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| | | | |-+  CO/NC/PA/FL PPP: Bennet +10, Rubio +7, Burr +2, McGinty +5
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Author Topic: CO/NC/PA/FL PPP: Bennet +10, Rubio +7, Burr +2, McGinty +5  (Read 1639 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: September 29, 2016, 06:23:09 am »

Colorado
44% Michael Bennet (D, inc.)
34% Darryl Glenn (R)
4% Lily Tang Williams (L)
2% Am Menconi (G)
1% Bill Hammons (United Party of Colorado)

Florida
42% Marco Rubio (R, inc.)
35% Patrick Murphy (D)
9% Paul Stanton (L)

North Carolina
41% