Utah - Salt Lake City Tribune/Hinkley/Dan Jones: Trump +9

[NOVA Green]

Salt Lake City Tribune/Hinkley/Dan Jones 9/12-19 Trump +9
Trump 34
Clinton 25
Johnson 13
McMullin 12
Stein 9
Undecided 8

820 LV, September 12-19, 2016; MOE +/- 3.4%

Link: http://www.sltrib.com/home/4390081-155/new-tribune-hinckley-poll-trump-leads-clinton?page=1

#BattlegroundUtah is back!!!

All Clinton needs to do is win over the Stein voters, and the race is a tie....

Actually just went and pulled the article and it looks like Stein is only at 1%, so you might have a typo up above.

[NOVA Green]

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona )

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate ().

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...

[NOVA Green]

Anyone else think that Trump's weakness with Mormons might hurt him in a certain other state that he he actually could lose? (Relax, guys, I'm talking about Arizona )

It might hurt him a point or two on the margins in AZ, considering that Mormon's are 4% of the state and maybe 5-6% of the electorate ().

We haven't seen much recent poll from AZ, but if we take the weighted Marist poll and the Insights West poll, it's looking like the state is +4-6 Trump potentially based upon these orgs LV screen models.

I can't see it making a difference unless it comes down to a narrow race, in which case other demographics Latino voters, Millennials, Senior SoCal retirees, etc are playing a major role.

It might make the difference in NV however, if recent polls are to be believed and it's basically a neck-and-neck race there...

McMullin isn't on the ballot in NV or AZ, unfortunately.

So at most 1% on the margins towards Lib or the case of Nevada Non-of-the-above???

From what I understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, Mormons believe in voting, regardless of if their votes are for 3rd party candidates.

[NOVA Green]

Well, we all know that Trump will likely win Utah by +10, so obviously this state is not in play.

But, being a bunch of political geeks on the forum, we also know that this state will be much closer than usual, as a result of defection of Mormon voters disgusted by what they see as political rhetoric that scapegoats ethnic and religious minorities.

I was hoping we would get some of our Red and Blue avatars from the great state of Utah to jump in, and provide their opinions from what they are seeing on the ground.

Clinton will likely win SLC and the County, that is majority non-Mormon, but what will happen in places like Provo, and heavily Mormon parts of the state???

Any reports from our Atlas posters from Utah that actually have their boots on the ground?

[NOVA Green]

The only thing I want out of UT, is it not being immediately called when the polls close.