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  FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4  (Read 1782 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: September 22, 2016, 11:25:22 am »
« edited: September 22, 2016, 11:27:22 am by StatesPoll »

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_22_2016_final_tables.pdf

FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21)
Total 500 LV. (TRUMP 225 LV, Hillary 218 LV, Johnson 15 LV, Stein 6 LV)

TRUMP 45% | Hillary 43.6% | Johnson 3% | Stein 0.6%

Sampling: White 63.8% (319 LV) | Minorities 35.6% (178 LV)
(2012 it was White 67% | Minorities 33%)
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 11:25:59 am »
Ouch
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2016, 11:26:03 am »
Decimals!

Fits CV of tight race down there though.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2016, 11:27:26 am »
Interestingly, they have the non-white percent up from 2012 (35% vs 30%), but Trump is doing better than Romney (among non-whites). He's also winning young voters, and barely losing 45-65 year olds. it all seems wrong, though it probably cancels out.

Florida remains tight as a tick.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2016, 11:27:42 am »
Florida is definitely tight right now.
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Buzz
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2016, 11:35:18 am »
Great Poll!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am »
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2016, 11:37:28 am »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.

That doesn't mean their methodology was flawed. It just means they made incorrect assumptions about the trajectory of the race in the aftermath of the first debate.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2016, 11:38:25 am »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.

Wasn't that Mason Dixon?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2016, 11:42:15 am »
Quote from: Oh Hill Yes on September 22, 2016, 11:38:25 am
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.

Wasn't that Mason Dixon?

Both actually
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2016, 11:51:05 am »
Lack of ground game in all these states is going to kill Trump.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2016, 12:54:26 pm »
Florida is between +5 for Clinton and +1 for Trump right now. Advantage Clinton.
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oriass16
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm »
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012

Florida exit poll  shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample

I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The

difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents

by 3 points.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm »
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012

Florida exit poll  shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample

I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The

difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents

by 3 points.


Damnnit we have another one!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2016, 01:20:10 pm »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012

Florida exit poll  shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample

I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The

difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents

by 3 points.


Damnnit we have another one!

They're reproducing!
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Yank2133
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2016, 01:20:14 pm »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012

Florida exit poll  shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample

I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The

difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents

by 3 points.


Damnnit we have another one!

To be fair, the amount of new trolls isn't as bad as it was in 2012.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2016, 01:25:33 pm »
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012

Florida exit poll  shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample

I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The

difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents

by 3 points.


Adjusted as your Ratios

TRUMP:  DEM(35%)x11% + REP(33%)x82% + IND(33%)x46% = 46.09%
Hillary: DEM(35%)x84% + REP(33%)x7% + IND(33%)x32% = 42.27%
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oriass16
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« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2016, 01:33:21 pm »
Quote from: StatesPoll on September 22, 2016, 01:25:33 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012

Florida exit poll  shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample

I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The

difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents

by 3 points.


Adjusted as your Ratios

TRUMP:  DEM(35%)x11% + REP(33%)x82% + IND(33%)x46% = 46.09%
Hillary: DEM(35%)x84% + REP(33%)x7% + IND(33%)x32% = 42.27%



This is what I am talking about.thanks my friend
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2016, 01:43:15 pm »
Not buying it, CLINTON is keeping it close in NC & FL
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2016, 02:11:55 pm »
Quote from: Da-Jon on September 22, 2016, 01:43:15 pm
Not buying it, CLINTON is keeping it close in NC & FL

So you do buy this poll then...

Hopefully this isn't the beginning of respectable/semi-respectable pollsters publishing their numbers in decimals.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2016, 03:31:39 pm »
Nobody questions that Florida is close, and will likely remain close and contested all the way up to ED.

I'll still take the A+ Monmouth over a B+ Uni poll in one of the hardest states to poll in the union.

#AngryPuertoRicans   Wink
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Jesus save us
NJR
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« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2016, 11:13:54 pm »
Florida screwed us in 2000 I guess it makes sense that they choose too screw us now as well.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2016, 11:16:12 pm »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012

Florida exit poll  shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample

I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The

difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents

by 3 points.


Damnnit we have another one!

It's probably statespoll using another account lol
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2016, 11:17:35 pm »
Quote from: Orange is the new fascism on September 22, 2016, 11:13:54 pm
Florida screwed us in 2000 I guess it makes sense that they choose too screw us now as well.
Well, we're hardly screwed if it's just FL flipping... now, a freiwal state, we'd be worried about.
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