ME-02-Normington Petts: Trump +4

[JA]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

[JA]

could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?

If the Northeastern suburbs are starting to move hard to the Democrats, while rural areas start to shift to Republicans, that would make sense.

Yep. I think we're beginning to see the culmination of what had been a gradual realignment transforming into a more rapid one during this election cycle. The Republican Party, as it stands today, is anathema to minorities and most educated white voters - especially those living in large metropolitan areas. Rural and working class white areas will become increasingly Republican. I'd predict we'll see this manifest in the leftward swing of counties that constitutes the Boswash megalopolis, essentially establishing a nearly solid blue wall from the counties of NoVa to southern New Hampshire. We'll also see a greater divergence in trends between the rural and/or blue collar parts of states trending R (such as Western Pennsylvania, Northern Florida, Northern Maine, Upstate New York) and the metropolitan and educated parts of states trending D (Research Triangle, Boswash from NoVa to Southern New Hampshire, Coastal California, the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins area, and places like Austin and Atlanta).

This is the most depressing thing I've read all day and you're probably completely right.

Well, rural New England+NY's North Country is the only area that has resisted this trend over the past 20 years. In fact, it's a lot more Democratic now than it used to be not so long ago. It's possible that this trend will begin reversing itself in 2016, but I still have reasonable hopes that this one holdout will continue resisting.

Well its about damn time, I say. I hope it reaches Vermont in 10 years or so.

It won't. Upstate New York and Northern Maine are fundamentally different from Vermont. The latter is significantly more educated (has one of the nation's highest postsecondary degree rates) and has an economy better adapted to the 21st century. There may be a slight trend R, but that'd be attributable solely to their incredibly low minority population.

The most interesting trends to watch within the Northeast alone will be the trend R in central and southern Pennsylvania, rural Maryland, southern Delaware, upstate New York, northern New Hampshire, northern Maine, and possibly northeastern Vermont, eastern Connecticut, and western Rhode Island. In contrast, the areas trending D will likely be the metros (urban core and suburbs) of Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Bridgeport, New Haven, Hartford, Providence, Boston, Worcester, Manchester, Portland, and the university towns. The easiest way to distinguish which county will trend D or R is to evaluate its current trend, postsecondary educational attainment, and minority population.

[JA]

So the US will move to a UK urban-suburban-rural split?

Generally, yes. The future of evaluating the demographics of US politics will be postsecondary education white + minority + secular = Democrat, while high school education white + Christianity = Republican. States that are rural, yet have a highly educated and secular population (Vermont), will continue to be Democratic. The most fundamental change is actually the complete detachment of the Democratic Party from its New Deal foundation, which had begun decades ago, but is only now becoming complete as they develop a new, solidified coalition. The last party to have a coalition of a similar demographic makeup (most educated + minorities) was the Republican Party of Nelson Rockefeller. Just ponder that...

I'd also add that I fully expect Clinton to govern within the political tradition of the Rockefeller Republican Party (uncomfortably close to Wall Street and interventionist, very internationalist-oriented and supportive of utilizing the federal government for righting social injustice). But there will still be some left-oriented reforms, assuming she can push them through Congress.