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2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
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FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
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Topic: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4 (Read 1555 times)
StatesPoll
Sr. Member
Posts: 444
FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
on:
September 22, 2016, 11:25:22 am »
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_22_2016_final_tables.pdf
FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21)
Total 500 LV. (TRUMP 225 LV, Hillary 218 LV, Johnson 15 LV, Stein 6 LV)
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 43.6% | Johnson 3% | Stein 0.6%
Sampling: White 63.8% (319 LV) | Minorities 35.6% (178 LV)
(2012 it was White 67% | Minorities 33%)
«
Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 11:27:22 am by StatesPoll
»
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
Posts: 20,479
Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #1 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:25:59 am »
Ouch
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#FreeGreedoToday
#SherrodBrown2020
https://tengaged.com/user/JasonEldridge
2019 GOV Ratings:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1bGAG7xF6fQTpNuyp5rJDDve4xGRuJM6WsXouSStfKNE
2020 House Rating - Toss-Up
KingSweden
YaBB God
Posts: 11,327
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #2 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:26:03 am »
Decimals!
Fits CV of tight race down there though.
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For England, James?
No. For me.
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
Posts: 2,508
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #3 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:27:26 am »
Interestingly, they have the non-white percent up from 2012 (35% vs 30%), but Trump is doing better than Romney (among non-whites). He's also winning young voters, and barely losing 45-65 year olds. it all seems wrong, though it probably cancels out.
Florida remains tight as a tick.
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Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
Posts: 15,203
Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #4 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:27:42 am »
Florida is definitely tight right now.
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Buzz
Jr. Member
Posts: 95
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #5 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:35:18 am »
Great Poll!
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Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
Posts: 40,644
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #6 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am »
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.
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f
uck nazis
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
Posts: 20,479
Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #7 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:37:28 am »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.
That doesn't mean their methodology was flawed. It just means they made incorrect assumptions about the trajectory of the race in the aftermath of the first debate.
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#FreeGreedoToday
#SherrodBrown2020
https://tengaged.com/user/JasonEldridge
2019 GOV Ratings:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1bGAG7xF6fQTpNuyp5rJDDve4xGRuJM6WsXouSStfKNE
2020 House Rating - Toss-Up
Elizabeth Warren 2020
ShadowOfTheWave
YaBB God
Posts: 6,162
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #8 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:38:25 am »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.
Wasn't that Mason Dixon?
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Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
Posts: 2,508
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #9 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:42:15 am »
Quote from: Oh Hill Yes on September 22, 2016, 11:38:25 am
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on September 22, 2016, 11:36:06 am
Good to see further confirmation that Clinton is leading here. Remember Suffolk stopped polling Florida in 2012 because it was supposedly safe for Romney.
Wasn't that Mason Dixon?
Both actually
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MasterJedi
YaBB God
Posts: 21,086
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #10 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:51:05 am »
Lack of ground game in all these states is going to kill Trump.
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Gass3268
YaBB God
Posts: 18,571
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #11 on:
September 22, 2016, 12:54:26 pm »
Florida is between +5 for Clinton and +1 for Trump right now. Advantage Clinton.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:
1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Buttigieg
4. Sanders
5. Klobuchar
6. Gillibrand
7. Castro
8. Booker
9. Delaney
10. Gabbard
oriass16
Rookie
Posts: 22
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #12 on:
September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm »
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012
Florida exit poll shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample
I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The
difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents
by 3 points.
Logged
Gass3268
YaBB God
Posts: 18,571
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #13 on:
September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm »
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012
Florida exit poll shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample
I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The
difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents
by 3 points.
Damnnit we have another one!
Logged
Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:
1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Buttigieg
4. Sanders
5. Klobuchar
6. Gillibrand
7. Castro
8. Booker
9. Delaney
10. Gabbard
KingSweden
YaBB God
Posts: 11,327
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #14 on:
September 22, 2016, 01:20:10 pm »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012
Florida exit poll shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample
I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The
difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents
by 3 points.
Damnnit we have another one!
They're reproducing!
Logged
For England, James?
No. For me.
Yank2133
YaBB God
Posts: 4,883
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #15 on:
September 22, 2016, 01:20:14 pm »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012
Florida exit poll shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample
I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The
difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents
by 3 points.
Damnnit we have another one!
To be fair, the amount of new trolls isn't as bad as it was in 2012.
Logged
StatesPoll
Sr. Member
Posts: 444
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #16 on:
September 22, 2016, 01:25:33 pm »
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012
Florida exit poll shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample
I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The
difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents
by 3 points.
Adjusted as your Ratios
TRUMP: DEM(35%)x11% + REP(33%)x82% + IND(33%)x46% = 46.09%
Hillary: DEM(35%)x84% + REP(33%)x7% + IND(33%)x32% = 42.27%
Logged
oriass16
Rookie
Posts: 22
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #17 on:
September 22, 2016, 01:33:21 pm »
Quote from: StatesPoll on September 22, 2016, 01:25:33 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012
Florida exit poll shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample
I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The
difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents
by 3 points.
Adjusted as your Ratios
TRUMP: DEM(35%)x11% + REP(33%)x82% + IND(33%)x46% = 46.09%
Hillary: DEM(35%)x84% + REP(33%)x7% + IND(33%)x32% = 42.27%
This is what I am talking about.thanks my friend
Logged
olowakandi
olawakandi
YaBB God
Posts: 23,090
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #18 on:
September 22, 2016, 01:43:15 pm »
Not buying it, CLINTON is keeping it close in NC & FL
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
Posts: 12,363
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #19 on:
September 22, 2016, 02:11:55 pm »
Quote from: Da-Jon on September 22, 2016, 01:43:15 pm
Not buying it, CLINTON is keeping it close in NC & FL
So you do buy this poll then...
Hopefully this isn't the beginning of respectable/semi-respectable pollsters publishing their numbers in decimals.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
Posts: 4,475
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #20 on:
September 22, 2016, 03:31:39 pm »
Nobody questions that Florida is close, and will likely remain close and contested all the way up to ED.
I'll still take the A+ Monmouth over a B+ Uni poll in one of the hardest states to poll in the union.
#AngryPuertoRicans
Logged
Jesus save us
NJR
Jr. Member
Posts: 69
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #21 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:13:54 pm »
Florida screwed us in 2000 I guess it makes sense that they choose too screw us now as well.
Logged
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
YaBB God
Posts: 2,388
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #22 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:16:12 pm »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on September 22, 2016, 01:19:05 pm
Quote from: oriass16 on September 22, 2016, 01:14:33 pm
This poll is leaning D cause of parties affiliations in this poll, 39% D, 36% R and 23% I, while in 2012
Florida exit poll shows the parties affiliations 35% D, 33% R and 33 I.In this poll they did under sample
I.If we use 2012 data in this poll we will come up with a result like 46% Trump vs 42 % Clinton.The
difference here independents went by 14 % margin for Trump while in 2012 Obama won independents
by 3 points.
Damnnit we have another one!
It's probably statespoll using another account lol
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
Posts: 1,899
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87
Re: FL-Suffolk(9/19-9/21): TRUMP +1.4
«
Reply #23 on:
September 22, 2016, 11:17:35 pm »
Quote from: Orange is the new fascism on September 22, 2016, 11:13:54 pm
Florida screwed us in 2000 I guess it makes sense that they choose too screw us now as well.
Well, we're hardly screwed if it's just FL flipping... now, a freiwal state, we'd be worried about.
Logged
What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
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