Upshot/Siena Voter File FL Poll Clinton +1 (user search)
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  Upshot/Siena Voter File FL Poll Clinton +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Upshot/Siena Voter File FL Poll Clinton +1  (Read 3715 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,435
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« on: September 19, 2016, 01:14:58 PM »

Is this actually a real poll?

I read the article, which is quite interesting, and got the impression that this is more a data analytical software forecasting/modelling as used by professional major campaigns.

Did I miss something?
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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*****
Posts: 11,435
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 03:32:26 PM »

Is this actually a real poll?

I read the article, which is quite interesting, and got the impression that this is more a data analytical software forecasting/modelling as used by professional major campaigns.

Did I miss something?

Yes, it's a real poll, but using some of those analytical techniques to select the sample of voters polled, instead of calling random telephone numbers.  The theory is that this will produce a more accurate picture of the electorate.

Well it is an interesting variation of "traditional" polling models, and if that's how they're doing this, it will be interesting to see more of this model, especially closer to the election and see how they score on accuracy.
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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*****
Posts: 11,435
United States


« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2016, 02:49:02 PM »

Patrick Ruffini looked at the numbers from the undecided/uncommitted pool of voters in the Upshot poll and found that 52% of them were Dem, 31% indy and less than 20% GOP

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/778289855981842433

Far more room for Clinton to grow than Trump in FL

This could well explain the wide variation in recent Florida polling numbers....
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