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| | | | |-+  ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%
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Author Topic: ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%  (Read 4427 times)
Hilldog
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« Reply #50 on: September 25, 2016, 09:54:30 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?

Watch the name calling, because I'm not afraid to use the report button. With that said, the election has not occurred yet, so Trump has not over performed generic R anywhere. It's ignorant to create data based on an election that is never happened. But, I won't argue with you. On election day, I will praise Jesus when my predictions are correct. Let's revisit this post on November 9th.

That's...an odd argument/counterargument/defense/whatever, to say the least.

We have opinion polls of geographic areas such as this one. We also have crosstabs by demographics indicating that Trump polls very well among demographics like those that make up the population of said areas.

Data based on election results>data based on opinion polls>data based on assuming past trends will continue regardless of what opinion polls say.
Again, I don't see Trump winning ME-2 based on NORMAL REPUBLICANS losing it and I think a lot of people are way overestimating Trump like they did Todd Akin in the Missouri Senate race. It's called a difference of opinion. You think he'll win ME-2 big, I don't. Let's leave it at that.

Do most "normal Republicans" poll at 14% of the black vote?
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #51 on: September 25, 2016, 10:42:57 pm »

Lots of denial in this thread.

It's a UNH poll...
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #52 on: September 26, 2016, 12:19:00 am »

Repeat after me:

ANGRY FRENCH-CANADIAN LUMBERJACKS

The huge difference between the two districts seems a bit crazy to me though. I will say that Trump has been doing consistently well in ME-2. I'd be inclined to give ME-2 to him at this point. Not sure about November though.
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Figueira
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« Reply #53 on: September 26, 2016, 01:03:48 am »

haha why are people freaking out about this? this is a crosstab from a specious uni-polling firm lmao.

That's my point Dead Flags.... but Trump looks like he will win ME-02.

This is the evidence we have that points in that direction:
-a SUSA crosstab
-a wonky internal
-a UNH crosstab
-an Emerson crosstab
-a crosstab from some unknown firm with a bizarre name

SUSA is a solid polling firm but their crosstabs are notoriously terrible. I shouldn't have to explain why I don't trust the rest of these polls. Until we have more polling from reputable firms, rather than this assortment of trash, I don't buy that Trump is going to win ME-2 by more than 1-2 points. It's a tossup at worst.

Again: Clinton would compete here if her analytics team thought it was close. The alternative explanation (that it's a Trump blowout) would suggest a WV-sized trend to Trump. So I'm thinking that it's not close and that we've been mislead by junk polls. I might be wrong; we'll see.

I think they have determined that it is a Trump blowout and that the 1 EV is unlikely to matter.  In any event, we'll know something is up if Clinton starts campaigning in Portland.  Note that Clinton has campaigned and run ads in NE-02, so they must be pretty sanguine about that one.

Portland is not in ME-2....
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Ebowed
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« Reply #54 on: September 26, 2016, 01:59:34 am »

I think they have determined that it is a Trump blowout and that the 1 EV is unlikely to matter.  In any event, we'll know something is up if Clinton starts campaigning in Portland.  Note that Clinton has campaigned and run ads in NE-02, so they must be pretty sanguine about that one.

Portland is not in ME-2....

Yet Trump was campaigning there. Grin

I dislike your implication that I dislike these people or that I think they don't have valid interests.

You certainly gave the impression that you did. ... It seemed like that was what you were doing, mainly because you were deploying a lot of the same tropes as IceSpear, who absolutely is doing that.

That's fair, and I was probably even conscious of that when I wrote the original post- it came with extra salt, to be sure- but that is not a complete picture, only part of it, and I was blowing off a bit of steam there, but I think we're largely on the same page.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #55 on: September 27, 2016, 06:14:45 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.
This.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #56 on: September 27, 2016, 06:15:45 pm »

People have to give credit to Obama for his achievement. He won Iowa twice convincing while Clinton is losing big there.

