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Author Topic: GA-Landmark/WSBTV: Trump+4  (Read 1137 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: September 23, 2016, 05:11:10 pm »

https://twitter.com/LoriGearyWSB/status/779441203410526208
http://media.beta.wsbtv.com/document_dev/2016/09/23/prespoll923_6148208_ver1.0.pdf

Trump 47 (45)
Clinton 43 (45)
Johnson 6 (4)

Trump is struggling with women voters in Georgia. He trails Clinton by 5 points but has a 14 point lead with men.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2016, 05:20:17 pm »

looks more or less right since the tightening.

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xīngkěruž
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2016, 05:21:06 pm »

Georgia has remained pretty consistent, even with all of the various national swings.
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I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.
PiT (The Physicist)
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2016, 05:23:56 pm »

Georgia has remained pretty consistent, even with all of the various national swings.

     The relationship between national and state polls has been complex, to say the least.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2016, 05:24:41 pm »

Seems about right, and with a drop in 3rd party support Clinton can't win the state with only 23% of White voters...

It's looking a bit like, college educated Whites are reverting to their traditional voting patterns down the Atlanta suburbs.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2016, 05:30:10 pm »

Republicans should not be excited about only being up 4 in GA of all places after Romney won here by 8
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2016, 05:56:59 pm »

This seems like it's pretty close to the mark.  It's going to be close, but I just don't see Clinton winning the state unless the dynamic of the race shifts significantly.  If it gets back to post-DNC levels, then the GA result will be in doubt.

FWIW, I've seen one Clinton ad on Atlanta TV in the past couple of weeks (caveat: I don't watch much local TV.)
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The fundamental fight is not between left and right but between proudly-ignorant, reckless and incompetent indecency and those who oppose it.  -- Benjamin Wittes
HillOfANight
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2016, 06:07:37 pm »

This seems like it's pretty close to the mark.  It's going to be close, but I just don't see Clinton winning the state unless the dynamic of the race shifts significantly.  If it gets back to post-DNC levels, then the GA result will be in doubt.

FWIW, I've seen one Clinton ad on Atlanta TV in the past couple of weeks (caveat: I don't watch much local TV.)
http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-tv-ads/

They only spent $12k the week of September 6.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/09/06/hillary-clinton-goes-on-the-air-in-georgia-with-new-tv-ad/

I think it was intended to generate headlines, not really leave any impressions. It's a shame, I think advertising could make a difference here. Maybe they're saving up for later.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2016, 07:48:31 pm »

The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2016, 07:52:49 pm »

The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.

Any reason why they decided not to?
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For England, James?

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2016, 07:59:06 pm »

The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.

Any reason why they decided not to?

Maybe because they are spending way too much money in other states in ineffective campaign commercials designed to drive Trump's negatives even further into the ground, rather than expanding the turf???
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2016, 08:03:14 pm »

The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.

Any reason why they decided not to?

Could be any number of reasons. Georgia has 10 million people spread across 159 counties, so it's very difficult to coordinate that many entities. There are a lot of county parties that effectively exist only on paper, so there is a tendency for campaigns to focus on a narrow subset of counties where the share of the Democratic vote is large and the parties are actually active/engaged.

I admit that I'm gauging this on my personal experience with the campaigns, so this one part is anecdotal...I'm in the heavily Republican north, which often gets left out as a whole due to its lack of county-by-county Democratic organization and sheer margins, but...I'm also in the largest county in North Georgia outside of the metro and the one that generally serves as the "hub" for coordinating the other surrounding counties wrt training events, distribution of campaign paraphernalia, etc. We usually get contacted earlier by the campaigns.

We did a hell of a job in Whitfield in 2014 if you look at the swing in the Governor's race and that got noticed. When you combine that, our relative activity compared to the other surrounding counties and  the county's population + demographics, one assumes that if they were reaching out at all in this part of the state, then they'd reach out here first. Because of that, I'm betting that none of the other counties were contacted earlier and that our experience is a relative barometer.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2016, 10:01:16 pm »

Georgia for the Democrats is Pennsylvania for the Republicans, i.e. an elusive dream.
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chrisras
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2016, 11:34:17 pm »

My friends, I don't think advertising is having an impact this year.  I live in Florida and you would be stunned how many Hillary Clinton and Anti-Trump ads I've seen.  It's constant.  I haven't seen pro Trump ads.  The race is a tie here.

I agree that Georgia is the Pennsylvania for Democrats.
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President North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2016, 06:34:33 am »

The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.

Any reason why they decided not to?

Could be any number of reasons. Georgia has 10 million people spread across 159 counties, so it's very difficult to coordinate that many entities. There are a lot of county parties that effectively exist only on paper, so there is a tendency for campaigns to focus on a narrow subset of counties where the share of the Democratic vote is large and the parties are actually active/engaged.

I admit that I'm gauging this on my personal experience with the campaigns, so this one part is anecdotal...I'm in the heavily Republican north, which often gets left out as a whole due to its lack of county-by-county Democratic organization and sheer margins, but...I'm also in the largest county in North Georgia outside of the metro and the one that generally serves as the "hub" for coordinating the other surrounding counties wrt training events, distribution of campaign paraphernalia, etc. We usually get contacted earlier by the campaigns.

We did a hell of a job in Whitfield in 2014 if you look at the swing in the Governor's race and that got noticed. When you combine that, our relative activity compared to the other surrounding counties and  the county's population + demographics, one assumes that if they were reaching out at all in this part of the state, then they'd reach out here first. Because of that, I'm betting that none of the other counties were contacted earlier and that our experience is a relative barometer.

Long story short: six years too soon! Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2016, 09:49:39 am »

This is not in the database yet ...
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