NBC/WSJ National: Clinton +7/+6

[EpicHistory]

This is their first poll among likely voters.

So this is their first time polling along these lines? Very likely to be an outlier then, especially given the other polling out there that contradicts this.

[Xing]

Obviously we're not going to see Hillary win the PV by an Obama '08 margin, while only getting 272 EV. I think we'll have a better idea which way the race is headed after the debates. Right now, we're probably seeing a mixture of Hillary's bad week and some signs of improvement for her, thus the lack of consensus among pollsters.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Some other numbers:

Non-Hispanic White: 71%
African-American: 12%
Hispanic: 10%
Asian: 2%
Other: 4%

Demographics look right for 2016

Obama job approval: 52/45
Clinton favorables: 37/52, 39% strong disapprove
Trump favorables: 28/61!!! 49% strong disapprove
Democrats: 37/43
Republicans: 29/48
Jill Stein: 9/17, with 25% neutral and 45% with no opinion
Gary Johnson: 14/19, with 29% neutral and 38% with no opinion
Bill Clinton: 45/38
Mike Pence: 26/25 with 21% neutral and 28% with no opinion
Vladimir Putin: 6/66, with 18% neutral and 10% with no opinion. 45% strong disapprove
Melania Trump: 20/28, with 44% neutral
Tim Kaine: 26/19, with 28% neutral and 27% with no opinion
The media: 19/59, with 20% neutral
Mexico: 38/26, with 35% neutral. Only 8% very negative
Canada is universally popular: 75/3!!!

A vote for Clinton: 50% vs. 44% voting for Clinton to stop Trump
A vote for Trump: 41% vs. 51% voting for Trump to stop Clinton

Only 52% of Trump voters on the 4 way ballot think Trump will be a good President
70% of Clinton voters on the 4-way ballot think Clinton will be a good President

Congressional ballot preference: Dems 48, GOP 45

31% of voters plan to vote early or have already voted

49% say the country needs major changes; 47% say stay the course (one of two good stats for Trump)

Immigration helps the country 54/35

Economy: Trump 46/41 (the other good stat for Trump)

Terrorism: Clinton 44/43

Immigration: Clinton 50/39

Improving the country: Clinton 44/38

Good commander in chief: Clinton 48/33

Trust with nukes: Clinton 51/25

Honesty: 41/31 Trump. 25% think both candidates are liars

Temperament: 56/23 Clinton

Knowledge and experience: 60/23 Clinton

58% have reservations or are extremely uncomfortable with Trump's lack of military or governmental experience

Bill Clinton: still somehow the most popular politician in America