I think it shows how strong a candidate Obama was. It also shows how horrible a candidate Clinton is!
Since when?  If Obama took Iowa twice, then there's no way Trump is getting it.
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cinyc
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« Reply #57 on: September 27, 2016, 06:28:48 pm »

I think they have determined that it is a Trump blowout and that the 1 EV is unlikely to matter.  In any event, we'll know something is up if Clinton starts campaigning in Portland.  Note that Clinton has campaigned and run ads in NE-02, so they must be pretty sanguine about that one.

Portland is not in ME-2....

Yet Trump was campaigning there. Grin

One thing to keep in mind is that just because a city isn't in a particular CD (or even state) doesn't mean that its entire TV market isn't.  Some major ME-02 towns like Lewiston and Auburn are in the Portland TV market.  Also, I think the Bangor TV market is so small that at least one of the stations largely simulcasts Portland TV news, instead of producing their own product.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #58 on: September 27, 2016, 06:38:12 pm »

I doubt Trump leads by 14... But I think it would be unwise to discount the preponderance of evidence that he is, at the very least, ahead by some amount here.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #59 on: November 17, 2016, 08:52:09 pm »

Bump....

So here we have it folks....

I called out ME-02 as a district that reminded me a ton of a mix of Southern and Coastal Oregon, obviously minus Lane County....
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #60 on: November 18, 2016, 12:37:16 am »

I called that ME-AL would be closer than ME-02.  Not sure I would have called Texas being closer than ME-02, though.
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« Reply #61 on: November 18, 2016, 03:01:54 am »

I called that ME-AL would be closer than ME-02.  Not sure I would have called Texas being closer than ME-02, though.

Well, although I didn't claim that TX would be closer than ME-02, I did state on many occasions that the vote in Texas would be much closer than many expected on the forum.

Additionally, I tried to call out the Red Avatars regarding ME-02 on multiple occasions, including on this very thread:

ME-02 in many ways is similar to OR-04, although there is major difference in the presence of Eugene/Springfield, compared to ME-02 that is a bit more rural.

Both OR-04 and ME-02 have a large population of Working Class Whites, without higher degrees.

Both have a history of unionization of timber and paper mills in remote parts of the US.

Southern Oregon and Northern Maine have been abandoned by both major political parties for decades...

Southern Oregon has increasingly become a retiree location for working and lower-middle class retirees from throughout the state, as well as a few occasional California retirees in places like Medford and Grants Pass.

There are few decent paying jobs left for local residents, since most of the union mills have closed down, and retail and nursing jobs are all that is left.

Unlike Southern Oregon, tourism isn't that big a thing in ME-02.... it's way too far from metro areas of New England and the Northeast, and the vast forests of Northern Maine were long ago turned into corporate owned plantations now running 4th generation timber for pulp.

Obama won big up there, and actually overperformed Dem Pres results by huge margins in recent history.

Although the economy, employment, and wages might well be improving in major metro areas between '08 and '16, there is a huge swathe of small-town and working-class Americans that feel left behind.

I doubt that Trump is actually up +14 after Millennials break at the end of the day, and Maine proper is not at risk, but yes I think Trump will win this district by a decent margin against a Dem candidate that has done virtually nothing in her post-convention era to actually talk about the real issues that resonate very well with WWC voters, including ME-02.


and

Why are a few posters flipping out that ME-02 is looking like it will vote for Trump this year?

Reality is that there are many parts of the US that have been left behind, despite the
Obama recovery after the Great Recession.

Despite Obama's popularity, there are still regions in the country suffering economically, and they are doing a typical swing-voter thing and rejecting the party in power.

I would also add Nevada to the ME-02 mix...

As I warned Red avatars during the primary season, using Oregon State maps, Clinton's biggest collapse in the Primary season between '08 and '16 was in her strongest counties in state, namely in Southern and Eastern Oregon, as well as historically union blue collar counties like Linn and Columbia.

Clinton ran as a candidate in '08 that ran in the Democratic Primaries with a focus on jobs and the economy.

At this point, she has made no argument to White Working Class voters as to why she is any better than Donald Trump on Jobs and the Economy.

A Democratic Presidential candidate should never allow that to happen, unless they are trying to lose the election.
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