Democracy Corps: Clinton +8 PA, +4 NC, Tied NV, Trump +2 OH

[Xing]

Obviously the all important uneducated white voters in NV will make it a Trumpslide, so LOL for NV being tied.

Anyway, good numbers for Hillary in PA and NC, terrible numbers for her in OH, though I have a hard time believing that OH will be six points to the right of NC (and ten points to the right of PA.) The two-way numbers make a little more sense.

[Xing]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

Right, the polls are God and can't possibly be wrong. If polls show a close race in Kentucky, then Kentucky must be a toss-up, no questions asked.

[Xing]

If what is basically a D internal can only show Clinton tied in Nevada, anyone who is still calling it Lean D needs to quit being delusional and accept reality. NV is a toss-up.

Right, the polls are God and can't possibly be wrong. If polls show a close race in Kentucky, then Kentucky must be a toss-up, no questions asked.

Well, yeah, if Clinton suddenly took the lead in Kentucky I'd move it out of Safe at least. But she hasn't, so your example is irrelevant.

Not to mention that if 15 polls in a row showed a close contest in a state like MS (with Clinton leading in most of them), people would probably consider it a Tossup state or at least Tilt R instead of Safe R.

If the race looked close nationally, and other polls didn't suggest that Clinton would do significantly better among Southern whites than Obama, and yet MS polls were close, I'm pretty sure people would be skeptical of "BattlegroundMississippi", and rightfully so. Sure, the polls tell us something, but to act as if they can't be wrong, when they have been in that particular state many times (and often by significant margins) is foolish. Rate NV a Toss-Up if you like, but calling anyone who doesn't agree delusional is just asking for tons of egg on your face come election day.