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Author Topic: Utah - Salt Lake City Tribune/Hinkley/Dan Jones: Trump +9  (Read 1272 times)
Seriously?
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« on: September 25, 2016, 12:57:00 pm »

Salt Lake City Tribune/Hinkley/Dan Jones 9/12-19 Trump +9
Trump 34
Clinton 25
Johnson 13
McMullin 12
Stein 1
Undecided 8

820 LV, September 12-19, 2016; MOE +/- 3.4%

Link: http://www.sltrib.com/home/4390081-155/new-tribune-hinckley-poll-trump-leads-clinton?page=1
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 01:24:07 pm by Seriously? »Logged
NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 12:59:30 pm »

Salt Lake City Tribune/Hinkley/Dan Jones 9/12-19 Trump +9
Trump 34
Clinton 25
Johnson 13
McMullin 12
Stein 9
Undecided 8

820 LV, September 12-19, 2016; MOE +/- 3.4%

Link: http://www.sltrib.com/home/4390081-155/new-tribune-hinckley-poll-trump-leads-clinton?page=1

#BattlegroundUtah is back!!!

All Clinton needs to do is win over the Stein voters, and the race is a tie.... Wink

Actually just went and pulled the article and it looks like Stein is only at 1%, so you might have a typo up above.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 01:02:27 pm by NOVA Green »Logged

Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 01:05:03 pm »

rofl lmao
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 01:06:37 pm »

I think third party votes may actually be like 20% of the vote here. Trump may struggle to break 50% even though he'll handily beat Clinton.
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 01:09:09 pm »

Wish we had the poll PDF, because it would be awesome if this poll actually has a higher share for "Other" than either Clinton or Trump.
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 01:10:13 pm »

I think third party votes may actually be like 20% of the vote here. Trump may struggle to break 50% even though he'll handily beat Clinton.

The broad consensus of polling Utah suggests that Trump will carry the state, very possibly by double-digits, but without breaking 40%.
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2016, 01:10:30 pm »

Obama or Sanders would have made this actually competative competative.
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2016, 01:17:59 pm »

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona Tongue)
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 01:24:58 pm »

#BattlegroundUtah is back!!!

All Clinton needs to do is win over the Stein voters, and the race is a tie.... Wink

Actually just went and pulled the article and it looks like Stein is only at 1%, so you might have a typo up above.
Thanks. Not so much a typo as they lumped Stein and Undecided together in their dopey graphic. I fixed it.
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2016, 01:37:47 pm »

That's about right
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2016, 01:59:50 pm »

If we assume that McMullin does in fact get 12% of Utah, that would give him about 122,000 votes in Utah (assuming the 2012 population, which may not be accurate). If you take that nationwide, that gives about 0.09% of the nationwide popular vote. Figure another 20,000 from Idaho and maybe another 100,000 nationwide, and McMuffin could get a whopping 0.18% nationwide.
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2016, 02:29:14 pm »

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona Tongue)

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate (Huh).

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2016, 09:09:46 pm »

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona Tongue)

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate (Huh).

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...

McMullin isn't on the ballot in NV or AZ, unfortunately.
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2016, 09:25:49 pm »

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona Tongue)

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate (Huh).

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...

McMullin isn't on the ballot in NV or AZ, unfortunately.

So at most 1% on the margins towards Lib or the case of Nevada Non-of-the-above???

From what I understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, Mormons believe in voting, regardless of if their votes are for 3rd party candidates.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2016, 09:27:34 pm by NOVA Green »Logged

Fubart Solman
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2016, 10:12:22 pm »

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona Tongue)

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate (Huh).

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...

McMullin isn't on the ballot in NV or AZ, unfortunately.

So at most 1% on the margins towards Lib or the case of Nevada Non-of-the-above???

From what I understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, Mormons believe in voting, regardless of if their votes are for 3rd party candidates.

Not Mormon either, but my understanding is that they have a strong belief in doing their civic duties, including voting.

NOTA in Nevada will be interesting to watch. Lincoln County, NV (which looks like a backwards Utah) should be especially interesting, as it has one of the highest concentrations of Mormons in Nevada.
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2016, 11:49:41 pm »

Well, we all know that Trump will likely win Utah by +10, so obviously this state is not in play.

But, being a bunch of political geeks on the forum, we also know that this state will be much closer than usual, as a result of defection of Mormon voters disgusted by what they see as political rhetoric that scapegoats ethnic and religious minorities.

I was hoping we would get some of our Red and Blue avatars from the great state of Utah to jump in, and provide their opinions from what they are seeing on the ground.

Clinton will likely win SLC and the County, that is majority non-Mormon, but what will happen in places like Provo, and heavily Mormon parts of the state???

Any reports from our Atlas posters from Utah that actually have their boots on the ground?

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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2016, 11:18:14 am »

  Still think it would be hilarious if somehow the vote for deep state Mcmullin surges and Hillary thereby wins the state, but still loses the election.
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2016, 01:22:47 pm »

Well, we all know that Trump will likely win Utah by +10, so obviously this state is not in play.

But, being a bunch of political geeks on the forum, we also know that this state will be much closer than usual, as a result of defection of Mormon voters disgusted by what they see as political rhetoric that scapegoats ethnic and religious minorities.

I was hoping we would get some of our Red and Blue avatars from the great state of Utah to jump in, and provide their opinions from what they are seeing on the ground.

Clinton will likely win SLC and the County, that is majority non-Mormon, but what will happen in places like Provo, and heavily Mormon parts of the state???

Any reports from our Atlas posters from Utah that actually have their boots on the ground?



I will laugh if McMullin or Johnson pulls 2nd place in Utah County or some ultra Republican place.
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2016, 03:47:25 pm »

New Poll: Utah President by Dan Jones on 2016-09-19

Summary: D: 25%, R: 34%, I: 34%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2016, 06:48:58 pm »

Seems to be entered in wrong on the polls page... Says a tie.
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« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2016, 06:50:41 pm »

Seems to be entered in wrong on the polls page... Says a tie.

It's not wrong.  It's a tie between Trump and "Other."  That's just how the software handles counting third parties.
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« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2016, 07:02:14 pm »

The only thing I want out of UT, is it not being immediately called when the polls close.
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« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2016, 07:50:14 pm »

The only thing I want out of UT, is it not being immediately called when the polls close.
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