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Author Topic: ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%  (Read 5594 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 25, 2016, 03:43:04 am »

Statewide:

40% Clinton
36% Trump
12% Johnson
  3% Stein

CD1:

50% Clinton
28% Trump

CD2:

48% Trump
34% Clinton

Quote
The Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center on Sept. 15-20, 2016. Results are based on land line and cellular telephone interviews with 593 randomly selected Maine adults and 513 randomly selected likely Maine voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for all adults and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters.

http://www.pressherald.com/2016/09/25/maine-voters-appear-poised-to-render-historic-electoral-college-vote-split-in-2016-election
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matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 03:46:36 am »

CD 2 must be the reason why Maine has a insane governor?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 03:51:00 am »

The hard-working wood-chopping men up there absolutely seem to hate Hillary ...
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IndyRep
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 03:52:29 am »

I've always said that Maine would be more competitive than New Hampshire. Love it. Smiley
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Jacobin American
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 05:06:22 am »

Color me unsurprised. Maine has the lowest postsecondary attainment rate in the Northeast, the lowest minority population in the country, and is the most rural state. It's a perfect fit, especially the part of the state outside the Portland metro, for trending R.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 05:13:16 am »

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2016, 06:54:48 am »

Assuming ME is really that close, which counties would Trump win? Piscataquis would obviously stay Republican and Penobscot, Somerset and Washington would definitely flip. Waldo, Franklin and Aroostook might flip as well. Oxford, Lincoln and York could be close, but I don't see Trump winning them (especially not York).
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 06:56:56 am by TN volunteer »Logged
yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2016, 07:48:04 am »

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?

It definitely leans republican at the very least.
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 09:00:19 am »

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2016, 10:03:42 am »

This is possible in a Trumpslide, but I have trouble seeing ME-02 spontaneously becoming as Republican as a Plains state. It could get there eventually, but I think that Trump winning there by double digits is wishful thinking.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2016, 10:09:42 am »

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?

It definitely leans republican at the very least.
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🌈Rainbow Jihad
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2016, 10:13:28 am »

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

The polls we're seeing this season are giving us an extremely incohesive map.  If Clinton's losing ME-2 by fourteen points, Georgia and Arizona shouldn't be anywhere close to being in play.  If Iowa's going to Trump by nine points, he should be ahead in Pennsylvania by at least 2.  "Battleground Utah" should never have been a thought.

So conventional wisdom suggests we should be headed for either a total Trump blowout or a total Clinton blowout.  But we're not.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2016, 10:25:33 am »

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?

It definitely leans republican at the very least.

In this election, ME-02 really appears to have become a lean-R EV.  However, I am skeptical that it will stay that way in a normal race with a normal R candidate; Trump just seems like a perfect fit for the district. 

I still think in the future, if the Dem can win Maine by a decent margin, like at least 8 points, they'll win ME-02 also.   I could be wrong, but I want to see it happen for more than one cycle before I'm convinced this isn't temporary.
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Erc
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2016, 11:00:11 am »

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

The polls we're seeing this season are giving us an extremely incohesive map.  If Clinton's losing ME-2 by fourteen points, Georgia and Arizona shouldn't be anywhere close to being in play.  If Iowa's going to Trump by nine points, he should be ahead in Pennsylvania by at least 2.  "Battleground Utah" should never have been a thought.

So conventional wisdom suggests we should be headed for either a total Trump blowout or a total Clinton blowout.  But we're not.

In a world where White Men without a College Degree are second only to Black voters as the most partisan demographic group in the country, we're going to get some strange results.
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2016, 11:03:21 am »

Now we know why Hillary's not defending it =D
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2016, 11:19:56 am »

A 36-point difference between districts? That's just ridiculous.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2016, 11:21:09 am »

To make sense, this would mean that Hillary is ahead by 22 points in CD-1. That's just ridiculous.

That result, in and of itself, isn't hard to believe. Obama won ME-01 by almost that exact margin.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2016, 11:23:58 am »

To make sense, this would mean that Hillary is ahead by 22 points in CD-1. That's just ridiculous.

That result, in and of itself, isn't hard to believe. Obama won ME-01 by almost that exact margin.

I meant the difference between the two. Edited to clarify.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2016, 11:24:27 am »

I'm having a HARD time believing that Trump is 14 points ahead in ME-2 yet being over 20 points behind in ME-1
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2016, 12:23:09 pm »

A 36-point difference between districts? That's just ridiculous.

Very strange indeed.
I would say ME-02 could be Lean-R (at this time), so it's hard to believe he leads by +14.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2016, 12:37:03 pm »

I'm having a HARD time believing that Trump is 14 points ahead in ME-2 yet being over 20 points behind in ME-1
I mean... ME-01 is basically the urban/well-educated district, while ME-02 might as well be a gerrymander for the Reps. I remember when I was putting together my "Hyper-polarized" map for Maine (don't judge me, I have a lot of spare time), it came out looking a lot like the actual map:

Img
Img


(For the record, Obama still won both in 2008 Tongue)
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 12:38:50 pm by John Ewards »Logged
ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2016, 01:52:13 pm »

Does anyone still think that ME-02 is more competitive than Maine at-large?
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jaichind
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2016, 02:03:37 pm »

What is interesting about this poll is that Trump is running ahead of the GOP congressional candidates in both CDs.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2016, 02:16:52 pm »

Does anyone still think that ME-02 is more competitive than Maine at-large?

Yes, because there's a chance that Hillary could win ME-02, although I'll admit that it seems unlikely right now. There's no way Trump is going to win the statewide vote.
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Erc
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2016, 02:49:37 pm »

There's no way a difference this large between the two districts can be explained by relative swings among different educational groups alone.  The two congressional districts are not that different; a good 40% of college-educated Mainers live in CD 2.

Getting a result like this just with educational swings would require college educated and non-college educated voters to each swing 30% in opposite directions, which clearly isn't happening.

This poll is off and/or there's something peculiar going on with CD 2. 

If the latter, what is it?  Has there been some political divide between the two CDs sparked by Paul LePage?  Something to do with the heroin epidemic?  Something going on in the French-Canadian community?  Some weird urban-rural divide?  Did Clinton do something to piss all of them off individually?
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