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Author Topic: ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%  (Read 5494 times)
Invisible Obama
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« Reply #25 on: September 25, 2016, 03:02:21 pm »

On November 8th, I expect ME-2 to vote as it does in most elections.
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« Reply #26 on: September 25, 2016, 03:14:20 pm »

How is Trump winning an electoral vote in Maine?  I would expect that after tomorrow night's debate, Trump will tank.  Hillary should get every Obama state from 2008, except maybe Indiana.

I suspect the sample size is probably too small to draw any conclusions.
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« Reply #27 on: September 25, 2016, 03:16:24 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.
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« Reply #28 on: September 25, 2016, 03:28:55 pm »

How is Trump winning an electoral vote in Maine?  I would expect that after tomorrow night's debate, Trump will tank.  Hillary should get every Obama state from 2008, except maybe Indiana.

I suspect the sample size is probably too small to draw any conclusions.

Somehow Trump has been leading in ME-2 for a while now...rural, white, less educated...it makes sense why he'd be doing well here.
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« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2016, 04:09:27 pm »

Populations that are insular and homogeneous tend to be easily coerced into buying populist and bigoted campaigns.  People in ME-02 are probably concerned that their jobs will be stolen by refugees, which is charming, because it assumes that anybody would want to live there if they weren't already born there.

These people had their chance to prove that they knew better.  Instead, they re-elected Paul LePage.  The invisible hand of the free market will be guiding ME-02 with its entrepreneurial heroin dealers and blue collar job losses for years to come.
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« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2016, 04:32:11 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.
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« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2016, 04:38:43 pm »

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Pretty simple, no?  Why would you vote for someone who repeatedly makes racist statements unless you lack exposure to people harmed by these comments?

As for elections having consequences, I should think that is a fairly uncontroversial sentiment.  Nobody is happy that rural Maine is suffering through difficult economic circumstances, and I would certainly propose they adopt an entirely different agenda to the one being enacted by their current government.  I'm not going to coddle a bunch of racists on a political forum because a few words are open to misinterpretation, or whatever is going on here.
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« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2016, 04:45:51 pm »

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Pretty simple, no?  Why would you vote for someone who repeatedly makes racist statements unless you lack exposure to people harmed by these comments?

Well, for one thing, areas, especially spooky scary non-urban areas, with higher minority populations statistically tend (to a certain point) to have more conservative whites...

Quote
As for elections having consequences, I should think that is a fairly uncontroversial sentiment.  Nobody is happy that rural Maine is suffering through difficult economic circumstances, and I would certainly propose they adopt an entirely different agenda to the one being enacted by their current government.  I'm not going to coddle a bunch of racists on a political forum because a few words are open to misinterpretation, or whatever is going on here.

Nobody is asking you to 'coddle' anybody.
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« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2016, 05:44:15 pm »

There's no way a difference this large between the two districts can be explained by relative swings among different educational groups alone.  The two congressional districts are not that different; a good 40% of college-educated Mainers live in CD 2.

Getting a result like this just with educational swings would require college educated and non-college educated voters to each swing 30% in opposite directions, which clearly isn't happening.

This poll is off and/or there's something peculiar going on with CD 2. 

If the latter, what is it?  Has there been some political divide between the two CDs sparked by Paul LePage?  Something to do with the heroin epidemic?  Something going on in the French-Canadian community?  Some weird urban-rural divide?  Did Clinton do something to piss all of them off individually?

1. Yuge cultural divide with Clinton.  I know you will say what about 2008/12, but Obama, particularly when combined with Biden could relate to Northern working class voters in a way that Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine simply can't.

2. This part of Maine and rural New England in general is ancestrally pacifist.  They were particularly turned off by Bush's antics in Iraq, and Trump has managed to turn that table on Clinton for the time being.  There's also a large population with French Canadian that likely resented Bush even more for antagonizing France.

3. There was also a substantial undecided between Sanders and Trump contingent in rural New England.  NH has the Boston suburbs to compensate, ME-02 doesn't because of the split.

4.  With regard to ME-01, you should be thinking of it more as an extension of Metro Boston with a hippie enclave population density wise.  So you've got some Rockefeller R's who retired there from Boston and NYC, along with a city that is basically a larger Burlington, VT.

5.  Clinton choosing Kaine over Warren or Sherrod Brown was a strategic blunder in these areas.  The senate is looking like it will either be GOP controlled from day 1 or up for grabs in VA in 2017.  Kaine has no selling point in the rural North.  He could have been quite helpful against Cruz, but the moderately religious Southern suburb transplants he's most helpful with were going to be in Clinton's column anyway against Trump.  

It will be very ironic when, in 2040, we look back on Obama as being the strongest Dem in a generation with the white working class.

Skills & Chance is on the money here....

ME-02 in many ways is similar to OR-04, although there is major difference in the presence of Eugene/Springfield, compared to ME-02 that is a bit more rural.

Both OR-04 and ME-02 have a large population of Working Class Whites, without higher degrees.

Both have a history of unionization of timber and paper mills in remote parts of the US.

Southern Oregon and Northern Maine have been abandoned by both major political parties for decades...

