Upshot/Siena Voter File FL Poll Clinton +1

[dspNY]

I thought for sure Clinton would be trailing since this was taken during her sick spell so this is very good news for HRC

[dspNY]

Clinton actually has far more room to grow if you look at the enthusiasm levels and the poll's stated inability to catch the newest registrants, which is part of the weighting. So this is even better news than I thought. The poll write up says that Clinton could expand her lead to 6 points while trumps path to victory is far narrower

[dspNY]

Clinton only getting 30% of whites in 4-way 35% in 2 way, warning signs for Ds for future election that we haven't reached bottom with whites yet. Obama got 37% in '12 how low can Ds go with whites?

There are almost 20% undecided in the 2016 comparison with Clinton getting 35% of whites whereas the 37% Obama got is forever locked in. It actually shows that if Clinton gets 37% of whites, she wins FL

[dspNY]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot

Upshot gave 4 pollsters the data they got, and let them reweight it.

Marquette Law (weighted to Census and vote intention): Clinton +3
Echelon Insights (weighted to voter file, history/intention): Clinton +1
Penn Shoen Berland Research (voter file, intention): Clinton +4
Corbett-Davies, Gelman, Rothschild (vote history): Trump +1

A net five-point difference between the five measures, including our own, even though all are based on identical data. In general, the participants who used vote history in the likely-voter model showed a better result for Mr. Trump.

So Nate Silver pretty much wants clicks when he reweighed this poll to Trump +1. In reality, when you average those out, the poll should have been reweighed to Clinton +2 on 538

[dspNY]

Patrick Ruffini looked at the numbers from the undecided/uncommitted pool of voters in the Upshot poll and found that 52% of them were Dem, 31% indy and less than 20% GOP

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/778289855981842433

Far more room for Clinton to grow than Trump in FL