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| | | | |-+  MU Wisconsin Law Poll: Clinton +2 LV +5 RV 2 Way Clinton +3LV +4RV 4 Way
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Author Topic: MU Wisconsin Law Poll: Clinton +2 LV +5 RV 2 Way Clinton +3LV +4RV 4 Way  (Read 2675 times)
Classic Conservative
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« on: September 21, 2016, 12:23:45 pm »

Clinton:44
Trump:42
2 Way LV

Clinton: 43%
Trump: 38%
2 Way RV

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 38%
Johnson: 11%
Stein: 2%
4 Way LV

Clinton:39%
Trump:35
Johnson:12%
Stein:3%
4 Way RV

« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 12:29:10 pm by Classic Conservative »Logged
Seriously?
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 12:25:06 pm »

Wisconsin? Marquette?
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 12:25:14 pm »

What state is this, and link?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 12:25:55 pm »

What state is this, and link?
Wisconsin
https://mobile.twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/778645810653306880
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 12:26:52 pm »

This is WI/Marquette poll

4 way LV: Clinton 41, Trump 38, Johnson 11, Stein 2
4 way RV: Clinton 39, Trump 35, Johnson 12, Stein 3
2 way RV: Clinton 43, Trump 38

So no change in the 4-way, Clinton loses 1 point in the 2-way. Wisconsin is Lean Dem
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2016, 12:27:04 pm »

What state is this, and link?

It's currently being live tweeted.

Nice to see that the bleeding here essentially stopped. Interesting that neither campaign is reacting like the state is a 2 point margin.
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2016, 12:27:21 pm »

Could be worse.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2016, 12:28:27 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden
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King Francis I
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 12:30:28 pm »

So basically almost basically no change since August?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2016, 12:30:33 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2016, 12:31:06 pm »

Could be worse, seems to be flat since August. It may have drifted to Trump slightly in Interim
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No. For me.
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 12:31:47 pm »

Pretty close to a tossup. Clinton should be performing better here.
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 12:33:22 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2016, 12:34:46 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.

So... PA cannot be Clinton +8, when Wisconsin is Clinton +2, but then, by the same token, Charles Franklin used the NYT data and found Clinton up 3 in Florida? Dude... the states are moving around this year... stop comparing to 2012.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2016, 12:34:57 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.

lol

WI has a completely different make up from PA and CO.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2016, 12:36:12 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.
lol, what a dumb post
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fuck nazis
Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2016, 12:37:10 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.

PA and CO have a much higher % of college educated whites. That makes a big difference.
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2016, 12:38:03 pm »

Potentially concerning, but I'll get worried about Wisconsin when (if?) a poll shows Trump ahead.
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Elizabeth Warren 2020
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2016, 12:38:23 pm »

1.Trump has never led in a WI poll. At this point in 2012 Romney had already led in WI, including in a poll by PPP.
2.Those undecideds will break heavily for Hillary, this is one of the few "swing" states where she has hit 50% on more than one occasion. MU had her at 52-37% among LV after the DNC. Trump will never win WI.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2016, 12:38:39 pm »

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.

PA and CO have a much higher % of college educated whites. That makes a big difference.

Seriously, those two states are closer to VA then they are to WI.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2016, 12:39:34 pm »

Terrifying numbers - the only relief is she's doing better in the four way and Trump's number (42%) isn't really anything to brag about.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2016, 12:43:04 pm »

In other news, Russ up a bit to +6. So, undecideds must still lean Dem for him to be pulling away and her to be stuck. Amazing how a shift of 0 is being treated as the sky falling.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2016, 12:43:33 pm »

Potentially concerning, but I'll get worried about Wisconsin when (if?) a poll shows Trump ahead.

If Clinton is campaign there or both sides put adds up, then I'd get worried.
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2016, 12:47:49 pm »

This shouldn't be unexpected given how far Iowa has swung. Still part of the freiwal.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2016, 12:49:17 pm »

1.Trump has never led in a WI poll. At this point in 2012 Romney had already led in WI, including in a poll by PPP.
2.Those undecideds will break heavily for Hillary, this is one of the few "swing" states where she has hit 50% on more than one occasion. MU had her at 52-37% among LV after the DNC. Trump will never win WI.

you mean august,2012 poll
PPP (D)   8/16 - 8/19   1308 LV   2.7   Obama 47 Romney 48   Romney +1

Romney did worse at mid-late september,2012
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html#polls

Marquette University   9/27 - 9/30   894 LV   Obama 53   Romney 42   Obama +11
WeAskAmerica                  9/20 - 9/23   1238LV     Obama 53   Romney 41   Obama +12
PPP (D)                           9/18 - 9/19   842 LV      Obama 52   Romney 45   Obama +7
NBC/WSJ/Marist              9/16 - 9/18   968 LV    Obama 50   Romney 45   Obama +5
 
Plus, Romney had turnouts problem.
Now Hillary has, less than 200 people in Philly rally.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/photo-donald-trump-draws-massive-crowd-far-more-than-hillary-clinton-in-florida/

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