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Author Topic: Breitbart/Gravis: Trump +4 in CO, +1 in OH  (Read 1626 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: September 25, 2016, 06:58:14 pm »

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/09/25/exclusive-breitbartgravis-polls-trump-takes-lead-colorado-maintains-lead-ohio/

CO:

Trump 41
Clinton 37
Johnson 6
Stein 6

OH:

Trump 43
Clinton 42
Johnson 6
Stein 1

Take CO with a LARGE grain of salt; they have Bennett trailing by 2 (45-43).  They have Portman up 44-36 in OH.
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2016, 06:59:14 pm »

lmao
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 07:00:11 pm »

LOL at Glenn up in CO.
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 07:00:18 pm »

Clinton is surging in Ohio! Tongue
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2016, 07:00:30 pm »

So Trump's only running 2 points ahead of Glenn? Great news!
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2016, 07:00:55 pm »

Lol Breitbart
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2016, 07:01:12 pm »

Gravis is junk. News at 11
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2016, 07:04:32 pm »

So Clinton is up in both states. Good to know.
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2016, 07:09:15 pm »

So Hillary will do eight points worse in CO than the nation as a whole, and CO will be three points to the right of OH? Riiiiiight.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2016, 07:13:51 pm »

How on earth is CO to the right of Ohio
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2016, 07:18:28 pm »

I was gonna panic but until I seen Breitbart lol.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2016, 07:21:27 pm »

i am not sure which of the numbers are stranger.

regarding the other polls i guess the difference between OH and CO itself...but slowly i am getting a little bit worried about CO. all logical points of information advice a clear clinton win but if trump really should...however...edge out a victory, i think he becomes president.

and it would be madness, since the hyper-professional and much better staffed clinton campaign stopped campaigning themselves in july or so.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2016, 07:22:37 pm »

How on earth is CO to the right of Ohio

Yeah, Trump +4 in OH and Trump +1 in CO would be a bit more plausible.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2016, 07:25:25 pm »

And the crosstabs are too GOP friendly. This poll is a outlier.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2016, 07:30:35 pm »

Sounds, smells, and looks like a junk poll to me....]

I'll buy Trump being up in OH by 3-5, and I think CO is closer than many Dem avatars on the forum choose to believe, but yes.... these results don't male much sense at all, even assuming a Trump lean in OH and CO being closer than expected.
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dspNY
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2016, 07:51:18 pm »

Ohio sounds right IMO. Colorado poll is complete junk
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heatcharger
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2016, 08:15:32 pm »

I bet Republican Clear Politics will include this in their polling average to give Trump the lead.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2016, 08:27:14 pm »

RCP may generally be a site with a lite center-conservative bias but imho sean trende generally knows what he is doing.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2016, 09:50:06 pm »

Ohio looks reasonable, but even bad pollsters like Gravis sometimes trip on accurate looking numbers.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2016, 10:30:39 pm »

>Gravis
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2016, 12:02:22 am »

Liberal's Hero, Nate Silver's adjustment is same as poll results.
Colorado, Breitbart/Gravis 9/22-9/23: TRUMP +4%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/colorado/#plus  

Ohio, Breitbart/Gravis 9/22-9/23: TRUMP +1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/#plus  



= Colorado Freiwal is collapsed.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2016, 01:13:37 am by StatesPoll »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2016, 12:04:13 am »

Gravis has been quite reasonable so far, despite polling for Breitbart.

But the CO poll looks like a big outlier ...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2016, 12:47:45 am »

So I noticed ExtremeRepublican only put the Colorado poll in the database. Wonder why.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2016, 12:51:08 am »

Gravis has been quite reasonable so far, despite polling for Breitbart.

But the CO poll looks like a big outlier ...

CO could well be Clinton's graveyard.....

Not seeing many polls showing her up these days in CO....
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2016, 01:08:40 am »

Gravis has been quite reasonable so far, despite polling for Breitbart.

But the CO poll looks like a big outlier ...

CO could well be Clinton's graveyard.....

Not seeing many polls showing her up these days in CO....

The path for Trump in CO is still very difficult, however. Gardner won by less than 2 points in 2014 despite running against a terrible opponent (who was a better fit for the state than Clinton, though). Can he really outperform Romney by that much in the Denver suburbs? I'm still not sure whether CO is the most likely freiwal state to go for Trump or whether he has a better chance in WI or maybe PA.
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