Democracy Corps: Clinton +8 PA, +4 NC, Tied NV, Trump +2 OH

[NOVA Green]

Fascinating.  I think Trump is actually up outside of shy Spanish-speaking Dems range in NV now.  It seems unlikely that Democrats will seriously contest OH and especially IA in 2020 at this rate, and Republicans may stop targeting VA.

Clinton needs to start talking about jobs and the economy and move away from negative ads focusing on Trumps judgement and temperament to be President. It's not like she will be able to decrease his unfavorables lower...

In Ohio, it's all about the economy stupid, and Nevada has its own share of economic distress going back to the beginning of the Great Recession.

2016 isn't 2020, so no need to get that far into the future, but Clinton has a major problem when even with the recent polls showing Clinton +5 still giving Trump +5 on who would be better with jobs and the economy.

[NOVA Green]

If we adjust this 2-3 points toward Trump, we get for Clinton:

PA + 5-6
NC + 1-2
NV - 2-3
OH - 4-5

That's pretty much in line with recent polling.

So Nate and 538 has adjusted these +2 in Trump's favor (As expected) and they have a lower weight than most other polls in these four states, but yes basically reinforces what we have seen elsewhere that Clinton looks solid in PA, NC is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, NV is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, OH is lean Trump by a small margin.

If anyone has a tiny lead in NC, I think it's Clinton.  We could very well see IA and OH go R this year while NC goes D.  Who would have expected that?

Very true (bolded)... that being said both Trump and Clinton have high floors in NC, although the past few weeks of polling seems to indicate a Trump 1-2% lead at this time, with greater room for Clinton to expand upon her base than Trump.

This state will likely come down to the wire and GOTV, combined with the level of backlash against the State Republican Party that has been rising since they rammed through unpopular legislation since 2013....

[mark_twain]

Great poll!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

[Ebsy]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

It's not an internal, but no one here is claiming Nevada is anything but a toss up at this point.

[heatcharger]

Yeah I'm gonna throw these polls in the garbage. Look at the Senate numbers.

[NOVA Green]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

Totally agreed...

I've posted on many other threads recently regarding Nevada, and specifically how this is a state that saw arguably the longest lasting impact from the Great Recession, and still has not seen a full recovery, even after eight years of a Democratic President.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245686.msg5263631#msg5263631

[Xing]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

Right, the polls are God and can't possibly be wrong. If polls show a close race in Kentucky, then Kentucky must be a toss-up, no questions asked.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

Right, the polls are God and can't possibly be wrong. If polls show a close race in Kentucky, then Kentucky must be a toss-up, no questions asked.

Well, yeah, if Clinton suddenly took the lead in Kentucky I'd move it out of Safe at least. But she hasn't, so your example is irrelevant.

[Xing]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

Right, the polls are God and can't possibly be wrong. If polls show a close race in Kentucky, then Kentucky must be a toss-up, no questions asked.

Well, yeah, if Clinton suddenly took the lead in Kentucky I'd move it out of Safe at least. But she hasn't, so your example is irrelevant.

Not to mention that if 15 polls in a row showed a close contest in a state like MS (with Clinton leading in most of them), people would probably consider it a Tossup state or at least Tilt R instead of Safe R.

If the race looked close nationally, and other polls didn't suggest that Clinton would do significantly better among Southern whites than Obama, and yet MS polls were close, I'm pretty sure people would be skeptical of "BattlegroundMississippi", and rightfully so. Sure, the polls tell us something, but to act as if they can't be wrong, when they have been in that particular state many times (and often by significant margins) is foolish. Rate NV a Toss-Up if you like, but calling anyone who doesn't agree delusional is just asking for tons of egg on your face come election day.

[Lachi]

Yeah, James Carville's Democrats strike again. Treat this as nothing other than an advocacy group poll.

It's basically Democrat trolling the media at the end of the day to show Hillary! is up big. And if that's the best they can come up with in NV, Hillary is in trouble there.

STOP PUTTING THE EXCLAMATION MARK AFTER HILLARY'S NAME!