Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 20, 2019, 10:36:39 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14% (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%  (Read 5554 times)
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,787


View Profile
« on: September 26, 2016, 01:03:48 am »

haha why are people freaking out about this? this is a crosstab from a specious uni-polling firm lmao.

That's my point Dead Flags.... but Trump looks like he will win ME-02.

This is the evidence we have that points in that direction:
-a SUSA crosstab
-a wonky internal
-a UNH crosstab
-an Emerson crosstab
-a crosstab from some unknown firm with a bizarre name

SUSA is a solid polling firm but their crosstabs are notoriously terrible. I shouldn't have to explain why I don't trust the rest of these polls. Until we have more polling from reputable firms, rather than this assortment of trash, I don't buy that Trump is going to win ME-2 by more than 1-2 points. It's a tossup at worst.

Again: Clinton would compete here if her analytics team thought it was close. The alternative explanation (that it's a Trump blowout) would suggest a WV-sized trend to Trump. So I'm thinking that it's not close and that we've been mislead by junk polls. I might be wrong; we'll see.

I think they have determined that it is a Trump blowout and that the 1 EV is unlikely to matter.  In any event, we'll know something is up if Clinton starts campaigning in Portland.  Note that Clinton has campaigned and run ads in NE-02, so they must be pretty sanguine about that one.

Portland is not in ME-2....
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines