Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

[NOVA Green]

Clinton-42
Trump-32
Johnson- 9
Stein- 2

"When the poll considered only likely voters, Clinton's lead slipped to 9 percentage points. In the survey's pool of extremely likely voters, though, the race is firmly within the margin of error, with Clinton at 43 percent and Trump at 39 percent."



http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Clinton-leads-Trump-by-10-in-Harris-County-poll-9239737.php?cmpid=twitter-desktop

[NOVA Green]

These numbers help confirm multiple recent polls showing Texas much tighter than most of us and pundits would have imagined.

Additionally, the state is under court order to notify voters that the stringent voter ID requirements no longer apply.

Although Texas is not anything close to a tossup state, these are the types of margins that Dems need from Harris county, combined with increased support in the Houston suburbs (As well as the other metro areas) to make this state more competitive not only in Presidential elections, but in statewide elections as well.

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

No wonder Clinton is opening offices down there and Kaine is making a visit

Assuming you are joking....

Too many other fires to fight right now for Team Clinton, considering that despite a massive overwhelming airwar in swing states that Trump is on the verge of cracking "The Firewall".

Only reason for a Dem to go to Texas at this point, is for campaign donations, considering there aren't any downballots that could be aided. Clinton hasn't even been to MO, where the Dems have an outside shot of picking up a Senate seat....

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

I know, but Trump is an absolutely terrible fit for TX. It's as if the Democrats were running Zell Miller in California. Doesn't mean TX will be competitive now.

Absolutely agreed....

Now the problem with "Trumpism" is that he risking completely unraveling all of the lessons that the Republican Party learned after Cali and Prop 189 back in the early '90s.

The Texas and Tejas Republican Party learned that lesson, and I took a shot with my wife during that Republican debate when Rick Perry stood up for Texas values, and defended a multicultural Texas against the haters.

Trump is the engineer running the train off the rails, and could likely single-handily turning Texas from the deepest Republican large state towards a tossup state, and creating a California 2.0 for decades.

[NOVA Green]

She has a strong shot at flipping Fort Bend County neighboring Harris.

That's also part of the key, as I posted on other Texas related polling threads awhile back. Flipping Fort Bend won't add a ton of votes on the margin, but is significant as the largest center of Asian-American voters in the state (Sugarland), as well as demographic growth in places like Pearland, and combined with a dramatic increase in total Dem margins in Harris starts to tilt the board in this Metro Area.

The key is Montgomery County.... wealthy White educated voters living in The Woodlands, and frequently transplants from Northern States.... This county typically goes 80% Republican and there is a huge bank of votes in this suburban county.... The Texas state polling numbers appear to show the state in high single digits for Trump, and defection of Anglo Republican suburban voters in the Houston, DFW, Austin, and SA metro areas are likely a major reason for these decreased margins.

[NOVA Green]

Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

I just looked up its population.  4.3 million!  That must be the most populous county in Texas, maybe one of the most populous in the United States. 

If we assume that 2.2 million of them are voting, then that's 924000 for Clinton, 704000 for Trump.  220 thousand-vote lead in Harris County alone.  Fairly significant.

3rd most populous county in the entire country.

Metro Houston is the 5th largest Metro area in the country and the fastest growing...

Lived out there until just recently, it is a massively sprawling and extremely diverse part of the country, and although Anglos are a minority within Harris County and a relatively small majority in Metro, this is a state with extremely low voter turnout.

Anglos and African-Americans vote at relatively high numbers, and Latino have a much lower voter turnout and registration rate.

Additionally, working-class Latinos in Texas typically vote 80/20 Democrat, but with extremely small turnout levels, and Middle-Class Latinos vote more like 55/45 Democrat in a Presidential election, and much more Republican at the statewide level, and represent a disproportionate share of the Latino vote.

Your estimated voter turnout and registration is way off, but yeah bottom line Harris County could well be more like a Philly or Cleveland type city where Democrats could create a 200k plurality that will go a long way towards making the state competitive.

[NOVA Green]

Harris County Texas (Houston Chronicle) Clinton +10

I just looked up its population.  4.3 million!  That must be the most populous county in Texas, maybe one of the most populous in the United States. 

If we assume that 2.2 million of them are voting, then that's 924000 for Clinton, 704000 for Trump.  220 thousand-vote lead in Harris County alone.  Fairly significant.

Turnout in Harris County was only 1.2 million in the last 2 presidential elections so there's no way you're seeing 2.2 million votes out of there...Maybe 1.4 million if there is a big turnout

Truth.... if elections were more competitive turnout would be higher throughout the state, as well as Harris County.

[NOVA Green]

Not surprising.

