Cook Political Map Megathread
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Author Topic: Cook Political Map Megathread  (Read 1128 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: June 06, 2016, 01:50:10 PM »
« edited: September 23, 2016, 12:57:08 PM by Likely Voter »
http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard



Clinton 304
Trump 190
Toss Up 44

Garbage map. How can he rate NH Tossup when Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all lean D? Also, >no individual ratings for ME-02 and NE-02.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2016, 01:54:17 PM »
Disagree with NH, no problem with any of the other states except maybe MI which seems much less likely to vote R than states like Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.
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Penelope
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« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2016, 01:55:19 PM »
Freedom Map if only for showing NH as toss-up.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2016, 01:55:38 PM »
Probably because he's aware of how many white people there are in NH and how many hispanics there are in FL.  I'm not sure I agree with it but I think it's defensible.
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Higgs
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« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2016, 02:08:30 PM »
HM cause Utah is safe R
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mgop
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« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2016, 02:12:37 PM »
funny map, cRook map
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2016, 02:19:25 PM »
Quote from: Penelope on June 06, 2016, 01:55:19 PM
Freedom Map if only for showing NH as toss-up.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2016, 02:19:37 PM »
>Putting Michigan in the same category as Florida
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2016, 02:20:17 PM »
Horrible Map. Absolute LOL at the idea of Iowa being significantly more competitive than FL. At this quite early juncture, a very conservative map is the best.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2016, 02:22:02 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on June 06, 2016, 02:20:17 PM
Horrible Map. Absolute LOL at the idea of Iowa being significantly more competitive than FL. At this quite early juncture, a very conservative map is the best.




This map is even worse. MI/WI are not more likely to flip than NC, lol.
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LLR
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« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2016, 02:27:06 PM »
Arizona -> Tossup
NH -> Lean D
IA -> Lean D
WI -> Likely D
FL -> Tossup
MT -> Likely R

Much better
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cxs018
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« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2016, 02:32:07 PM »
FF, as THE GRAND, GLORIOUS STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, HOME OF THE INFAMOUSLY WINDY MOUNT WASHINGTON, HOME OF LONDONDERRY, THE SITE OF THE FIRST POTATO EVER PLANTED ON AMERICAN SOIL, HOME OF ALAN SHEPARD, FIRST AMERICAN TO TRAVEL INTO SPACE, HOME OF THE FIRST EVER LIBRARY IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, HOME OF THE FIRST EVER LEGAL STATE LOTTERY IN THE U. S. OF A. is depicted in its true state: an INDEPENDENT SWING STATE.
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LLR
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« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2016, 02:42:24 PM »
Quote from: Senator Smith (Labor-MA) on June 06, 2016, 02:32:07 PM
FF, as THE GRAND, GLORIOUS STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, HOME OF THE INFAMOUSLY WINDY MOUNT WASHINGTON, HOME OF LONDONDERRY, THE SITE OF THE FIRST POTATO EVER PLANTED ON AMERICAN SOIL, HOME OF ALAN SHEPARD, FIRST AMERICAN TO TRAVEL INTO SPACE, HOME OF THE FIRST EVER LIBRARY IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, HOME OF THE FIRST EVER LEGAL STATE LOTTERY IN THE U. S. OF A., HOME OF OUR OVERLORD DARRYL W. PERRY is depicted in its true state: an INDEPENDENT SWING STATE.

FTFY
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2016, 02:43:06 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2016, 05:23:13 PM by ascott »
Horrible.



This is the only acceptable map, of course.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2016, 02:44:33 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on June 06, 2016, 02:20:17 PM
Horrible Map. Absolute LOL at the idea of Iowa being significantly more competitive than FL. At this quite early juncture, a very conservative map is the best.




That looks a lot worse IMO.   If Michigan is going to be tossup than NC should be too, and Indiana and Missouri would probably be turned to lean/likely GOP.
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MisterElection2001
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« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2016, 03:47:38 PM »

The people at RealClearPolitics are huffing paint if they think this map is accurate.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #16 on: June 06, 2016, 03:58:06 PM »
Move the Lean R to tossup, and the tossup to Lean D and New Hampshire to Solid D along with the Lean D and you've got a decent map.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #17 on: June 06, 2016, 03:59:26 PM »
They have ME-2 as "Likely D" and NE-2 as tossup btw.
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tinman64
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« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2016, 04:24:20 PM »
Horrible because NH and NV should be lean Clinton.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2016, 05:38:35 PM »
Overall it isn't terrible, but placing New Hampshire and North Carolina in the same category doesn't make any sense.  Neither does grouping Florida with Wisconsin and Michigan.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2016, 06:38:49 PM »
« Edited: August 15, 2016, 06:46:18 PM by Ebsy »


NE-2 and ME-2 are also tossups.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2016, 10:17:43 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2016, 10:20:21 AM by GeorgiaModerate »
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10026

Two changes: IA from Tossup to Lean R, CO from Likely D to Lean D.  They currently have the race as:

Solid D 188
Likely D 25
Lean D 59
Tossup 70 (includes both ME-02 and NE-02)
Lean R 33
Likely R 27
Solid R 133 136

The combination of the Solid D, Likely D, and Lean D states is the 272 freiwal.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2016, 10:32:14 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 23, 2016, 10:18:13 AM
The 272 freiwal is too much for me to handle!

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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2016, 10:34:39 AM »
Isn't this 272 freiwal a different set of states from the original OC one?  Which would make it even more strange.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2016, 10:40:06 AM »
Rating VA as "likely Dem" is a bit crazy, considering 2014 when even a popular guy like Mark Warner led the polls by 10 points and only eeked out a 1% win on election day.

Same with CO, which has not fully completed it's trend to a Democratic state (Udall was voted out).

I would rate both of these states as only "lean Dem" or even tossup, because the polls might be terribly wrong again ...
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