Southern Oregon has increasingly become a retiree location for working and lower-middle class retirees from throughout the state, as well as a few occasional California retirees in places like Medford and Grants Pass.

There are few decent paying jobs left for local residents, since most of the union mills have closed down, and retail and nursing jobs are all that is left.

Unlike Southern Oregon, tourism isn't that big a thing in ME-02.... it's way too far from metro areas of New England and the Northeast, and the vast forests of Northern Maine were long ago turned into corporate owned plantations now running 4th generation timber for pulp.

Obama won big up there, and actually overperformed Dem Pres results by huge margins in recent history.

Although the economy, employment, and wages might well be improving in major metro areas between '08 and '16, there is a huge swathe of small-town and working-class Americans that feel left behind.

I doubt that Trump is actually up +14 after Millennials break at the end of the day, and Maine proper is not at risk, but yes I think Trump will win this district by a decent margin against a Dem candidate that has done virtually nothing in her post-convention era to actually talk about the real issues that resonate very well with WWC voters, including ME-02.


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« Reply #34 on: September 25, 2016, 05:57:48 pm »

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Pretty simple, no?  Why would you vote for someone who repeatedly makes racist statements unless you lack exposure to people harmed by these comments?

Well, for one thing, areas, especially spooky scary non-urban areas, with higher minority populations statistically tend (to a certain point) to have more conservative whites...

Quote
As for elections having consequences, I should think that is a fairly uncontroversial sentiment.  Nobody is happy that rural Maine is suffering through difficult economic circumstances, and I would certainly propose they adopt an entirely different agenda to the one being enacted by their current government.  I'm not going to coddle a bunch of racists on a political forum because a few words are open to misinterpretation, or whatever is going on here.

Nobody is asking you to 'coddle' anybody.

Re point 1, that's generally due to a lack of integration, or in the South, longstanding cultural traditions. There is no question that the highest rates of xenophobia are in insular, lily white communities, as a lack of exposure can breed fear and ignorance.

As for coddling, what would the cavalcade of leftists jumping to the defense of racist voters suggest instead? I have to deal with racism and people making excuses for it everyday at work and I'm not going to be made to feel bad for an impolite post. I'm sorry if it offended you but I dislike your implication that I dislike these people or that I think they don't have valid interests. That doesn't mean I won't call out racism when I see it.
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« Reply #35 on: September 25, 2016, 06:14:23 pm »

I dislike your implication that I dislike these people or that I think they don't have valid interests.

You certainly gave the impression that you did.

I think the idea that the content of what Trump is saying is connecting on an intellectual or ethical level is a misinterpretation of his appeal in areas like northern Maine. That's not to say that people who are voting for him aren't morally culpable for their emotional, instinctual, and tribal reasons for doing so, because those are definitely emotions that one shouldn't give in to and instincts and tribalisms that indicate ugly things, but to imply that there's some malign metacognition going into this is wrong-headed. It seemed like that was what you were doing, mainly because you were deploying a lot of the same tropes as IceSpear, who absolutely is doing that.
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« Reply #36 on: September 25, 2016, 06:21:45 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!

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« Reply #37 on: September 25, 2016, 06:27:28 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?
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« Reply #38 on: September 25, 2016, 06:42:21 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?

Watch the name calling, because I'm not afraid to use the report button. With that said, the election has not occurred yet, so Trump has not over performed generic R anywhere. It's ignorant to create data based on an election that is never happened. But, I won't argue with you. On election day, I will praise Jesus when my predictions are correct. Let's revisit this post on November 9th.

That's...an odd argument/counterargument/defense/whatever, to say the least.

We have opinion polls of geographic areas such as this one. We also have crosstabs by demographics indicating that Trump polls very well among demographics like those that make up the population of said areas. We also have reams of breathless and to some extent self-fulfilling media prophecies about Trump's appeal to and 'common touch' with poor rural whites. All of which is more than enough to conclude that Trump is probably going to overperform generic R in certain areas until proven otherwise. I'm surprised that I have to point this out to somebody who's been on this forum for six years.

Data based on election results>data based on opinion polls>data based on assuming past trends will continue regardless of what opinion polls say.
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« Reply #39 on: September 25, 2016, 06:47:09 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?

Watch the name calling, because I'm not afraid to use the report button. With that said, the election has not occurred yet, so Trump has not over performed generic R anywhere. It's ignorant to create data based on an election that is never happened. But, I won't argue with you. On election day, I will praise Jesus when my predictions are correct. Let's revisit this post on November 9th.

That's...an odd argument/counterargument/defense/whatever, to say the least.

We have opinion polls of geographic areas such as this one. We also have crosstabs by demographics indicating that Trump polls very well among demographics like those that make up the population of said areas.

Data based on election results>data based on opinion polls>data based on assuming past trends will continue regardless of what opinion polls say.
Again, I don't see Trump winning ME-2 based on NORMAL REPUBLICANS losing it and I think a lot of people are way overestimating Trump like they did Todd Akin in the Missouri Senate race. It's called a difference of opinion. You think he'll win ME-2 big, I don't. Let's leave it at that.
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« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2016, 06:52:19 pm »

Hillary is really expanding the map.
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« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2016, 07:15:12 pm »

So in 2012, Romney did better in CD2 vs CD1 by 6.2%.