It is actually unprecedented (At least since 1964) to see a Democrat likely winning Harris by 10 points.

#AngryMexicanAmericans

No wonder Clinton is opening offices down there and Kaine is making a visit

Assuming you are joking....

Too many other fires to fight right now for Team Clinton, considering that despite a massive overwhelming airwar in swing states that Trump is on the verge of cracking "The Firewall".

Only reason for a Dem to go to Texas at this point, is for campaign donations, considering there aren't any downballots that could be aided. Clinton hasn't even been to MO, where the Dems have an outside shot of picking up a Senate seat....

Team Clinton actually just opened up an office in El Paso (joining Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio) and Kaine did an event today in Houston

Awesome!!!

Doesn't look like they are making a play for Texas for obvious reasons, but rather are trying to build a future coalition in the great state of Texas.

I have been hoping for awhile that the national campaign would throw a few dollars into Texas to expand voter registration, turnout, and enthusiasm, and apparently the campaign is following that course.

Meanwhile here's an old man song from a native son of Texas that is 100% non-partisan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvu4nKdLWX8

[NOVA Green]

Looks like if Hillary loses and Texas keeps tightening..that the next Democratic President have a great shot at Texas.

Trump is a perfect storm of awful for Texas.  The state is going purple, but not fast enough go for a Democrat to win anytime soon.  A state that's 30% New Mexico and 70% Alabama is still safe R.

Not sure I totally agree with the NM/AL breakdown.

Reality is that Texas is actually more like 5 or 6 states smashed together, with extreme variations between the different regions, but combined with a "founding myth/narrative".

I didn't realize until I lived in Texas how powerful the foundation myth of Texas is, from the educational structure that talks about Sam Houston and his history fighting against discrimination against Native Peoples, opposition to the war of succession against the North, and the embracing of the Tejano culture as part of the foundation myth of Texas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXqSa1gRdb4

[NOVA Green]

Turnout in Harris County was only 1.2 million in the last 2 presidential elections

That's awfully low.  Lower than I'd have guessed.  It's only 28% of the population.  I looked it up, in 2008 and 2012, 1.171 and 1.185 million voters voted, respectively.  The actual number of registered voters in Harris County is 2062792, which is about 49% of the county population.

For comparison, I looked up lancaster county.  There are 323799 registered voters as of September 19.  The current estimated county population is about 536624.  That means that just over 60% of the population is registered to vote.  I had assumed Harris would be lower, but I had no idea what the actual numbers were for either county before I looked them up today. 

Just for fun, here is the breakdown of registered voters for Lancaster County as of September 19:

Republican 168739
Democrat 104587
Other 50743
Total 323799

It's interesting to note the changes from Democrat to Republican in 2016 alone:  4570
and from Republican to Democrat in 2016 alone:  3943

I assume that such large numbers were due to the wild primaries this year.  Normally, by the time it gets to PA it's a fait accompli, uninteresting and pre-decided, but this year neither the Democrats nor the Republicans had it settled by April. 

I couldn't find a breakdown of registration by party for Harris County.  Maybe they don't do it that way in Texas.  You can look up voter registration by precinct in Harris county, but it seems tedious and all you get is name, address, and the last time that person voted, but not a political party.  Also, it says this in ALL CAPS on the Harris County website where you can look stuff up:  "IT IS A CRIMINAL OFFENSE TO USE VOTER REGISTRATION INFORMATION IN CONNECTION WITH ADVERTISING OR PROMOTING COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS OR SERVICES."

Both increased voter registration and turnout are key to future Democratic Party success in Texas in general, with Harris County being a lynchpin of any strategy to making Texas competitive again in both Federal and Statewide races.

Unfortunately, the resources required would cost a ton of money, in a state where the Democratic Party has virtually ceased to exist as a statewide party, and no outside organizations have ponied up the money in pursuit of those two endeavors.

What is fascinating, is that despite extreme lack of resources, that Harris County is looking to be on track for the highest performance for a Democratic candidate since at least 1964 (Haven't yet been able to look at the '64 margins).

