AP/GfK National: Clinton +6/+6 (and at 50 in the 2-way)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Hillary actually wins by 6, she'll get more than 272 EV. I'm very confident about that.

Yeah... From a tied race (freiwal only), I see NC flipping at 0.5, NV and FL around 1.5, OH and ME-02 around 3, Iowa and NE-02 following at 5, then AZ/GA a bit later (7-8 or so) and MO/SC around 10. So by that estimate, she'd win Obama 2008-IN if she were up 6, which actually makes perfect sense given that the margin was around 7 that election

In a tied race up to Clinton +1, VA, NH, CO, PA, NH, MI, and WI go to Clinton, but most <5%, and some will be razor-thin margins for Clinton.  FL, NV, and NC could go either way. 

I think we're headed for Clinton +4 when all is said and done, probably something like 48%-44%.  The 272 will be a foregone conclusion, probably NV, too.  FL/NC/OH/ME-2 will be your pure tossups.  They could go either way.  IA and NE-2 will look like pretty certain Trump victories, and AZ/GA will be out of the conversation.

Clinton +4% Confidence Map:

Now, if you're talking about +6 Clinton (which at this point is a rather distant probability):

Clinton +6% Confidence Map: