ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%

[Tender Branson]

Statewide:

40% Clinton
36% Trump
12% Johnson
  3% Stein

CD1:

50% Clinton
28% Trump

CD2:

48% Trump
34% Clinton

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http://www.pressherald.com/2016/09/25/maine-voters-appear-poised-to-render-historic-electoral-college-vote-split-in-2016-election

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

CD 2 must be the reason why Maine has a insane governor?

[Tender Branson]

The hard-working wood-chopping men up there absolutely seem to hate Hillary ...

[MT Treasurer]

I've always said that Maine would be more competitive than New Hampshire. Love it.

[JA]

Color me unsurprised. Maine has the lowest postsecondary attainment rate in the Northeast, the lowest minority population in the country, and is the most rural state. It's a perfect fit, especially the part of the state outside the Portland metro, for trending R.

[President Johnson]

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?

[Skye]

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?

It definitely leans republican at the very least.

[Erc]

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

[Xing]

This is possible in a Trumpslide, but I have trouble seeing ME-02 spontaneously becoming as Republican as a Plains state. It could get there eventually, but I think that Trump winning there by double digits is wishful thinking.

[KingSweden]

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?

It definitely leans republican at the very least.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

The polls we're seeing this season are giving us an extremely incohesive map.  If Clinton's losing ME-2 by fourteen points, Georgia and Arizona shouldn't be anywhere close to being in play.  If Iowa's going to Trump by nine points, he should be ahead in Pennsylvania by at least 2.  "Battleground Utah" should never have been a thought.

So conventional wisdom suggests we should be headed for either a total Trump blowout or a total Clinton blowout.  But we're not.

[john cage bubblegum]

LOL. So Maine-02 is safe/likely Republican now?

It definitely leans republican at the very least.

In this election, ME-02 really appears to have become a lean-R EV.  However, I am skeptical that it will stay that way in a normal race with a normal R candidate; Trump just seems like a perfect fit for the district. 

I still think in the future, if the Dem can win Maine by a decent margin, like at least 8 points, they'll win ME-02 also.   I could be wrong, but I want to see it happen for more than one cycle before I'm convinced this isn't temporary.

[Erc]

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

The polls we're seeing this season are giving us an extremely incohesive map.  If Clinton's losing ME-2 by fourteen points, Georgia and Arizona shouldn't be anywhere close to being in play.  If Iowa's going to Trump by nine points, he should be ahead in Pennsylvania by at least 2.  "Battleground Utah" should never have been a thought.

So conventional wisdom suggests we should be headed for either a total Trump blowout or a total Clinton blowout.  But we're not.

In a world where White Men without a College Degree are second only to Black voters as the most partisan demographic group in the country, we're going to get some strange results.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Now we know why Hillary's not defending it =D

[Antonio the Sixth]

A 36-point difference between districts? That's just ridiculous.

[Xing]

To make sense, this would mean that Hillary is ahead by 22 points in CD-1. That's just ridiculous.

That result, in and of itself, isn't hard to believe. Obama won ME-01 by almost that exact margin.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To make sense, this would mean that Hillary is ahead by 22 points in CD-1. That's just ridiculous.

That result, in and of itself, isn't hard to believe. Obama won ME-01 by almost that exact margin.

I meant the difference between the two. Edited to clarify.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm having a HARD time believing that Trump is 14 points ahead in ME-2 yet being over 20 points behind in ME-1

[ProudModerate2]

A 36-point difference between districts? That's just ridiculous.

Very strange indeed.
I would say ME-02 could be Lean-R (at this time), so it's hard to believe he leads by +14.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I'm having a HARD time believing that Trump is 14 points ahead in ME-2 yet being over 20 points behind in ME-1

I mean... ME-01 is basically the urban/well-educated district, while ME-02 might as well be a gerrymander for the Reps. I remember when I was putting together my "Hyper-polarized" map for Maine (don't judge me, I have a lot of spare time), it came out looking a lot like the actual map:



(For the record, Obama still won both in 2008 )

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone still think that ME-02 is more competitive than Maine at-large?

[jaichind]

What is interesting about this poll is that Trump is running ahead of the GOP congressional candidates in both CDs.

[Xing]

Does anyone still think that ME-02 is more competitive than Maine at-large?

Yes, because there's a chance that Hillary could win ME-02, although I'll admit that it seems unlikely right now. There's no way Trump is going to win the statewide vote.

[Erc]

There's no way a difference this large between the two districts can be explained by relative swings among different educational groups alone.  The two congressional districts are not that different; a good 40% of college-educated Mainers live in CD 2.

Getting a result like this just with educational swings would require college educated and non-college educated voters to each swing 30% in opposite directions, which clearly isn't happening.

This poll is off and/or there's something peculiar going on with CD 2. 

If the latter, what is it?  Has there been some political divide between the two CDs sparked by Paul LePage?  Something to do with the heroin epidemic?  Something going on in the French-Canadian community?  Some weird urban-rural divide?  Did Clinton do something to piss all of them off individually?

[DrScholl]

On November 8th, I expect ME-2 to vote as it does in most elections.