That being said, Harris County is key to any major improvement in Democratic Party performance in Texas.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mapping-the-changing-face-of-the-lone-star-state/

[NOVA Green]

Everything costs money, but with 4.3 million people concentrated in less than 1800 square miles, one need only rely on one communications media market buyout to reach a huge audience.  For either the GOP or the Democrats, reaching the voters of Harris County should be a priority.  It represents about 17% of the state population, and it votes in appallingly low numbers.  Clearly, voters--and there are many potential voters there--need some motivation.  It would seem to me to be an obvious place to put some of the millions of dollars that campaigns typically raise.  I looked into it today, and it seems that both parties ignore the media market there, and neither have much of a ground game there.  I'm very much against identity politicking because I think division is bad for everyone in the long run, as we have seen in South Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, etc., etc., so I'm not going to argue about this ethnic group or that being easily led one faction or another, and I appreciate the fact that you (for the most part) haven't been pushing that sort of stuff either.  People are people, but the people of Harris County are not fully exploiting the democratic system.  Given that they are 17% of the 2nd-largest pot of electoral votes, it strikes me as odd that both parties ignore that media market.  Part of that, of course, is an artifact of our bizarre system of electing presidents.  Texas for about a hundred years was a guaranteed Democrat bastion, and then, for about 30 years, was a guaranteed Republican bastion.  It shouldn't be like that.  Such a large county in such a large state ought to be one of the places where elections are fought out, for better or worse.

Angus--- your post hurt my eyes because you didn't breakup sentences and paragraphs into a more readable format.

But yes--- you are absolutely right that the largest metro area in the second largest state (And one of the largest cities and metro areas in the US) has been ignored for decades by both political parties is a national disgrace.

Houston is the 4th largest city in the United States (2.3 Million) and the 5th largest and fastest growing Metro area in the US (6.7 Million).

Texas in recent years has become such a one-party state that voter registration and turnout levels, which were already horrible compared to most other states, has fallen even lower.

As I stated earlier, it will require a significant investment in resources, combined with better messaging, improved candidate selection, etc before Democrats will be able to make the state truly competitive.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like if Hillary loses and Texas keeps tightening..that the next Democratic President have a great shot at Texas.

Trump is a perfect storm of awful for Texas.  The state is going purple, but not fast enough go for a Democrat to win anytime soon.  A state that's 30% New Mexico and 70% Alabama is still safe R.

Not sure I totally agree with the NM/AL breakdown.

Reality is that Texas is actually more like 5 or 6 states smashed together, with extreme variations between the different regions, but combined with a "founding myth/narrative".

I didn't realize until I lived in Texas how powerful the foundation myth of Texas is, from the educational structure that talks about Sam Houston and his history fighting against discrimination against Native Peoples, opposition to the war of succession against the North, and the embracing of the Tejano culture as part of the foundation myth of Texas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXqSa1gRdb4

I think the best way to think of it is Texas is what you get if California went to church weekly.  And the Silicon Valley of Texas is substantially smaller while its Bakersfield is substantially larger.

Skills & Chance----

You made me laugh again, but only because you spoke some fundamental truths within that pithy phrase...

Now within that, you are leaving DFW out of the mix, as well as El Paso, but it does seem to match the Houston/ EastTex mixed with some of the Austin/SA regions of the state.

[NOVA Green]

Context: Obama defeated Romney here 49.4 to 49.3 while Ted Cruz won the county narrowly. This is not the sort of place Republicans should be losing badly.

Frankly, Clinton being up by this much here makes me think Dallas Co will be stronger, Tarrant will be within single-digits... it pretty much speaks to a mid-single digit lead for Trumplestiltskin (5-7)

This reminds me of an article that I read when I first moved to Texas, and naturally my first instinct was to buy a subscription to Texas Monthly, which is the best magazine focused on everything Texas, including politics, statewide issues, cultural/entertainment/food, and many other items...

http://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/the-cities-issue/

Texas is now fundamentally an overwhelmingly an urban and suburban state, despite the "foundation myths" and history that still exemplified Texas exceptionalism, that is now inclusive of the contribution of Tejanos and African-Americans, that goes way back to the days when a founding father Sam Houston was stumping the state to encourage Texas to vote against succession and support for the Confederacy during the Civil War.

Although, I don't believe that Tarrant will flip this cycle, it will be much closer than usual, along with dramatic decrease in Republican margins in the suburbs of Houston and elsewhere.

Fort Bend County will flip this year.... it has been a county on the line for awhile, and Asian-Americans (Heavily Vietnamese-Americans) will trend towards Clinton, at the same time as upper-middle class suburban voters in Sugarland move away from extreme Republican margins.

Same patterns in Montgomery County (The Woodlands/Conroe), and you take this same pattern and move it into the burbs of DFW, Round Rock (Wealthy Anglo Austin Exurbs), and then take it 70 miles down the highway into S.A (San Antonio for those that haven't spent time in Texas), and this state will likely trend much more Dem than most on this forum suspect.

WestTex actually had one of the biggest swings towards Obama between '08 and '12, and something tells me that both overall turnout and margins will be higher this year in both WestTex and SouthTex with Trump at the top of the ticket...