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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | |-+  PA-Morning Call: Clinton +3
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Author Topic: PA-Morning Call: Clinton +3  (Read 1879 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: September 24, 2016, 06:41:31 pm »
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http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-debate-poll-20160924-story.html
Clinton 44 (47)
Trump 41 (38)

Clinton 40 (40)
Trump 38 (32)
Johnson 8 (14)
Stein 3 (5)
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2016, 06:50:06 pm »
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Well, that completely sucks. These national poll gains for Hillary really haven't translated in these state polls at all.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2016, 06:50:34 pm »
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*gasp*

This is why I hate weekly polls. Sad
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2016, 06:53:19 pm »
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wasn't this the one that showed Clinton + 8 before? Confused
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2016, 06:54:50 pm »
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So what basically happened is Johnson collapsed and MoE?
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xīngkěruì
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2016, 06:58:29 pm »
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inb4 Atlas has a collective meltdown. I'm not going to worry unless Trump actually leads in a poll of a must-win state for Hillary.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2016, 07:08:21 pm »
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So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2016, 07:08:33 pm »
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It would nice to see more polling here from Q or Marist. Don't know what happened this week that would cause a 5 point swing.

I imagine we'll get a ton of polls after Monday's debate.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2016, 07:09:54 pm »
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So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2016, 07:15:55 pm »
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So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

Theres a reason there are no good weekly/daily tracking polls imo, too much variance. Johnson hasn't done enough to loose half his support.
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Benedicamus Domino
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2016, 07:16:58 pm »
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So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

Theres a reason there are no good weekly/daily tracking polls imo, too much variance. Johnson hasn't done enough to loose half his support.
He didn't make it on the debate stage that could be a big reason.
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2016, 07:17:16 pm »
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Oh yes.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2016, 07:17:54 pm »
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So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

Theres a reason there are no good weekly/daily tracking polls imo, too much variance. Johnson hasn't done enough to loose half his support.
He didn't make it on the debate stage that could be a big reason.

We would see that next week, not now.
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2016, 07:18:20 pm »
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Muh Trump surge!
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2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2016, 07:18:28 pm »
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I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

Yeah, a 6 point drop off doesn't make much sense. Looks like statistical noise.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2016, 07:20:15 pm »
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So she's up 5 nationally and only winning Pennsylvania by 2??

I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

^^
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2016, 07:25:52 pm »
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The variance is weird and I'm not sure I totally trust these numbers. Doesn't it make sense that Johnson's support should begin unraveling, though, if it's going to break apart at all? It's obvious to everyone that the man isn't going to make the debates and has nowhere to go but down. We're also several weeks into true GE mode, and it makes sense to me that some people previously polling Johnson would now decide they are ready to go for either Hillary or Trump as a lesser evil.
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JJC
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2016, 07:30:43 pm »
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I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

Yeah, a 6 point drop off doesn't make much sense. Looks like statistical noise.

I never believed she was up that much in PA in the first place. Although Trump is weaker than other Republicans in traditional conservative states like TX, GA ect, he is much strong in the rust belt area. I have a strong feeling that PA is within 5 points right now.

Hillary is cleaning his clock in big dem states like CA and NY, while Trump is only modestly ahead in big GOP states like TX, GA, which would explain why Trump might be down a few points nationally but still doing very well in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, MI, WI, ect. Also CO, despite not being in the rust belt, is very similar in many ways.

Watch the rust belt!
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Good intentions will always be pleaded for every assumption of authority. It is hardly too strong to say that the Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions. There are men in all ages who mean to govern well, but they mean to govern. They promise to be good masters, but they mean to be masters. ~Daniel Webster
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2016, 07:38:06 pm »
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President Romney carried Pennsylvania easily, so Trump should have no issue /sarc

November 9th will a day of anger for Trump supporters. They might even riot in the streets.
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Spark498
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2016, 07:40:38 pm »
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I'm going to guess that last week was too favorable to Clinton and this week is too favorable to Trump.

Yeah, a 6 point drop off doesn't make much sense. Looks like statistical noise.

I never believed she was up that much in PA in the first place. Although Trump is weaker than other Republicans in traditional conservative states like TX, GA ect, he is much strong in the rust belt area. I have a strong feeling that PA is within 5 points right now.

Hillary is cleaning his clock in big dem states like CA and NY, while Trump is only modestly ahead in big GOP states like TX, GA, which would explain why Trump might be down a few points nationally but still doing very well in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, MI, WI, ect. Also CO, despite not being in the rust belt, is very similar in many ways.

Watch the rust belt!

Exactly, he may actually lose the PV while winning in the Electoral College similar to 2000.
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2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
JJC
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2016, 07:41:12 pm »
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President Romney carried Pennsylvania easily, so Trump should have no issue /sarc

November 9th will a day of anger for Trump supporters. They might even riot in the streets.

Trump doesn't even need PA to win. If Hillary loses it however, the election is over.

(And seriously, when's the last time you've seen Republicans riot. Liberals, on the other hand...)

« Last Edit: September 24, 2016, 07:48:49 pm by JJC »Logged


Quote
Good intentions will always be pleaded for every assumption of authority. It is hardly too strong to say that the Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions. There are men in all ages who mean to govern well, but they mean to govern. They promise to be good masters, but they mean to be masters. ~Daniel Webster
Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2016, 07:41:35 pm »
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Obvious junk with swings this big in a week.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2016, 07:43:36 pm »
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lolwut
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2016, 07:47:55 pm »
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This pollster is rated A by 538 and its last poll of Clinton +8 was adjusted by 538 to Clinton +7
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The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2016, 07:48:45 pm »
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President Romney carried Pennsylvania easily, so Trump should have no issue /sarc

November 9th will a day of anger for Trump supporters. They might even riot in the streets.

Trump doesn't even need PA to win. If Hillary loses it however, the election is over.

(And seriously, when's the last time you seen Republicans riot. Liberals, on the other hand...)



Whatever helps you sleep at night. Trump won't win, because Satan isn't that powerful. The white supremacists will be out in the street trying to beat up every non-white person in sight when Trump loses, because they are already sending out threats on social media of putting people in ovens.
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LOCK TRUMP UP!
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