NBC/WSJ National: Clinton +7/+6

[heatcharger]

Wait Trumps only at 29% favorable while most polls show him at in the 40's

Uh, no...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=POLITICS&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

[Classic Conservative]

Wait Trumps only at 29% favorable while most polls show him at in the 40's

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=POLITICS&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

Fox News has him at 44%. CNN at 45%. The RCP average has him at 38%. That's ten percent higher than this poll.

[Lief 🗽]

Most polls do not show Trump's favorables in the 40s lol. Maybe you're thinking of Clinton, who is usually high 30s/low 40s.

[Alcon]

Wait Trumps only at 29% favorable while most polls show him at in the 40's

Uh, no...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=POLITICS&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

One poll doesn't really make for "most" although Classic Conservative is still wrong.  That said, 29% is exceptionally low relative to recent results:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

But let's definitely not start unskewing polls based on favorability ratings now...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's looking like a complete LANDSLIDE!

[NOVA Green]

Also, just saw on MTP Chuck talking with the polling folks, and they are estimating turnout will be lower than in '12, but not dramatically lower.

[Fusionmunster]

Before the recent Trump bump and Pneumonia-gate, Trumps favorables ranged from low 30s to high 30s with the occasional low 40 and high 20. Its not surprising there returning to normal.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

[StatesPoll]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-ahead-first-debate-n652141

https://www.scribd.com/document/324821200/16804-NBCWSJ-September-Poll-9-21-Release?secret_password=gKkeD7pKqo5rYoSPNmfU

LV:

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

RV:

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

This is their first poll among likely voters. The survey was conducted from Sept. 16-19.

She's doing as well or better with likely voters. Very interesting.

it is very weird to see, Red avatars are feeling orgasm with '922' LV(1000 RV) 'National' Poll
This poll has smaller value than one state Poll



 

[heatcharger]

it is very weird to see, Red avatars are feeling orgasm with '922' LV(1000 RV) 'National' Poll
This poll has smaller value than one state Poll

You should be court ordered to take a basic statistics class.

[Wiz in Wis]

it is very weird to see, Red avatars are feeling orgasm with '922' LV(1000 RV) 'National' Poll
This poll has smaller value than one state Poll

You should be court ordered to take a basic statistics class.

Yeah... this argument is like screaming "I have never taken stats 101"

[Devout Centrist]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-ahead-first-debate-n652141

https://www.scribd.com/document/324821200/16804-NBCWSJ-September-Poll-9-21-Release?secret_password=gKkeD7pKqo5rYoSPNmfU

LV:

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

RV:

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

This is their first poll among likely voters. The survey was conducted from Sept. 16-19.

She's doing as well or better with likely voters. Very interesting.

it is very weird to see, Red avatars are feeling orgasm with '922' LV(1000 RV) 'National' Poll
This poll has smaller value than one state Poll



 

I'm terrified on how badly our educational system has failed your knowledge of statistics.

[psychprofessor]

Wouldn't it be ironic if Clinton's win percentages in 2016 replicate Bill's win percentages in 1992?

[dspNY]

Some other numbers:

Non-Hispanic White: 71%
African-American: 12%
Hispanic: 10%
Asian: 2%
Other: 4%

Demographics look right for 2016

Obama job approval: 52/45
Clinton favorables: 37/52, 39% strong disapprove
Trump favorables: 28/61!!! 49% strong disapprove
Democrats: 37/43
Republicans: 29/48
Jill Stein: 9/17, with 25% neutral and 45% with no opinion
Gary Johnson: 14/19, with 29% neutral and 38% with no opinion
Bill Clinton: 45/38
Mike Pence: 26/25 with 21% neutral and 28% with no opinion
Vladimir Putin: 6/66, with 18% neutral and 10% with no opinion. 45% strong disapprove
Melania Trump: 20/28, with 44% neutral
Tim Kaine: 26/19, with 28% neutral and 27% with no opinion
The media: 19/59, with 20% neutral
Mexico: 38/26, with 35% neutral. Only 8% very negative
Canada is universally popular: 75/3!!!

