Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 21, 2019, 04:28:34 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print
Author Topic: Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6  (Read 3291 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,474
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: September 23, 2016, 04:20:30 pm »

These polls do not appear to be consistent with a Clinton +5 national number (NBC/WSJ poll), so unless we see more national poll numbers of a similar spread or state numbers that match, that poll does appear to overstate Clinton's numbers.

VA looks believable.... Clinton has maintained her 45% and Trump has consolidated his base over the past month, with potential further room to grow, but angry NOVA women will keep the safe state.

GA-- Looks to be a couple points friendly to Trump on the margins, and Clinton's support among white voters seems a bit low (16%) and not at all consistent with other recent Georgia polls. Still, GA is moving rapidly out of reach for Team Clinton, unless she can get the Millennials on board.

IA-- Seems reasonable enough. however there a huge number of 3rd party and undecided/persuadable numbers, so although is looking increasingly out of reach for Clinton, shifts in national numbers and GOTV could make that change.

CO--- I'm having some difficulties viewing this as plausible because of national polling numbers, statewide demographics, and underestimation of Latino voters. However, this poll does indicate that Trump has consolidated his support among evangelical Christian and national security Republicans in places like Colorado Springs, Western Colorado, etc... The key swing voting block in Colorado is generally in the suburbs of Denver and places like Fort Collins and Larimer, and it does seem that Trump is performing better than expected in these areas. For Clinton, the major challenge is to not just hold even, but to actually expand her base of support with Millennials and Bernie hold-out types, and this is a major reason as to why her numbers haven't increased over the past month in the Q poll.

Clinton needs to keep an eye on Colorado, since this and Wisconsin are the two most likely cracks in the 272 "Firewall".



I think we're gonna see a poll dump from Monmouth soon, which will show Clinton recovering and backing up the +5 margin.

Any idea of when Monmouth will dump? Haven't seen anything about this on the polling update thread....
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: September 23, 2016, 04:33:36 pm »

These polls do not appear to be consistent with a Clinton +5 national number (NBC/WSJ poll), so unless we see more national poll numbers of a similar spread or state numbers that match, that poll does appear to overstate Clinton's numbers.

VA looks believable.... Clinton has maintained her 45% and Trump has consolidated his base over the past month, with potential further room to grow, but angry NOVA women will keep the safe state.

GA-- Looks to be a couple points friendly to Trump on the margins, and Clinton's support among white voters seems a bit low (16%) and not at all consistent with other recent Georgia polls. Still, GA is moving rapidly out of reach for Team Clinton, unless she can get the Millennials on board.

IA-- Seems reasonable enough. however there a huge number of 3rd party and undecided/persuadable numbers, so although is looking increasingly out of reach for Clinton, shifts in national numbers and GOTV could make that change.

CO--- I'm having some difficulties viewing this as plausible because of national polling numbers, statewide demographics, and underestimation of Latino voters. However, this poll does indicate that Trump has consolidated his support among evangelical Christian and national security Republicans in places like Colorado Springs, Western Colorado, etc... The key swing voting block in Colorado is generally in the suburbs of Denver and places like Fort Collins and Larimer, and it does seem that Trump is performing better than expected in these areas. For Clinton, the major challenge is to not just hold even, but to actually expand her base of support with Millennials and Bernie hold-out types, and this is a major reason as to why her numbers haven't increased over the past month in the Q poll.

Clinton needs to keep an eye on Colorado, since this and Wisconsin are the two most likely cracks in the 272 "Firewall".



I think we're gonna see a poll dump from Monmouth soon, which will show Clinton recovering and backing up the +5 margin.

Any idea of when Monmouth will dump? Haven't seen anything about this on the polling update thread....

They aren't.
Logged
oriass16
Rookie
*
Posts: 22
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: September 23, 2016, 07:52:45 pm »

I think this election is going to come down to Colorado, when I analyse any Colorado poll I go to see how independents responded to the pollster, D and R in Colorado they almost the same number so they cancel each other 

In this poll Trump won INDs by 9 points which is great for him It is not clear how INDs voted in emrson poll but from available data I estimated they voted trump+15 over Clinton.In 2012 Romney won INDs by only 4 points

I believe if trump can keep this range of double digits lead among INDs  and solidify his position among republicans in here I think he can flip Colorado and take the white house.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC