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Author Topic: IL/WI-Emerson: Duckworth +2, Feingold +10  (Read 999 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: September 22, 2016, 12:30:10 am »

Illinois
41% Tammy Duckworth (D)
39% Mark Kirk (R, inc.)

Wisconsin
52% Russ Feingold (D)
42% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 12:33:25 am »

I mean, I could try and make sense out of these numbers, but it's not worth the effort. It's Emerson, throw it in the trash.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2016, 12:34:58 am »

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2016, 12:36:30 am »

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2016, 02:21:53 am »

Obama voters should come home for Duckworth. Kirk still hasn't lead in a single poll, having a mediocre candidate😂
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2016, 02:48:00 am »

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?

It's Wulfric. He'll believe anything other than reality.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2016, 05:47:15 am »

Both ate Likely D, nothing to see here.
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2016, 08:24:28 am »

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Emerson College on 2016-09-20

Summary: D: 52%, R: 42%, I: 3%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2016, 08:25:29 am »

New Poll: Illinois Senator by Emerson College on 2016-09-21

Summary: D: 41%, R: 39%, I: 11%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2016, 11:42:17 am »

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!
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Figueira
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2016, 12:10:24 pm »

Could someone remind me why we hate Emerson?
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2016, 12:39:48 pm »

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2016, 12:43:15 pm »

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?

Basically all the local conservative people on social media in the Milwaukee area. Oh, the polls are also biased and lying and Trump/Johnson are way ahead.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2016, 01:01:16 pm »

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?

Basically all the local conservative people on social media in the Milwaukee area. Oh, the polls are also biased and lying and Trump/Johnson are way ahead.

Not Charlie Sykes, lol
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2016, 01:01:47 pm »

Could someone remind me why we hate Emerson?

They are 100% landline.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2016, 01:06:09 pm »

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?

Basically all the local conservative people on social media in the Milwaukee area. Oh, the polls are also biased and lying and Trump/Johnson are way ahead.

Not Charlie Sykes, lol


True, guess I should have further clarified as regular citizens, not media.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2016, 01:09:12 pm »

wow Kirk only over-performs Trump by 4 in a garbage R-leaning poll! Sad!
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2016, 01:23:27 pm »

Could someone remind me why we hate Emerson?

They are 100% landline.

Ah, that's it. I knew there was a reason.
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2016, 02:31:26 pm »

Kirk has a history of outperforming the top of the Republican ticket.  He had no problem winning reelection in his old Northern Chicago suburbs district in 2006 and 2008.  I believe he will outperform Trump by a healthy margin, but it won't be enough in the end.  I believe he will come up short, but it won't be a landslide.  I would say he loses mid single digits. 
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Figueira
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2016, 09:34:07 pm »

Kirk has a history of outperforming the top of the Republican ticket.  He had no problem winning reelection in his old Northern Chicago suburbs district in 2006 and 2008.  I believe he will outperform Trump by a healthy margin, but it won't be enough in the end.  I believe he will come up short, but it won't be a landslide.  I would say he loses mid single digits. 

Sounds about right.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2016, 10:54:55 pm »

Those polls are obviously complete junk, but if their relative margins (Duckworth only 4 points behind Hillary and Feingold 3 points ahead of her) are accurate, that's great news.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2016, 04:32:44 pm »

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?
538 Unskewed this poll to +7 for clinton and +3 duckworth. that's plausible for senate.
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2016, 04:35:05 pm »

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?
538 Unskewed this poll to +7 for clinton and +3 duckworth. that's plausible for senate.

My point is that the Presidential numbers for Illinois don't look plausible, which means that the Senate numbers, even if they seem plausible, have to be thrown out as well. Kirk might be within striking distance of Duckworth, but we probably shouldn't be putting too much stock in this particular pollster.
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