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Author Topic: Fox: NV - Heck + 7 NC - Burr + 6 Portman + 14  (Read 910 times)
Kamala/Beto 2020
dfwlibertylover
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« on: September 21, 2016, 05:07:53 pm »

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/21/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-in-battlegrounds-nevada-n-carolina-ohio.html

Nevada:
Heck - 43
Cortez Masto - 36

North Carolina:
Burr - 43
Ross - 37

Ohio:
Portman - 51
Stickland - 37
« Last Edit: September 21, 2016, 05:10:24 pm by Representative dfwlibertylover »Logged
ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2016, 05:15:54 pm »

Does anyone agree with me that Nevada's Senate race is Lean R at this point?
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Can we have a real Christian conservative president instead of having our party go down the road of populism and nationalism, with strains of liberal-tarianism?  Let the loss of the House be a lesson that we need to return to the party of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Rick Santorum, and Bill Lee.  We need a bold and optimistic vision for this country that embraces Christian values!

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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 05:18:01 pm »

These polls are definitely R-friendly.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2016, 05:21:28 pm »

Lol
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2016, 05:22:07 pm »

Certainly disagrees with the consensus on NC. Interesting.
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2016, 05:26:25 pm »

Certainly disagrees with the consensus on NC. Interesting.
I agree that the NC numbers seem off, but when comparing the margins it still agrees with the consensus. McCrory underperformed Trump by 2, while Burr overperforms Trump by 1. I think that is about right, but I think McCrory is down by 3, Trump tied and Burr +1 is more like it.
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Endorsements:
AZ-SEN: Martha McSally
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Mike Braun
MI-SEN: John James
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
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OH-SEN: Jim Renacci
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TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
WV-SEN: Patrick Morrisey
FL-GOV: Ron DeSantis
OH-GOV: Mike DeWine
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott
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NH-GOV: Molly Kelly
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2016, 05:41:01 pm »

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2016, 05:59:20 pm »

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.

Heck is about as good a candidate they could have found, barring Sandoval entering and making it Safe R.
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 06:04:15 pm »

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.

Heck is about as good a candidate they could have found, barring Sandoval entering and making it Safe R.
Outside of Sandoval he is the only candidate who has any appeal in Clark County,  he is also helped by the fact that Cortez Masto, while not a bad candidate, is fairly anonymous
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2016, 06:08:24 pm »

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.

Heck is about as good a candidate they could have found, barring Sandoval entering and making it Safe R.
Outside of Sandoval he is the only candidate who has any appeal in Clark County,  he is also helped by the fact that Cortez Masto, while not a bad candidate, is fairly anonymous

Plus it's not like Democrats had many better options
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2016, 06:10:43 pm »

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.

Heck is about as good a candidate they could have found, barring Sandoval entering and making it Safe R.
Outside of Sandoval he is the only candidate who has any appeal in Clark County,  he is also helped by the fact that Cortez Masto, while not a bad candidate, is fairly anonymous

Plus it's not like Democrats had many better options
Ross Miller and Dina Titus were really the only two other heavy hitters they had
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2016, 06:18:16 pm »

Something interesting is happen in Nevada this election. I have a hard time believing that it is this pro-Republican.

Heck is about as good a candidate they could have found, barring Sandoval entering and making it Safe R.
Outside of Sandoval he is the only candidate who has any appeal in Clark County,  he is also helped by the fact that Cortez Masto, while not a bad candidate, is fairly anonymous

Plus it's not like Democrats had many better options
Ross Miller and Dina Titus were really the only two other heavy hitters they had
Cortez Masto also, while AG, was under fire for indicting then-LG Brian Krolicki, then dropping the indictment (which was purely partisan motivated) since he had done no wrongdoing. Ross lost the AG race in 2014, though the wave really hurt him. Titus also lost to Heck in 2010, and would not have been that much better. The Democratic bench in Nevada is pretty weak, for now.
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Endorsements:
AZ-SEN: Martha McSally
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Mike Braun
MI-SEN: John James
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
NV-SEN: Dean Heller
OH-SEN: Jim Renacci
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
WV-SEN: Patrick Morrisey
FL-GOV: Ron DeSantis
OH-GOV: Mike DeWine
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott
WI-GOV: Scott Walker
NH-GOV: Molly Kelly
NH-02: Annie Kuster
Xing
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 06:22:19 pm »

Sorry, these numbers aren't happening.
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Kamala/Beto 2020
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2016, 06:31:08 pm »

Sorry, these numbers aren't happening.
What the HECK are you talking about? hehe
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2016, 06:38:08 pm »

Sorry, these numbers aren't happening.
What the HECK are you talking about? hehe

That was a sick BURR right there...

Okay, I'll show myself to the door.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2016, 06:42:00 pm »

That was a sick BURR right there...

Okay, I'll show myself to the door.

Or maybe the port, man...

Oh well.
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2016, 06:43:19 pm »

This seems about right for Portman. Heck is probably up by 3 and so is burr overall though.
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2016, 06:48:18 pm »

The OH and NC numbers make sense given their presidential numbers. NV is a bit weird, but could be accurate.
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2016, 07:13:21 pm »

Seems pretty clear right now that all three are up, but none of them are up by those margins. With Burr and Portman it makes sense considering the lean of the year and their states and the campaigns that have been waged.

After the Angle/Reid race in 2010, I'm loathe to call anything for Nevada Republicans until the votes come in, but it seems pretty clear the lead Heck has is at least stronger than the lead Angle had; no poll after June had her up by more than 4. (If any of you don't recall, the final average had her up 3, and Reid won by 6, so if you think the error will be similar this is no proof that Heck is winning. In 2012, on the contrary, the final average had Heller up by 4 and he won by 1; in that case, on the other hand, only one poll, a rogue September PPP, had Berkley up during the entire calendar year 2012, though there were multiple ties).

At the moment, including this poll but weirdly not including the recent PPP, RCP has Heck up 3. If the error is similar to 2012, this race is an exact tie. If it is similar to 2010, then Masto is up 6, though that seems doubtful. (In the 2014-Gov race, on the other hand, the average had Sandoval up by 25 but he won by 47; if that repeats, Heck will win by 25 points Tongue). This is exactly what makes Nevada so damn frustrating.
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2016, 07:27:46 pm »

CCM is not a bad candidate at all, I guess her sin is not being a more high profile AG. She was elected statewide twice by decent margins and her name ID is pretty terrible.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2016, 08:11:43 pm »

wow Heck still can't get above 45% or so! Embarassing!

And it's amazing that Burr is doing WORSE than Heck.

Obviously Ohio is a lost cause but i mean jesus dems.
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2016, 09:51:59 pm »

Obvious outliers for both the Senate and Presidential numbers.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2016, 03:46:27 am »

wow Heck still can't get above 45% or so! Embarassing!

And it's amazing that Burr is doing WORSE than Heck.

Obviously Ohio is a lost cause but i mean jesus dems.
And Cortez-Masto that still can't get around 40% isn't a bit embarassing? Roll Eyes
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« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2016, 04:24:01 am »

I hope Cortez-Masto wins, Berkeley was unstated too and she lost due to scandal. But Heck isnt up by 7, it's still a margin of error race. Due to Latinos
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« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2016, 02:33:48 pm »

Democrats have a history of outperforming the polls in Nevada.  In 2004, most polls had Bush comfortably winning Nevada.  He barely won it.  In 2010, the polls almost all had Angle ahead of Reid by a few.  Reid won by 5.  In 2012, the polls all had Heller winning by a decent margin.  He barely squeaked by. 
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