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  MI-Mitchell: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: MI-Mitchell: Clinton +5  (Read 1113 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: September 28, 2016, 05:27:31 pm »
« edited: September 28, 2016, 05:34:19 pm by HillOfANight »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

Clinton 49 (47)
Trump 44 (42)

Clinton 46 (45)
Trump 41 (39)
Johnson 8 (7)
Stein 1 (1)
Undecided 4 [8]

Debate winner
Clinton 51
Trump 25

White
Clinton 44
Trump 48

Black
Clinton 75
Trump 20 Huh
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2016, 05:28:18 pm »

Something is up with Michigan this year. It just doesn't want to give Hillary a big win.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2016, 05:32:43 pm »

^^^ Interesting how you didn't immediately note this is a Republican pollster. That usually triggers you when it's a D firm.

Anyways Michigan polls suck, so if this is accurate it's on accident.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2016, 05:37:47 pm »

Something is up with Michigan this year. It just doesn't want to give Hillary a big win.

Obama was only up by 4% (RCP) in 2012 and ended up winning by 9.5%.

Also this is a one-day landline only poll.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2016, 05:49:44 pm »

Something is up with Michigan this year. It just doesn't want to give Hillary a big win.

Although Trumps "economic message" seems to be tailor made for industrial MidWest states in the Heartlands, I still believe at the end of the day, she will win by a comfortable margin, regardless of the final national results.

Dwarven Dragon mentioned the one-day landline only poll, and like in most other states Clinton is struggling with Millennial voters, but it seems clear she has more room to grow in MI than Trump does at this point.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2016, 05:50:44 pm »

Hillary will win Michigan. News at 11.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2016, 05:57:39 pm »

These polls give me the confidence to say that she'll win Michigan by at least as much as Obama did in 2012.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2016, 06:17:44 pm »

^^^ Interesting how you didn't immediately note this is a Republican pollster. That usually triggers you when it's a D firm.

Anyways Michigan polls suck, so if this is accurate it's on accident.

The poll was done by Mitchell Research for Fox 2 Detroit.  It is not an internal.  It is a public poll by another one of the Michigan-only crap pollsters.  Do we need a disclaimer for every PPP poll that they are a Democratic pollster, even when not publishing internals?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2016, 06:21:44 pm »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 06:24:45 pm by Maxwell »

^^^ Interesting how you didn't immediately note this is a Republican pollster. That usually triggers you when it's a D firm.

Anyways Michigan polls suck, so if this is accurate it's on accident.

The poll was done by Mitchell Research for Fox 2 Detroit.  It is not an internal.  It is a public poll by another one of the Michigan-only crap pollsters.  Do we need a disclaimer for every PPP poll that they are a Democratic pollster, even when not publishing internals?

Don't people normally put a PPP (D) anyways?

btw PPP polls have been fairly generous to Trump among serious pollsters.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2016, 06:22:52 pm »

^^^ Interesting how you didn't immediately note this is a Republican pollster. That usually triggers you when it's a D firm.

Anyways Michigan polls suck, so if this is accurate it's on accident.

The poll was done by Mitchell Research for Fox 2 Detroit.  It is not an internal.  It is a public poll by another one of the Michigan-only crap pollsters.  Do we need a disclaimer for every PPP poll that they are a Democratic pollster, even when not publishing internals?

Why do you say that PPP is a Democratic pollster?  Although they certainly had a Democratic lean several years ago, they've recently been close to the mean or slightly R-positive.  538 has them at R+0.2.

(Hmm, is R-positive a Vulcan blood type?)
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2016, 06:26:23 pm »
« Edited: September 28, 2016, 06:34:52 pm by cinyc »

Why do you say that PPP is a Democratic pollster?  Although they certainly had a Democratic lean several years ago, they've recently been close to the mean or slightly R-positive.  538 has them at R+0.2.

(Hmm, is R-positive a Vulcan blood type?)

When doing non-partisan polling, I wouldn't.  But if Mitchell Research is supposedly a Republican pollster (presumably) due to their private clients, then PPP is a Democratic pollster because their private clients are almost exclusively Democrats and Democratic-leaning advocacy groups.

