ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14% (user search)
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  ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14% (search mode)
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Author Topic: ME-UNH/Portland Press Herald: Clinton+4, but Trump wins CD2 by 14%  (Read 13667 times)
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« on: September 25, 2016, 04:32:11 PM »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 04:45:51 PM »


Pretty simple, no?  Why would you vote for someone who repeatedly makes racist statements unless you lack exposure to people harmed by these comments?

Well, for one thing, areas, especially spooky scary non-urban areas, with higher minority populations statistically tend (to a certain point) to have more conservative whites...

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Nobody is asking you to 'coddle' anybody.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 06:14:23 PM »

I dislike your implication that I dislike these people or that I think they don't have valid interests.

You certainly gave the impression that you did.

I think the idea that the content of what Trump is saying is connecting on an intellectual or ethical level is a misinterpretation of his appeal in areas like northern Maine. That's not to say that people who are voting for him aren't morally culpable for their emotional, instinctual, and tribal reasons for doing so, because those are definitely emotions that one shouldn't give in to and instincts and tribalisms that indicate ugly things, but to imply that there's some malign metacognition going into this is wrong-headed. It seemed like that was what you were doing, mainly because you were deploying a lot of the same tropes as IceSpear, who absolutely is doing that.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 06:27:28 PM »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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Posts: 34,251


« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 06:42:21 PM »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?

Watch the name calling, because I'm not afraid to use the report button. With that said, the election has not occurred yet, so Trump has not over performed generic R anywhere. It's ignorant to create data based on an election that is never happened. But, I won't argue with you. On election day, I will praise Jesus when my predictions are correct. Let's revisit this post on November 9th.

That's...an odd argument/counterargument/defense/whatever, to say the least.

We have opinion polls of geographic areas such as this one. We also have crosstabs by demographics indicating that Trump polls very well among demographics like those that make up the population of said areas. We also have reams of breathless and to some extent self-fulfilling media prophecies about Trump's appeal to and 'common touch' with poor rural whites. All of which is more than enough to conclude that Trump is probably going to overperform generic R in certain areas until proven otherwise. I'm surprised that I have to point this out to somebody who's been on this forum for six years.

Data based on election results>data based on opinion polls>data based on assuming past trends will continue regardless of what opinion polls say.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,251


« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 07:25:46 PM »

It's hard to see Trump winning ME-2 when normal Republican candidates have failed to carry it.

No it's not.

Also, [Inks] you, Ebowed.

Brilliant argument. You sure told me, didn't you?!



Are you somehow still unaware that there are parts of the country in which Trump overperforms generic R, or are you just ignorant enough about the rural Northeast to not realize that northern Maine is one of them? If it's the latter, why would you comment on this?

Watch the name calling, because I'm not afraid to use the report button. With that said, the election has not occurred yet, so Trump has not over performed generic R anywhere. It's ignorant to create data based on an election that is never happened. But, I won't argue with you. On election day, I will praise Jesus when my predictions are correct. Let's revisit this post on November 9th.

That's...an odd argument/counterargument/defense/whatever, to say the least.

We have opinion polls of geographic areas such as this one. We also have crosstabs by demographics indicating that Trump polls very well among demographics like those that make up the population of said areas.

Data based on election results>data based on opinion polls>data based on assuming past trends will continue regardless of what opinion polls say.
Again, I don't see Trump winning ME-2 based on NORMAL REPUBLICANS losing it and I think a lot of people are way overestimating Trump like they did Todd Akin in the Missouri Senate race. It's called a difference of opinion. You think he'll win ME-2 big, I don't. Let's leave it at that.

I didn't say I thought he'd 'win it big'--I think he'll win it narrowly. All I said was that it's not 'hard to see' how he might win an area in which demographics would lead one to suspect he might do unusually well. If your issue is that polls showing him overperforming Generic R in areas like this might be overestimating him--which is reasonable enough, and which I'd love to agree with although I don't think I actually do--then you should have added that bit of information in the first place.
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