A vote for Clinton: 50% vs. 44% voting for Clinton to stop Trump
A vote for Trump: 41% vs. 51% voting for Trump to stop Clinton

Only 52% of Trump voters on the 4 way ballot think Trump will be a good President
70% of Clinton voters on the 4-way ballot think Clinton will be a good President

Congressional ballot preference: Dems 48, GOP 45

31% of voters plan to vote early or have already voted

49% say the country needs major changes; 47% say stay the course (one of two good stats for Trump)

Immigration helps the country 54/35

Economy: Trump 46/41 (the other good stat for Trump)

Terrorism: Clinton 44/43

Immigration: Clinton 50/39

Improving the country: Clinton 44/38

Good commander in chief: Clinton 48/33

Trust with nukes: Clinton 51/25

Honesty: 41/31 Trump. 25% think both candidates are liars

Temperament: 56/23 Clinton

Knowledge and experience: 60/23 Clinton

58% have reservations or are extremely uncomfortable with Trump's lack of military or governmental experience

[Gass3268]

This poll jives with Clinton being up 9 in PA and NH and 5 in FL. Only Wisconsin looks off as of now when it comes to the good polls we've gotten.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This poll jives with Clinton being up 9 in PA and NH and 5 in FL. Only Wisconsin looks off as of now when it comes to the good polls we've gotten.

And Nevada, Iowa and Maine.

The polls aren't off, there is clearly different breaks going on with swing voters. (You're right)

[bilaps]

This poll jives with Clinton being up 9 in PA and NH and 5 in FL. Only Wisconsin looks off as of now when it comes to the good polls we've gotten.

Well, you said it. It coincides with GOOD polls you've got. Not really with others.

[MT Treasurer]

This poll jives with Clinton being up 9 in PA and NH and 5 in FL. Only Wisconsin looks off as of now when it comes to the good polls we've gotten.

And Nevada, Iowa and Maine.

The polls aren't off, there is clearly different breaks going on with swing voters. (You're right)

Agreed. This, plus Clintons leading by a lot in the blue states (CA, MD, MA, NY), while Trump is underperforming in red states like TX and GA.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Some other numbers:

Non-Hispanic White: 71%
African-American: 12%
Hispanic: 10%
Asian: 2%
Other: 4%

Demographics look right for 2016

snip

If anything, that looks a bit too Trump-friendly. No use unskewing though, probably canceled out by noise

[Likely Voter]

Some other numbers:

Non-Hispanic White: 71%
African-American: 12%
Hispanic: 10%
Asian: 2%
Other: 4%

Demographics look right for 2016

snip

If anything, that looks a bit too Trump-friendly. No use unskewing though, probably canceled out by noise

As noted in the upshot article thread about different pollsters using the same data, it is this mix (and subsets of this like non-college white vs college white mix) that is the biggest driving factor between different pollsters models. And it is all a big guess.  If the CNN LV model from their poll over Labor Day weekend proves right and the non-college whites come out in droves, Trump is probably going to win. If the election looks like 2012-ish, he is going to lose. The week to week stuff probably doesn't matter that much really.

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If you add up all the favorable ratings you only get to 88%. So if there were 0 overlap, 12% of voters don't like anyone. With overlap it is probably closer to 20%.  It is no surprise they say turnout will be down a bit.

[Seriously?]

Just in on MTP Daily: NBC/WSJ used the 2012 electorate as their LV screen

You had to have either voted in 2012 or 2014 to get past the LV screen. The result was a D+8 electorate, which is more than both Obama elections in 2008 and 2012.

That seems to be the methodological difference between the stack of polls that have it close vs. polls like the ABC and this one that do not.

Pew really doesn't count either way, it was taken over a month's period of time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow. That is genuinely good news.

[Maxwell]

Great honer!

the favorables look kinda low but I can accept that since they're low for both candidates - whatever "muh healthscare" thing must have been counter acted by birther nonsense. Beautiful!

[Simfan34]

Even if these are the sort of Trump favorables I'd like to see, the fact they're so low seems like a clear red flag suggesting the sample is excessively tilted against him.

Of course, one can only hope that that the numbers have actually turned against Trump.

[NOVA Green]

This poll jives with Clinton being up 9 in PA and NH and 5 in FL. Only Wisconsin looks off as of now when it comes to the good polls we've gotten.

And Nevada, Iowa and Maine.

The polls aren't off, there is clearly different breaks going on with swing voters. (You're right)

Agreed. This, plus Clintons leading by a lot in the blue states (CA, MD, MA, NY), while Trump is underperforming in red states like TX and GA.

Although this poll seems potentially slightly Clinton friendly from 1-3%, it does seem to fit with the notion that in heavily Democratic large states that you mentioned, that Clinton is seeing some consolidation from the Millennial/Bernie or Busters, in safe states where she has significant room to expand.

Swing states tend to have a smaller proportion of 3rd Party supporters in polling (Nevada likely excepted) so regardless of the LV screening model for this poll, it could well be the case that Clinton is leading by 3-4% nationally, while losing OH by 3-4%, NC by 2%, narrow lead in WI (2-3%), etc...

[Rand]

Liberal bias + shy Trump voters = Clinton lead. She is done--Trump 40+ states on Election Day.