Don't people normally put a PPP (D) anyways?

btw PPP polls have been fairly generous to Trump among serious pollsters.

No - perhaps unless they are conducting a poll for a Democratic-leaning advocacy group or candidate.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2016, 06:45:07 pm »

^^^ Interesting how you didn't immediately note this is a Republican pollster. That usually triggers you when it's a D firm.

Anyways Michigan polls suck, so if this is accurate it's on accident.

The poll was done by Mitchell Research for Fox 2 Detroit.  It is not an internal.  It is a public poll by another one of the Michigan-only crap pollsters.  Do we need a disclaimer for every PPP poll that they are a Democratic pollster, even when not publishing internals?

Don't people normally put a PPP (D) anyways?

btw PPP polls have been fairly generous to Trump among serious pollsters.
No. They don't. And they should every time that PPP does a poll for a left-leaning advocacy group as opposed to a regular PPP poll.

This is a public poll for a TV station, not an internal. It should be treated as such, even if it is one of Michigan's numerous sucktastic pollsters.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2016, 06:46:29 pm »

^^^ Interesting how you didn't immediately note this is a Republican pollster. That usually triggers you when it's a D firm.

Anyways Michigan polls suck, so if this is accurate it's on accident.

The poll was done by Mitchell Research for Fox 2 Detroit.  It is not an internal.  It is a public poll by another one of the Michigan-only crap pollsters.  Do we need a disclaimer for every PPP poll that they are a Democratic pollster, even when not publishing internals?

Why do you say that PPP is a Democratic pollster?  Although they certainly had a Democratic lean several years ago, they've recently been close to the mean or slightly R-positive.  538 has them at R+0.2.

(Hmm, is R-positive a Vulcan blood type?)
There are two types of PPP polls. The ones they do for themselves and the ones they do for left-leaning advocacy groups. They should be labeled accordingly. It's one of my pet peeves on here that they aren't, 90% of the time.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2016, 07:45:08 pm »

the house bias is not the "problem"...ppp IS a left-leaning pollster, separate from whatever results they are publishing.

in 2012 they have been closer than most if my memory serves me.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2016, 10:42:38 pm »

Lol and 538 adjusted this to Clinton +4, lol
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2016, 10:43:45 pm »

Lol and 538 adjusted this to Clinton +4, lol

I've come to the conclusion that he messed up the primaries so badly that now he needs to over-compensate by adjusting every poll in Trumps favor.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2016, 10:44:08 pm »

Something is up with Michigan this year. It just doesn't want to give Hillary a big win.
Clinton will win by double digits if Trump wins whites by only 4.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2016, 12:23:43 am »

Something is up with Michigan this year. It just doesn't want to give Hillary a big win.
Clinton will win by double digits if Trump wins whites by only 4.

and this red avatar pretends didn't see the results of Black voters Wink

Mitchell,9/27.  Page 12
Black(259 LV): Hillary 74.9% | TRUMP 18.5% | Johnson 4%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

Img
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2016, 12:41:51 am »

It's just a silly to think that Trump will only win the white vote by 4 as to think he can get nearly 20% of the AA vote.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2016, 12:46:00 am »

Mitchell Poll
Whites 83%
African-Americans 13%

CNN Exit Poll 2012
White 77%
African-Americans 16%

It looks like we have another modeling issue/dispute. Is this poll plausible? I don't think so but we'll find out on election day!
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2016, 01:10:54 am »

It's just a silly to think that Trump will only win the white vote by 4 as to think he can get nearly 20% of the AA vote.


for TRUMP it's ok to lose Michigan.
But if he gets 18% of Blacks in most swing states. election is over Wink

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2016, 01:34:47 am »
« Edited: September 29, 2016, 01:44:16 am by pbrower2a »

Mitchell Poll
Whites 83%
African-Americans 13%

CNN Exit Poll 2012
White 77%
African-Americans 16%

It looks like we have another modeling issue/dispute. Is this poll plausible? I don't think so but we'll find out on election day!

Michigan Democrats usually have strong get-out-the-vote drives that slam the door hard on Republicans in November. Michigan typically looks within contention until Election Day.
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