, both from more undecideds, and a bunch of different methodologies among pollsters.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2016, 09:37:31 am »

Florida is a toss-up. News at 11.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2016, 10:26:24 am »


Liberal's hero 'Nate Silver' adjusted leader of this Poll, TRUMP +1% Wink
It seems he partially admits, this poll is skewed. (Especially, Non-College Voters)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2016, 11:09:57 am »

Good.
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"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Dumbo
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« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2016, 11:12:36 am »


Liberal's hero 'Nate Silver' adjusted leader of this Poll, TRUMP +1% Wink
It seems he partially admits, this poll is skewed. (Especially, Non-College Voters)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus

From the last 10 FL polls he adjusted 7 in favour of Trump - Trump's hero!
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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2016, 12:14:58 pm »

All things considered, not a bad poll for Hillary at all. Florida is very much in play.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2016, 01:14:58 pm »

Is this actually a real poll?

I read the article, which is quite interesting, and got the impression that this is more a data analytical software forecasting/modelling as used by professional major campaigns.

Did I miss something?
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