Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

[NOVA Green]

Clinton-42
Trump-32
Johnson- 9
Stein- 2

"When the poll considered only likely voters, Clinton's lead slipped to 9 percentage points. In the survey's pool of extremely likely voters, though, the race is firmly within the margin of error, with Clinton at 43 percent and Trump at 39 percent."



http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Clinton-leads-Trump-by-10-in-Harris-County-poll-9239737.php?cmpid=twitter-desktop

[Person Man]

Looks like if Hillary loses and Texas keeps tightening..that the next Democratic President have a great shot at Texas.

[Xing]

Naturally, these large D trends will observe the boundaries of Safe D/R states, since Trump will win the lottery and most swing states will magically trend R, allowing him to win while losing the PV by several points.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Naturally, these large D trends will observe the boundaries of Safe D/R states, since Trump will win the lottery and most swing states will magically trend R, allowing him to win while losing the PV by several points.

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/going_out_on_a_limb_romney_beats_obama_handily

[Person Man]

Naturally, these large D trends will observe the boundaries of Safe D/R states, since Trump will win the lottery and most swing states will magically trend R, allowing him to win while losing the PV by several points.

How will he govern/rule?

[NOVA Green]

These numbers help confirm multiple recent polls showing Texas much tighter than most of us and pundits would have imagined.

Additionally, the state is under court order to notify voters that the stringent voter ID requirements no longer apply.

Although Texas is not anything close to a tossup state, these are the types of margins that Dems need from Harris county, combined with increased support in the Houston suburbs (As well as the other metro areas) to make this state more competitive not only in Presidential elections, but in statewide elections as well.

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

[dspNY]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

No wonder Clinton is opening offices down there and Kaine is making a visit

[Liberalrocks]

She has a strong shot at flipping Fort Bend County neighboring Harris.

[angus]

Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

I just looked up its population.  4.3 million!  That must be the most populous county in Texas, maybe one of the most populous in the United States. 

If we assume that 2.2 million of them are voting, then that's 924000 for Clinton, 704000 for Trump.  220 thousand-vote lead in Harris County alone.  Fairly significant.

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

No wonder Clinton is opening offices down there and Kaine is making a visit

Assuming you are joking....

Too many other fires to fight right now for Team Clinton, considering that despite a massive overwhelming airwar in swing states that Trump is on the verge of cracking "The Firewall".

Only reason for a Dem to go to Texas at this point, is for campaign donations, considering there aren't any downballots that could be aided. Clinton hasn't even been to MO, where the Dems have an outside shot of picking up a Senate seat....

[dspNY]

Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

I just looked up its population.  4.3 million!  That must be the most populous county in Texas, maybe one of the most populous in the United States. 

If we assume that 2.2 million of them are voting, then that's 924000 for Clinton, 704000 for Trump.  220 thousand-vote lead in Harris County alone.  Fairly significant.

Turnout in Harris County was only 1.2 million in the last 2 presidential elections so there's no way you're seeing 2.2 million votes out of there...Maybe 1.4 million if there is a big turnout

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

I know, but Trump is an absolutely terrible fit for TX. It's as if the Democrats were running Zell Miller in California. Doesn't mean TX will be competitive now.

Absolutely agreed....

Now the problem with "Trumpism" is that he risking completely unraveling all of the lessons that the Republican Party learned after Cali and Prop 189 back in the early '90s.

The Texas and Tejas Republican Party learned that lesson, and I took a shot with my wife during that Republican debate when Rick Perry stood up for Texas values, and defended a multicultural Texas against the haters.

Trump is the engineer running the train off the rails, and could likely single-handily turning Texas from the deepest Republican large state towards a tossup state, and creating a California 2.0 for decades.

[CatoMinor]

Clinton will win Harris but I will eat my own hat if she wins by +10 or more

[NOVA Green]

She has a strong shot at flipping Fort Bend County neighboring Harris.

That's also part of the key, as I posted on other Texas related polling threads awhile back. Flipping Fort Bend won't add a ton of votes on the margin, but is significant as the largest center of Asian-American voters in the state (Sugarland), as well as demographic growth in places like Pearland, and combined with a dramatic increase in total Dem margins in Harris starts to tilt the board in this Metro Area.

The key is Montgomery County.... wealthy White educated voters living in The Woodlands, and frequently transplants from Northern States.... This county typically goes 80% Republican and there is a huge bank of votes in this suburban county.... The Texas state polling numbers appear to show the state in high single digits for Trump, and defection of Anglo Republican suburban voters in the Houston, DFW, Austin, and SA metro areas are likely a major reason for these decreased margins.

[NOVA Green]

Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

I just looked up its population.  4.3 million!  That must be the most populous county in Texas, maybe one of the most populous in the United States. 

