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Author Topic: CA-Field Poll: Clinton +17  (Read 1312 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: September 19, 2016, 11:40:59 pm »

50% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
6% Stein (G)
5% Johnson (L)

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/presidential-election/article102803037.html
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 11:42:11 pm »

OMG we've hit peak Stein!!!

Duck, run... everyone save your vaccines.
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2016, 11:42:24 pm »

Stein is running on two tickets now! Wow!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2016, 11:46:21 pm »

Surprisingly weak for Clinton actually.  But was this the poll that underestimated Obama all through 2012?
Field has pretty terrible record.
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 12:13:41 am »

RIP Johnson.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2016, 12:57:35 am »

Stein beating Johnson! Woot!
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2016, 05:20:36 am »

Surprisingly weak for Clinton actually.  But was this the poll that underestimated Obama all through 2012?
Field has pretty terrible record.

It actually has the best record of any long term pollster and would explain why we see Stein at 4% in some national polls. Remember how bitter the Sanders California delegation was at the DNC
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2016, 08:41:12 am »

This is not unreasonable. CA will be Stein's bestbstate
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2016, 09:30:43 am »

New Poll: California President by Field Research Corporation on 2016-09-13

Summary: D: 50%, R: 33%, I: 11%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2016, 10:43:48 am »

This is not unreasonable. CA will be Stein's bestbstate

If we're talking about total votes received, of course.

If we're talking about percentages, I doubt it. It might be in the top five or six though.

I'd be pretty surprised if Vermont wasn't her best state in terms of the % of the vote she gets.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2016, 05:21:04 am by Eraserhead »Logged

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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2016, 11:32:22 am »

This is not unreasonable. CA will be Stein's bestbstate

If we're talking about total votes received, of course.

If we're talking about percentages, I doubt it. It'll probably be in her top five or six.

I'd be pretty surprised if Vermont wasn't her best sate though.

Vermont counts all write in votes. I'd bet that Bernie will take a percent or two from Stein.

Not that CA will be Stein's best state by percentage though. It will be her best by number of votes though. Probably Johnson's best by sheer number of votes too.

I'm guessing that Johnson will beat Stein though.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 11:35:45 am by Fubart Solman »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 01:05:54 am »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 01:07:52 am by Sbane »Logged
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 02:03:17 am »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I just can't see her losing Riverside County. State Democrats have been registering Latinos here like crazy, particularly in the Coachella Valley and Riverside city. My belief is that middle class Latinos will eventually come home and Riverside County goes about 51/52% for Hillary.

At least for the downballots, Democrats look to be doing very well in Riverside this year
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2016, 02:23:20 am »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I just can't see her losing Riverside County. State Democrats have been registering Latinos here like crazy, particularly in the Coachella Valley and Riverside city. My belief is that middle class Latinos will eventually come home and Riverside County goes about 51/52% for Hillary.

At least for the downballots, Democrats look to be doing very well in Riverside this year

I agree with you. Which is why I am very skeptical of the polls out of Nevada. It doesn't make sense to me. I can envision a swing to Trump in San Bernardino County though. See how it voted in 2014 while the rest of the state was swinging hard to Brown (though Brown overperformed in 2010 to be fair).
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2016, 02:48:43 am »

So Clinton is up 7 in south coast which is San Diego + Orange County but tied in Other Southern California which is mainly the inland empire. That confirms the tight polls in Nevada. There are also more undecided voters....I think it would be funny if Clinton wins Orange County only to end up losing Riverside County at the same time. Or the "undecided" middle class Latinos who populate these areas (and many parts of Clark County Nevada) come home for Hillary against the bigot. We shall see.

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I think you're underestimating just how difficult it is to properly poll Latinos.

The reality is that there aren't that many "middle class" Latinos in either Clark County or Riverside County of the sort that you're describing. Almost any household that is Spanish-speaking and Mexican-American will not be voting for Trump; there are no "undecided" voters in this category. The issue is that, for reasons relating to sampling, the poll is probably picking up more third or fourth generation Mexican-Americans than exist in the voting population of California. These are the only Hispanics who would consider voting for Trump...

I'd be willing to bet that polls are disastrously wrong across the board in estimating the preferences of Hispanic voters; Spanish-speaking immigrants and their children are segmented from society, they frequently move because they tend to be tenants etc. They're a very difficult group to poll, even if a Spanish-language option is available. The ones who speak Spanish, particularly if they are Mexican, are uniformly hostile towards Trump and about as engaged as voters with of their demographic background can be. Suffice it to say that I expect Clinton to crush Trump in the Inland Empire; it's going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions, unparalleled in history for both counties.
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2016, 03:11:28 am »

OMG we've hit peak Stein!!!

Duck, run... everyone save your vaccines.

CA will be her best state most probably.
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2016, 04:02:38 am »

Suffice it to say that I expect Clinton to crush Trump in the Inland Empire; it's going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions, unparalleled in history for both counties.

This has been my opinion since the spring. The voter registration numbers out of Riverside County are quite astounding to me. Since January, its gone from 38-36 Republican to 38-37 Democrat. In just the last 7 days, Democrats gained 2550 voters while thee Republicans gained 465 voters. Local legislature districts that were fairly red are now flipping blue in a matter of weeks.

In my opinion, this is the year Riverside County locks in its blueness (Or redness, for Atlas sake) and waves goodbye to any vestiges of the Reagan Republicans
« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 04:08:13 am by Interlocutor »Logged
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2016, 11:47:20 am »

Also, could Stein actually win Humboldt or Mendocino counties? It probably won't happen but she will likely hit double digits there.

I doubt she will win any counties, but stranger things have happened this year. I do agree that she will hit double digits in those counties. Nader and Camejo topped out at about 16% in the early 2000's. Stein got 4.34% in 2012 in Humboldt with Rosanne Barr and Cindy Sheehan taking 0.64%. Mendocino went 2.84% Stein and 0.94% Barr in 2012. I could see Stein breaking 15% in both; 20% would be a stretch.

In the 2002 gubernatorial race, Peter Camejo got 5.26% statewide and 12.05% in Hunboldt. I looked it up a few weeks ago and Camejo actually won three precincts in Humboldt County. Camejo got 16.54% in Mendocino, but I couldn't find results by precinct that far back when I checked.
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2016, 05:27:29 am »

Stein won't win any counties but if she did I'm sure they'd be in Vermont.

Maybe Johnson can win one or two somewhere though.
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