IL/WI-Emerson: Duckworth +2, Feingold +10

[MT Treasurer]

Illinois
41% Tammy Duckworth (D)
39% Mark Kirk (R, inc.)

Wisconsin
52% Russ Feingold (D)
42% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)

[Xing]

I mean, I could try and make sense out of these numbers, but it's not worth the effort. It's Emerson, throw it in the trash.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

[Xing]

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama voters should come home for Duckworth. Kirk still hasn't lead in a single poll, having a mediocre candidate😂

[Ebsy]

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?

It's Wulfric. He'll believe anything other than reality.

[Gass3268]

Both ate Likely D, nothing to see here.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Emerson College on 2016-09-20

Summary: D: 52%, R: 42%, I: 3%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Illinois Senator by Emerson College on 2016-09-21

Summary: D: 41%, R: 39%, I: 11%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MasterJedi]

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

[Figueira]

Could someone remind me why we hate Emerson?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?

[MasterJedi]

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?

Basically all the local conservative people on social media in the Milwaukee area. Oh, the polls are also biased and lying and Trump/Johnson are way ahead.

[Gass3268]

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?

Basically all the local conservative people on social media in the Milwaukee area. Oh, the polls are also biased and lying and Trump/Johnson are way ahead.

Not Charlie Sykes, lol

[Gass3268]

Could someone remind me why we hate Emerson?

They are 100% landline.

[MasterJedi]

According to local conservatives Johnson has this "in the bag" and it "doesn't look good for Feingold". lol!

Do you mean local conservatives as in ordinary people or people in the WI conservative media?

Basically all the local conservative people on social media in the Milwaukee area. Oh, the polls are also biased and lying and Trump/Johnson are way ahead.

Not Charlie Sykes, lol

True, guess I should have further clarified as regular citizens, not media.

[Maxwell]

wow Kirk only over-performs Trump by 4 in a garbage R-leaning poll! Sad!

[Figueira]

Could someone remind me why we hate Emerson?

They are 100% landline.

Ah, that's it. I knew there was a reason.

[RRusso1982]

Kirk has a history of outperforming the top of the Republican ticket.  He had no problem winning reelection in his old Northern Chicago suburbs district in 2006 and 2008.  I believe he will outperform Trump by a healthy margin, but it won't be enough in the end.  I believe he will come up short, but it won't be a landslide.  I would say he loses mid single digits. 

[Figueira]

Kirk has a history of outperforming the top of the Republican ticket.  He had no problem winning reelection in his old Northern Chicago suburbs district in 2006 and 2008.  I believe he will outperform Trump by a healthy margin, but it won't be enough in the end.  I believe he will come up short, but it won't be a landslide.  I would say he loses mid single digits. 

Sounds about right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Those polls are obviously complete junk, but if their relative margins (Duckworth only 4 points behind Hillary and Feingold 3 points ahead of her) are accurate, that's great news.

[Young Conservative]

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?

538 Unskewed this poll to +7 for clinton and +3 duckworth. that's plausible for senate.

[Xing]

Illinois is really starting to look competitive. Lots of undecideds. Atlas told me that Duckworth was going to win big, but she's still stuck in the low 40s. If we get something with a Kirk lead, or maybe even a tie, I will move it toss-up.

So you believe that Hillary's only going to win Illinois by 6?

538 Unskewed this poll to +7 for clinton and +3 duckworth. that's plausible for senate.

My point is that the Presidential numbers for Illinois don't look plausible, which means that the Senate numbers, even if they seem plausible, have to be thrown out as well. Kirk might be within striking distance of Duckworth, but we probably shouldn't be putting too much stock in this particular pollster.