In this poll, he's doing better by 20%.

What's going on here?  Is there that wide of a gap in educational attainment between the two districts?  Is there some sort of 2016 version of the Canuck letter being circulated by Trump's goons?

The polls we're seeing this season are giving us an extremely incohesive map.  If Clinton's losing ME-2 by fourteen points, Georgia and Arizona shouldn't be anywhere close to being in play.  If Iowa's going to Trump by nine points, he should be ahead in Pennsylvania by at least 2.  "Battleground Utah" should never have been a thought.

So conventional wisdom suggests we should be headed for either a total Trump blowout or a total Clinton blowout.  But we're not.
and conventional wisdom makes sense this year because...? tired of people trying to extrapolate polls from one state onto other states 🙄
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« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2016, 07:25:46 pm »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?

Watch the name calling, because I'm not afraid to use the report button. With that said, the election has not occurred yet, so Trump has not over performed generic R anywhere. It's ignorant to create data based on an election that is never happened. But, I won't argue with you. On election day, I will praise Jesus when my predictions are correct. Let's revisit this post on November 9th.

That's...an odd argument/counterargument/defense/whatever, to say the least.

We have opinion polls of geographic areas such as this one. We also have crosstabs by demographics indicating that Trump polls very well among demographics like those that make up the population of said areas.

Data based on election results>data based on opinion polls>data based on assuming past trends will continue regardless of what opinion polls say.
Again, I don't see Trump winning ME-2 based on NORMAL REPUBLICANS losing it and I think a lot of people are way overestimating Trump like they did Todd Akin in the Missouri Senate race. It's called a difference of opinion. You think he'll win ME-2 big, I don't. Let's leave it at that.

I didn't say I thought he'd 'win it big'--I think he'll win it narrowly. All I said was that it's not 'hard to see' how he might win an area in which demographics would lead one to suspect he might do unusually well. If your issue is that polls showing him overperforming Generic R in areas like this might be overestimating him--which is reasonable enough, and which I'd love to agree with although I don't think I actually do--then you should have added that bit of information in the first place.
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« Reply #43 on: September 25, 2016, 07:27:34 pm »

Why are a few posters flipping out that ME-02 is looking like it will vote for Trump this year?

Reality is that there are many parts of the US that have been left behind, despite the
Obama recovery after the Great Recession.

Despite Obama's popularity, there are still regions in the country suffering economically, and they are doing a typical swing-voter thing and rejecting the party in power.

I would also add Nevada to the ME-02 mix...

As I warned Red avatars during the primary season, using Oregon State maps, Clinton's biggest collapse in the Primary season between '08 and '16 was in her strongest counties in state, namely in Southern and Eastern Oregon, as well as historically union blue collar counties like Linn and Columbia.

Clinton ran as a candidate in '08 that ran in the Democratic Primaries with a focus on jobs and the economy.

At this point, she has made no argument to White Working Class voters as to why she is any better than Donald Trump on Jobs and the Economy.

A Democratic Presidential candidate should never allow that to happen, unless they are trying to lose the election.
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« Reply #44 on: September 25, 2016, 07:28:28 pm »

haha why are people freaking out about this? this is a crosstab from a specious uni-polling firm lmao.
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« Reply #45 on: September 25, 2016, 07:37:43 pm »

haha why are people freaking out about this? this is a crosstab from a specious uni-polling firm lmao.

That's my point Dead Flags.... but Trump looks like he will win ME-02.
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« Reply #46 on: September 25, 2016, 07:42:49 pm »

haha why are people freaking out about this? this is a crosstab from a specious uni-polling firm lmao.

That's my point Dead Flags.... but Trump looks like he will win ME-02.

This is the evidence we have that points in that direction:
-a SUSA crosstab
-a wonky internal
-a UNH crosstab
-an Emerson crosstab
-a crosstab from some unknown firm with a bizarre name

SUSA is a solid polling firm but their crosstabs are notoriously terrible. I shouldn't have to explain why I don't trust the rest of these polls. Until we have more polling from reputable firms, rather than this assortment of trash, I don't buy that Trump is going to win ME-2 by more than 1-2 points. It's a tossup at worst.

Again: Clinton would compete here if her analytics team thought it was close. The alternative explanation (that it's a Trump blowout) would suggest a WV-sized trend to Trump. So I'm thinking that it's not close and that we've been mislead by junk polls. I might be wrong; we'll see.
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« Reply #47 on: September 25, 2016, 08:19:36 pm »

If they are confident about Colorado (as they seem to be), ME-2 doesn't matter for the electoral math one bit.
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« Reply #48 on: September 25, 2016, 08:23:24 pm »

People have to give credit to Obama for his achievement. He won Iowa twice convincing while Clinton is losing big there.

I think it shows how strong a candidate Obama was. It also shows how horrible a candidate Clinton is!
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« Reply #49 on: September 25, 2016, 08:23:50 pm »

THANK YOU PEROT-VOTING LUMBERJACKS
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