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Author Topic: NH-Monmouth: Ayotte +2  (Read 940 times)
heatcharger
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« on: September 21, 2016, 12:08:33 pm »

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_092116/

Ayotte - 47%
Hassan - 45%

Titanium D.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 12:10:24 pm »

Wow, Ayotte is running 11 points ahead of Trump.  Despite what TNVolunteer says, I think this one will go down to the wire.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 12:13:02 pm »

This is just awful. Hassan has no business trailing any poll, let alone a good one.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 12:16:51 pm »

This is a real problem.  There should not be this big of a gap between the Presidential and downballot races.  Clinton needs to tie Trump to Congress much more than she is doing.  Without any coattails, Clinton is going to be the George H.W. Bush of Democratic Presidents.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 12:19:19 pm »

Hard to believe Rubio and Ayotte are leading by same amount. Though Ayotte I think is the kind of pol who could outrun trends, especially somewhere idiosyncratic like NH
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2016, 12:21:32 pm »

TN Volunteer is going to hate me for this, but back to Toss-Up it goes. Emerson, Marist, and Monmouth can't all be wrong.

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MasterJedi
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2016, 12:36:15 pm »

Hope this is true.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2016, 12:42:13 pm »

Monmouth has been showing some strange gaps between Senate races and Presidential races. I'm not sure why NH would swing so hard again Hassan, but Hillary's numbers would hold up.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 01:04:16 pm »

Monmouth has been showing some strange gaps between Senate races and Presidential races. I'm not sure why NH would swing so hard again Hassan, but Hillary's numbers would hold up.

People want Hillary because of who the alternative is, but they don't necessarily want to give her a lot of power to actually do stuff.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2016, 01:08:54 pm »

Monmouth has been showing some strange gaps between Senate races and Presidential races. I'm not sure why NH would swing so hard again Hassan, but Hillary's numbers would hold up.

People want Hillary because of who the alternative is, but they don't necessarily want to give her a lot of power to actually do stuff.

I doubt most voters think that far ahead.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2016, 01:12:34 pm »

WTF
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 01:15:26 pm »

Hope this is true.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 01:16:30 pm »

Monmouth has been showing some strange gaps between Senate races and Presidential races. I'm not sure why NH would swing so hard again Hassan, but Hillary's numbers would hold up.

People want Hillary because of who the alternative is, but they don't necessarily want to give her a lot of power to actually do stuff.

I doubt most voters think that far ahead.

Sure, a large majority don't, but those that do is what's creating this disparity we're seeing where Clinton gaining in the presidential race doesn't often equal equivalent gains in senate races.
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2016, 01:24:34 pm »

Uh-oh. I might have to move this to Tilt R.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2016, 01:34:05 pm »

Statistical margin of error movement.

Hassan will win cause both districts in NH will go DEM, hard to see Ayotte survive what Judd Gregg did.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2016, 01:38:14 pm »

A Republican incumbent at 45% in a blue state, with most undecideds being closeted Hassan supporters? Terrible poll for Ayotte, even though I think she won't lose by more than 3 or 4 points. Still Safe D for now.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2016, 01:43:10 pm »

A Republican incumbent at 45% in a blue state, with most undecideds being closeted Hassan supporters? Terrible poll for Ayotte, even though I think she won't lose by more than 3 or 4 points. Still Safe D for now.

What exactly is a closeted Hassan supporter's incentive to remain "closeted" in a PRIVATE POLL?  LOL
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2016, 01:44:17 pm »

As deplorable as Hassan is, for some reason, there's just something about Ayotte that makes me really, really dislike her. I don't know what, but I just don't. Republicans need to just accept that they've lost this state for good.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2016, 01:47:04 pm »

It seems this race is a toss up and the gubernatorial race is tilts r, This state still appears to be very elastic despite what Tn vol and Heisenberg protest
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2016, 01:47:42 pm »

Unless Ayotte breaks 50% in the pre-election polls (not happening), Hassan will win. She's outspending her by a lot, has a strong ground game and NH is a blue state so most undecideds are likely Democrats. People are getting fooled by those NH polls showing a close race, like in 2012 and 2014. Keep holding out hope but don't be surprised when Ayotte loses on election day.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2016, 01:48:55 pm »

A Republican incumbent at 45% in a blue state, with most undecideds being closeted Hassan supporters? Terrible poll for Ayotte, even though I think she won't lose by more than 3 or 4 points. Still Safe D for now.

She's at 47%. In no other state would a candidate at 47% be considered to have no chance of winning. It's only fair that this goes to Toss-Up (granted I only had it at Lean D, but still)

Unless Ayotte breaks 50% in the polls (not happening), Hassan will win. She's outspending her by aa lot, has a strong ground game and NH is a blue state so most undecideds are likely Democrats. People are getting fooled by those NH polls showing a close race, like in 2012 and 2014. Keep holding out hope but don't be surprised when Ayotte loses on election day.

There is a libertarian candidate on the ballot, so Ayotte might not need 50%, and please, this isn't Massachusetts, undecideds aren't going to break 100% Hassan.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2016, 01:52:10 pm »

Unless Ayotte breaks 50% in the pre-election polls (not happening), Hassan will win. She's outspending her by a lot, has a strong ground game and NH is a blue state so most undecideds are likely Democrats. People are getting fooled by those NH polls showing a close race, like in 2012 and 2014. Keep holding out hope but don't be surprised when Ayotte loses on election day.

Oh, and I'll also point out that Brown was never in the lead outside of a few very R-biased polls. Ayotte has been found ahead by Emerson, Monmouth, and Marist, which have varying political leanings.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2016, 01:52:16 pm »

Despite the atlas meme, there is a good chance the republicans win this race and the governor race as well as the legislature and executive council.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2016, 02:25:06 pm »

Despite the atlas meme, there is a good chance the republicans win this race and the governor race as well as the legislature and executive council.

Sununu would have been toast had the Democrats nominated Stefany Shaheen, but yeah, I would rate the Governors race "Likely D" at this point. The Senate race is fool's gold for Republicans. Hassan can't be stopped.

@Wulfric: A Republican can get to 46% or 47% in NH, but higher than that is almost impossible. The GOP ceiling is below 50%. (2010 was an outlier for obvious reasons)
« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 02:27:22 pm by TN volunteer »Logged
Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2016, 02:26:45 pm »

Despite the atlas meme, there is a good chance the republicans win this race and the governor race as well as the legislature and executive council.

Sununu would have been toast had the Democrats nominated Stefany Shaheen, but yeah, I would rate the Governors race "Likely D" at this point. The Senate race is fool's gold for Republicans. Hassan can't be stopped.
Just like Bernie Sanders couldn't win the NH primary?
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