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Author Topic: Nevada - KNTV/Rasmussen: Trump + 3 (4-way)  (Read 1408 times)
Seriously?
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« on: September 20, 2016, 08:34:14 am »

KNTV/Rasmussen Reports Trump +3
Trump 42%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 11%

800 LV; MOE +/- 4%; September 16-18, 2016

Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/nevada/election_2016_nevada_president
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2016, 08:35:06 am »

As I've been saying all along... NEVADA IS A TOSSUP! STOP DENYING IT!
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2016, 08:35:48 am »

Rasmussen does state polls?
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2016, 08:36:22 am »

As I've been saying all along... NEVADA IS A TOSSUP! STOP DENYING IT!

Hope this is sarcasm. It won't be particularly close on election day. Minorities are underpolled, and this is Rasmussen.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 08:38:29 am »

As I've been saying all along... NEVADA IS A TOSSUP! STOP DENYING IT!

Hope this is sarcasm. It won't be particularly close on election day. Minorities are underpolled, and this is Rasmussen.

Since we cant access the crosstabs in the account, we dont know if they polled Spanish speakers either.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2016, 08:43:03 am »

Rasmussen does state polls?
Someone actually paid the firm formerly owned by Rasmussen to do a few in Nevada. They used to do a lot more in previous cycles. Not so much anymore.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2016, 08:43:53 am »

As I've been saying all along... NEVADA IS A TOSSUP! STOP DENYING IT!

Hope this is sarcasm. It won't be particularly close on election day. Minorities are underpolled, and this is Rasmussen.

Since we cant access the crosstabs in the account, we dont know if they polled Spanish speakers either.

It's Rasmussen, likely just Robo to land lines in English. Not even sure if they do Internet like PPP does for some of the sample to make up for it.
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2016, 08:54:04 am »

Rasmussen has an online poll component, like PPP.
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2016, 08:59:18 am »

As I've been saying all along... NEVADA IS A TOSSUP! STOP DENYING IT!

Hope this is sarcasm. It won't be particularly close on election day. Minorities are underpolled, and this is Rasmussen.

Bloomberg is running a great series (don't feel like posting a thread since they don't have all states yet), counting hard/soft supporters by campaign, and persuadables. All she needs to do is GOTV, not even 1 persuadable, and she wins. Considering 2008 and 2012, I think she'll win.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-20/gaming-the-six-week-election-day

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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2016, 09:15:10 am »

Rasmussen does state polls?

Scott Rasmussen used to. He sold out to an entity that still uses his name.
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2016, 10:05:26 am »

I just can't fathom Drumpf winning Nevada or even coming very close. I've never been bullish on Hillary's chances, but if these polls come true I'll be very surprised.
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2016, 10:07:56 am »

Nevada is a toss-up. News at 11.
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2016, 10:24:50 am »

This is Classy Rassy, so take it with a grain of salt. Nevada might be close right now, but I'd bet a lot of money that it won't be in November, unless we see Trump gaining substantially among Latinos. He's not winning this state with less than 20% of the Latino vote, mark my words.
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2016, 10:27:11 am »

*sticks head in sand* TRUMP WILL LOSE NEVADA BECAUSE MUH HISPANIC FRIEWAL
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2016, 10:38:10 am »

*sticks head in sand* TRUMP WILL LOSE NEVADA BECAUSE MUH HISPANIC FRIEWAL

It's not about ignoring the facts, it's about facing them. Unless Latino turnout goes way down, or Trump improves among Latinos, he would need a ridiculous swing among white voters without a college degree, something like a 30-point swing. Short of any of these three events occurring, it's not mathematically plausible for Trump to win Nevada.
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2016, 10:40:24 am »

Rasmussen. Ignore it.
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2016, 10:46:48 am »

This is Classy Rassy, so take it with a grain of salt. Nevada might be close right now, but I'd bet a lot of money that it won't be in November, unless we see Trump gaining substantially among Latinos. He's not winning this state with less than 20% of the Latino vote, mark my words.

Only Trump isn't under 20% with Latinos in Nevada.  Last NBC/Marist poll showed the race 65/30 with Latinos in NV, Obama beat Romney 74/24 by comparison.  Don't know any polling showing Trump under 20% in the state and most national polling (outside of Latino advocacy based) shows him in the 20-30% range. 
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xingkerui
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2016, 10:54:22 am »

This is Classy Rassy, so take it with a grain of salt. Nevada might be close right now, but I'd bet a lot of money that it won't be in November, unless we see Trump gaining substantially among Latinos. He's not winning this state with less than 20% of the Latino vote, mark my words.

Only Trump isn't under 20% with Latinos in Nevada.  Last NBC/Marist poll showed the race 65/30 with Latinos in NV, Obama beat Romney 74/24 by comparison.  Don't know any polling showing Trump under 20% in the state and most national polling (outside of Latino advocacy based) shows him in the 20-30% range. 

There's a reason to trust these polls. They include Spanish interviews, which picks up on voters that polls such as these do not. These polls were very accurate in 2012, more so than state polls in states like CO and NV, which didn't merely undersample Latinos, but didn't conduct any interviews in Spanish, which meant that their polls overestimated Romney's support among Latinos.
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2016, 11:09:04 am »

Not the largest Trump lead Rasmussen has found in Nevada. Pretty sure one of their previous polls has Trump +5.
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2016, 11:26:03 am »

*sticks head in sand* TRUMP WILL LOSE NEVADA BECAUSE MUH HISPANIC FRIEWAL

It's not about ignoring the facts, it's about facing them. Unless Latino turnout goes way down, or Trump improves among Latinos, he would need a ridiculous swing among white voters without a college degree, something like a 30-point swing. Short of any of these three events occurring, it's not mathematically plausible for Trump to win Nevada.

You're assuming Clinton will be able to mobilize the Democratic turnout machine in Nevada to the same extent Obama could, which is a questionable assumption.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2016, 11:27:38 am »

*sticks head in sand* TRUMP WILL LOSE NEVADA BECAUSE MUH HISPANIC FRIEWAL

It's not about ignoring the facts, it's about facing them. Unless Latino turnout goes way down, or Trump improves among Latinos, he would need a ridiculous swing among white voters without a college degree, something like a 30-point swing. Short of any of these three events occurring, it's not mathematically plausible for Trump to win Nevada.

You're assuming Clinton will be able to mobilize the Democratic turnout machine in Nevada to the same extent Obama could, which is a questionable assumption.

Considering that Trump has pretty much no organization, I think the difference between Hillary's turnout machine and Trump's is comparable to the difference between Obama's and Romney's.
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2016, 11:28:40 am »

Nevada is a toss-up. News at 11.
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2016, 07:46:39 pm »

GOP pundit Liam Donovan shakes his head at this poll. Trump with 37% of Blacks and 34% Hispanics.
https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/778392624495521794
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2016, 07:48:17 pm »

GOP pundit Liam Donovan shakes his head at this poll. Trump with 37% of Blacks and 34% Hispanics.
https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/778392624495521794

LOL no...get those numbers back to normal voting rates and Nevada goes to a tie or +1 Clinton
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matthew27
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« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2016, 07:49:50 pm »

GOP pundit Liam Donovan shakes his head at this poll. Trump with 37% of Blacks and 34% Hispanics.
https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/778392624495521794

Makes it trash
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