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| | | | |-+  ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14% (search mode)
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Author Topic: ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%  (Read 5564 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: September 25, 2016, 05:44:15 pm »

There's no way a difference this large between the two districts can be explained by relative swings among different educational groups alone.  The two congressional districts are not that different; a good 40% of college-educated Mainers live in CD 2.

Getting a result like this just with educational swings would require college educated and non-college educated voters to each swing 30% in opposite directions, which clearly isn't happening.

This poll is off and/or there's something peculiar going on with CD 2. 

If the latter, what is it?  Has there been some political divide between the two CDs sparked by Paul LePage?  Something to do with the heroin epidemic?  Something going on in the French-Canadian community?  Some weird urban-rural divide?  Did Clinton do something to piss all of them off individually?

1. Yuge cultural divide with Clinton.  I know you will say what about 2008/12, but Obama, particularly when combined with Biden could relate to Northern working class voters in a way that Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine simply can't.

2. This part of Maine and rural New England in general is ancestrally pacifist.  They were particularly turned off by Bush's antics in Iraq, and Trump has managed to turn that table on Clinton for the time being.  There's also a large population with French Canadian that likely resented Bush even more for antagonizing France.

3. There was also a substantial undecided between Sanders and Trump contingent in rural New England.  NH has the Boston suburbs to compensate, ME-02 doesn't because of the split.

4.  With regard to ME-01, you should be thinking of it more as an extension of Metro Boston with a hippie enclave population density wise.  So you've got some Rockefeller R's who retired there from Boston and NYC, along with a city that is basically a larger Burlington, VT.

5.  Clinton choosing Kaine over Warren or Sherrod Brown was a strategic blunder in these areas.  The senate is looking like it will either be GOP controlled from day 1 or up for grabs in VA in 2017.  Kaine has no selling point in the rural North.  He could have been quite helpful against Cruz, but the moderately religious Southern suburb transplants he's most helpful with were going to be in Clinton's column anyway against Trump.  

It will be very ironic when, in 2040, we look back on Obama as being the strongest Dem in a generation with the white working class.

Skills & Chance is on the money here....

ME-02 in many ways is similar to OR-04, although there is major difference in the presence of Eugene/Springfield, compared to ME-02 that is a bit more rural.

Both OR-04 and ME-02 have a large population of Working Class Whites, without higher degrees.

Both have a history of unionization of timber and paper mills in remote parts of the US.

Southern Oregon and Northern Maine have been abandoned by both major political parties for decades...

Southern Oregon has increasingly become a retiree location for working and lower-middle class retirees from throughout the state, as well as a few occasional California retirees in places like Medford and Grants Pass.

There are few decent paying jobs left for local residents, since most of the union mills have closed down, and retail and nursing jobs are all that is left.

Unlike Southern Oregon, tourism isn't that big a thing in ME-02.... it's way too far from metro areas of New England and the Northeast, and the vast forests of Northern Maine were long ago turned into corporate owned plantations now running 4th generation timber for pulp.

Obama won big up there, and actually overperformed Dem Pres results by huge margins in recent history.

Although the economy, employment, and wages might well be improving in major metro areas between '08 and '16, there is a huge swathe of small-town and working-class Americans that feel left behind.

I doubt that Trump is actually up +14 after Millennials break at the end of the day, and Maine proper is not at risk, but yes I think Trump will win this district by a decent margin against a Dem candidate that has done virtually nothing in her post-convention era to actually talk about the real issues that resonate very well with WWC voters, including ME-02.


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 07:27:34 pm »

Why are a few posters flipping out that ME-02 is looking like it will vote for Trump this year?

Reality is that there are many parts of the US that have been left behind, despite the
Obama recovery after the Great Recession.

Despite Obama's popularity, there are still regions in the country suffering economically, and they are doing a typical swing-voter thing and rejecting the party in power.

I would also add Nevada to the ME-02 mix...

As I warned Red avatars during the primary season, using Oregon State maps, Clinton's biggest collapse in the Primary season between '08 and '16 was in her strongest counties in state, namely in Southern and Eastern Oregon, as well as historically union blue collar counties like Linn and Columbia.

Clinton ran as a candidate in '08 that ran in the Democratic Primaries with a focus on jobs and the economy.

At this point, she has made no argument to White Working Class voters as to why she is any better than Donald Trump on Jobs and the Economy.

A Democratic Presidential candidate should never allow that to happen, unless they are trying to lose the election.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 07:37:43 pm »

haha why are people freaking out about this? this is a crosstab from a specious uni-polling firm lmao.

That's my point Dead Flags.... but Trump looks like he will win ME-02.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2016, 08:52:09 pm »

Bump....

So here we have it folks....

I called out ME-02 as a district that reminded me a ton of a mix of Southern and Coastal Oregon, obviously minus Lane County....
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2016, 03:01:54 am »

I called that ME-AL would be closer than ME-02.  Not sure I would have called Texas being closer than ME-02, though.

Well, although I didn't claim that TX would be closer than ME-02, I did state on many occasions that the vote in Texas would be much closer than many expected on the forum.

Additionally, I tried to call out the Red Avatars regarding ME-02 on multiple occasions, including on this very thread:

ME-02 in many ways is similar to OR-04, although there is major difference in the presence of Eugene/Springfield, compared to ME-02 that is a bit more rural.

Both OR-04 and ME-02 have a large population of Working Class Whites, without higher degrees.

Both have a history of unionization of timber and paper mills in remote parts of the US.

Southern Oregon and Northern Maine have been abandoned by both major political parties for decades...

Southern Oregon has increasingly become a retiree location for working and lower-middle class retirees from throughout the state, as well as a few occasional California retirees in places like Medford and Grants Pass.

There are few decent paying jobs left for local residents, since most of the union mills have closed down, and retail and nursing jobs are all that is left.

Unlike Southern Oregon, tourism isn't that big a thing in ME-02.... it's way too far from metro areas of New England and the Northeast, and the vast forests of Northern Maine were long ago turned into corporate owned plantations now running 4th generation timber for pulp.

Obama won big up there, and actually overperformed Dem Pres results by huge margins in recent history.

Although the economy, employment, and wages might well be improving in major metro areas between '08 and '16, there is a huge swathe of small-town and working-class Americans that feel left behind.

I doubt that Trump is actually up +14 after Millennials break at the end of the day, and Maine proper is not at risk, but yes I think Trump will win this district by a decent margin against a Dem candidate that has done virtually nothing in her post-convention era to actually talk about the real issues that resonate very well with WWC voters, including ME-02.


and

Why are a few posters flipping out that ME-02 is looking like it will vote for Trump this year?

Reality is that there are many parts of the US that have been left behind, despite the
Obama recovery after the Great Recession.

Despite Obama's popularity, there are still regions in the country suffering economically, and they are doing a typical swing-voter thing and rejecting the party in power.

I would also add Nevada to the ME-02 mix...

As I warned Red avatars during the primary season, using Oregon State maps, Clinton's biggest collapse in the Primary season between '08 and '16 was in her strongest counties in state, namely in Southern and Eastern Oregon, as well as historically union blue collar counties like Linn and Columbia.

Clinton ran as a candidate in '08 that ran in the Democratic Primaries with a focus on jobs and the economy.

At this point, she has made no argument to White Working Class voters as to why she is any better than Donald Trump on Jobs and the Economy.

A Democratic Presidential candidate should never allow that to happen, unless they are trying to lose the election.
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