If we assume that 2.2 million of them are voting, then that's 924000 for Clinton, 704000 for Trump.  220 thousand-vote lead in Harris County alone.  Fairly significant.

3rd most populous county in the entire country.

Metro Houston is the 5th largest Metro area in the country and the fastest growing...

Lived out there until just recently, it is a massively sprawling and extremely diverse part of the country, and although Anglos are a minority within Harris County and a relatively small majority in Metro, this is a state with extremely low voter turnout.

Anglos and African-Americans vote at relatively high numbers, and Latino have a much lower voter turnout and registration rate.

Additionally, working-class Latinos in Texas typically vote 80/20 Democrat, but with extremely small turnout levels, and Middle-Class Latinos vote more like 55/45 Democrat in a Presidential election, and much more Republican at the statewide level, and represent a disproportionate share of the Latino vote.

Your estimated voter turnout and registration is way off, but yeah bottom line Harris County could well be more like a Philly or Cleveland type city where Democrats could create a 200k plurality that will go a long way towards making the state competitive.

[NOVA Green]

Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

I just looked up its population.  4.3 million!  That must be the most populous county in Texas, maybe one of the most populous in the United States. 

If we assume that 2.2 million of them are voting, then that's 924000 for Clinton, 704000 for Trump.  220 thousand-vote lead in Harris County alone.  Fairly significant.

Turnout in Harris County was only 1.2 million in the last 2 presidential elections so there's no way you're seeing 2.2 million votes out of there...Maybe 1.4 million if there is a big turnout

Truth.... if elections were more competitive turnout would be higher throughout the state, as well as Harris County.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

If the GOP can't win Texas by more than 10 this year they probably won't be able to for a long time.

[Gass3268]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

No wonder Clinton is opening offices down there and Kaine is making a visit

Assuming you are joking....

Too many other fires to fight right now for Team Clinton, considering that despite a massive overwhelming airwar in swing states that Trump is on the verge of cracking "The Firewall".

Only reason for a Dem to go to Texas at this point, is for campaign donations, considering there aren't any downballots that could be aided. Clinton hasn't even been to MO, where the Dems have an outside shot of picking up a Senate seat....

Team Clinton actually just opened up an office in El Paso (joining Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio) and Kaine did an event today in Houston

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

No wonder Clinton is opening offices down there and Kaine is making a visit

Assuming you are joking....

Too many other fires to fight right now for Team Clinton, considering that despite a massive overwhelming airwar in swing states that Trump is on the verge of cracking "The Firewall".

Only reason for a Dem to go to Texas at this point, is for campaign donations, considering there aren't any downballots that could be aided. Clinton hasn't even been to MO, where the Dems have an outside shot of picking up a Senate seat....

Team Clinton actually just opened up an office in El Paso (joining Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio) and Kaine did an event today in Houston

Awesome!!!

Doesn't look like they are making a play for Texas for obvious reasons, but rather are trying to build a future coalition in the great state of Texas.

I have been hoping for awhile that the national campaign would throw a few dollars into Texas to expand voter registration, turnout, and enthusiasm, and apparently the campaign is following that course.

Meanwhile here's an old man song from a native son of Texas that is 100% non-partisan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvu4nKdLWX8

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Looks like if Hillary loses and Texas keeps tightening..that the next Democratic President have a great shot at Texas.

Trump is a perfect storm of awful for Texas.  The state is going purple, but not fast enough go for a Democrat to win anytime soon.  A state that's 30% New Mexico and 70% Alabama is still safe R.

[DrScholl]

That could cause issues for some of the Republicans in swing districts in the state house. I know there are at least a couple of them there.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

If the GOP can't win Texas by more than 10 this year they probably won't be able to for a long time.

Nonsense.

At the least I say they won't get above a 15 point win. I can't see the GOP winning Texas by more then 20 anymore. Especially if their Hispanic numbers stay low like they are currently. It's not just the white women that are angry.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like if Hillary loses and Texas keeps tightening..that the next Democratic President have a great shot at Texas.

Trump is a perfect storm of awful for Texas.  The state is going purple, but not fast enough go for a Democrat to win anytime soon.  A state that's 30% New Mexico and 70% Alabama is still safe R.

Not sure I totally agree with the NM/AL breakdown.

Reality is that Texas is actually more like 5 or 6 states smashed together, with extreme variations between the different regions, but combined with a "founding myth/narrative".

I didn't realize until I lived in Texas how powerful the foundation myth of Texas is, from the educational structure that talks about Sam Houston and his history fighting against discrimination against Native Peoples, opposition to the war of succession against the North, and the embracing of the Tejano culture as part of the foundation myth of Texas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXqSa1gRdb4

[Skye]

Not really surprising. Trump is such a terrible fit for Houston.