Upshot/Siena Voter File FL Poll Clinton +1

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Yep, Trump's already losing momentum. Confirms PA, maybe with a little adjustment

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Well, it's not surprising she does better with non-college voters in a poll she's tied than in a poll where she's down by 3.

And this ignores that minorities are EXTREMELY Democratic, so that even if they are only like a third of the non-college vote they can push it pretty far towards Clinton. AS far as the first poll goes, combined with noise a 9-point swing of a mid-sized subsample during an overall 4-point swing makes some sense, as calvin said.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Given the above article, one thing I find unusual about US polling is how little pollsters pry into a respondents past voting behaviour, despite it being a very good indicator for future voting behaviour.

The thing is, many people don't want to admit that they voted for the loser. This is why LA Times is skewed, for instance.