AP/GfK National: Clinton +6/+6 (and at 50 in the 2-way)

[dspNY]

Clinton 50
Trump 44

Clinton 45
Trump 39
Johnson 9
Stein 2

Poll taken September 15-19

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/September-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline-Clinton.pdf

[KingSweden]

Is this actually the AP?

[Fusionmunster]

Shes recovering nationally, hopefully the state polls follow suit.

[Fusionmunster]

Is this actually the AP?

I believe so.

[Gass3268]

What a nice poll!

[heatcharger]

Perhaps Trump's LV advantage has evaporated already.

[NOVA Green]

Leading indicators???

We'll need to see if lagging indicators follow suit, considering the state numbers have been mixed for Clinton over the past few days.

[Fusionmunster]

B+ on 538 if anyone's wondering.

[dspNY]

Perhaps Trump's LV advantage has evaporated already.

We're seeing a series of polls showing Clinton with a mid-single digit national lead

NBC/WSJ: Clinton +7/+6
iCitizen: Clinton +5
Pew: Clinton +7
AP/GfK: Clinton +6

The state polls have no choice but to follow next week. Then comes the first debate reaction, however that goes

[Xing]

If Hillary actually wins by 6, she'll get more than 272 EV. I'm very confident about that.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Perhaps Trump's LV advantage has evaporated already.

We're seeing a series of polls showing Clinton with a mid-single digit national lead

NBC/WSJ: Clinton +7/+6
iCitizen: Clinton +5
Pew: Clinton +7
AP/GfK: Clinton +6

The state polls have no choice but to follow next week. Then comes the first debate reaction, however that goes

Rasmussen did have that Trump +5 though. I know they are R biased, but still, it throws a bit of a wrench into the state poll rally. Plus, with the debate coming up, all this might not matter too much.

[Fusionmunster]

Perhaps Trump's LV advantage has evaporated already.

We're seeing a series of polls showing Clinton with a mid-single digit national lead

NBC/WSJ: Clinton +7/+6
iCitizen: Clinton +5
Pew: Clinton +7
AP/GfK: Clinton +6

The state polls have no choice but to follow next week. Then comes the first debate reaction, however that goes

Rasmussen did have that Trump +5 though. I know they are R biased, but still, it throws a bit of a wrench into the state poll rally. Plus, with the debate coming up, all this might not matter too much.

Rasmussen has been so off base the cycle though that Im tempted to just right them off.

[Yank2133]

If Hillary actually wins by 6, she'll get more than 272 EV. I'm very confident about that.

Agreed.

If her lead this big nationally then she has to be winning in FL and NC IMO.

[Lief 🗽]

BEAUTIFUL!

I am printing out copies of the garbage discredited Fox state polls and throwing them in the trash as we speak.

[PresidentSamTilden]

Rasmussen has been so off base the cycle though that Im tempted to just right them off.

Reuters had a T+2 result as well. I think it's very possible Clinton is seeing an uptick right now, but I'm not buying a C+5 race until I see some more confirmation. Especially in state polls. They may very well be lagging, but I'm not taking it as gospel yet. I think it's more of a C+1 or +2 race right now, unless more data comes in to contradict it.

[Maxwell]

her honesty numbers have... improved sharply?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

her honesty numbers have... improved sharply?

They should...During the forum a few weeks back factcheck found that she was 70% truthful compared to Trumps 70% untruthful.

[NOVA Green]

Perhaps Trump's LV advantage has evaporated already.

We're seeing a series of polls showing Clinton with a mid-single digit national lead

NBC/WSJ: Clinton +7/+6
iCitizen: Clinton +5
Pew: Clinton +7
AP/GfK: Clinton +6

The state polls have no choice but to follow next week. Then comes the first debate reaction, however that goes

Rasmussen did have that Trump +5 though. I know they are R biased, but still, it throws a bit of a wrench into the state poll rally. Plus, with the debate coming up, all this might not matter too much.

Rasmussen has been so off base the cycle though that Im tempted to just right them off.

Take a rip, put on some Moody Blues or mid '70s tripper anthem and it will be gone and Trump will win.

Now one could always take a few cups of dank highly caffeinated Starbucks coffee and reevaluate...

The election is much closer than it should be, and lord I know I have made comments regarding WI and CO, but yeah if you are a Trump Republican staring at the faded posters in your parents attic or basement four or eight years from now, you will remember why Atlas Forum is GOD when it comes to collective wisdom....

[Fusionmunster]

Perhaps Trump's LV advantage has evaporated already.

We're seeing a series of polls showing Clinton with a mid-single digit national lead

NBC/WSJ: Clinton +7/+6
iCitizen: Clinton +5
Pew: Clinton +7
AP/GfK: Clinton +6

The state polls have no choice but to follow next week. Then comes the first debate reaction, however that goes

Rasmussen did have that Trump +5 though. I know they are R biased, but still, it throws a bit of a wrench into the state poll rally. Plus, with the debate coming up, all this might not matter too much.

Rasmussen has been so off base the cycle though that Im tempted to just right them off.

Take a rip, put on some Moody Blues or mid '70s tripper anthem and it will be gone and Trump will win.

Now one could always take a few cups of dank highly caffeinated Starbucks coffee and reevaluate...

The election is much closer than it should be, and lord I know I have made comments regarding WI and CO, but yeah if you are a Trump Republican staring at the faded posters in your parents attic or basement four or eight years from now, you will remember why Atlas Forum is GOD when it comes to collective wisdom....

There is a happy medium between plugging your ears and bieng a chicken little, im trying to find it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Leading indicators???

We'll need to see if lagging indicators follow suit, considering the state numbers have been mixed for Clinton over the past few days.

She has always led in the 272.  I'm confident that any consistent lead outside the MoE will mean almost certain victory on Nov 8.

[Person Man]

The she is back to a 3 or 4 point game yet?

[Seriously?]

Perhaps Trump's LV advantage has evaporated already.

We're seeing a series of polls showing Clinton with a mid-single digit national lead

NBC/WSJ: Clinton +7/+6
iCitizen: Clinton +5
Pew: Clinton +7
AP/GfK: Clinton +6

The state polls have no choice but to follow next week. Then comes the first debate reaction, however that goes

And what do those polls basically all have in common? D+7 or D+8 samples modeled after the 2012 vote. I am not saying that those numbers are wrong, but there seem to be two trains of methodological thought. Those that find the electorate close to 2012 (and get 2012-like numbers) and those that find it closer to a D+3 or D+4 number. Not surprisingly, those polls seem to favor Trump.

To get to that number, it probably comes down to how the electorate is modeled when it comes to race at the end of the day. Some polls have the racial makeup closer to 70 for the white vote. This particular poll has it at 66.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

If Hillary actually wins by 6, she'll get more than 272 EV. I'm very confident about that.

Yeah... From a tied race (freiwal only), I see NC flipping at 0.5, NV and FL around 1.5, OH and ME-02 around 3, Iowa and NE-02 following at 5, then AZ/GA a bit later (7-8 or so) and MO/SC around 10. So by that estimate, she'd win Obama 2008-IN if she were up 6, which actually makes perfect sense given that the margin was around 7 that election

[Antonio the Sixth]

National polling really doesn't seem to match up with State polling. That really bothers me. In 2012 Obama was polling better in States than in national matchups, and we know which of the two turned out to be right.

[mark_twain]

Excellent poll!

Let's keep up the momentum!