CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO (user search)
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  CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Tight race in CO - Clinton up in VA, Trump ahead in MO  (Read 4496 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: September 25, 2016, 11:08:11 AM »


Colorado, CBS/YouGov, 9/21-9/13
Not Sure votes
White - 11%, Hispanic - 12%

Colorado Exit Poll 2012 - White 78% | Hispanic 14%

White 78% x Not sure 11% = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x Not sure 12% = 1.68%

and red avatars are thinking, oh! oh! oh! Hispanics! Hillary has bigger space to expand.

lol

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StatesPoll
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 12:01:56 PM »


It seems Red Avatars noticed 12% of Hispanic LV answered 'Not Sure'(Undecided)
Meanwhile 11% of white LV answered 'Not sure'

Colorado 2012 exit Poll - White 78%  Hispanic 14%

so,
White 78% x 11%(undecided) = 8.58%
Hispanic 14% x 12%(undecided) = 1.68%

Even consider Hillay has higher +% margins of Hispanics.
It looks TRUMP has bigger spaces to expand than hillary.

This Poll:
White - TRUMP 43% | Hillary 37% | Johnson 6% | Stein 2% |
Hispanic - Hillary 46% | TRUMP 20% | Johnson 9% | Stein 3%
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StatesPoll
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 12:04:45 PM »


Virginia Poll - undersampled White Evagelicals horribly (Yougov already did several times of FL/OH  polls.)

2012 Exit Poll(VA): White Evangelicals 23%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/VA/president/
CBS/YouGov 9/21-9/23: White Evangelicals 13.65%

adjust the poll as 2012 Exit Poll Ratios

1) Hillary: White Evan(23%)x14% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x50%= 41.72%
2) TRUMP: White Evan(23%)x69% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x32%= 40.51%
3) Johnson: White Evan(23%)x4% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x8%= 7.08%
4) Stein: White Evan(23%)x0% + Non-White-Evan(77%)x1%= 0.77%

Hillary +1.21%  Tongue

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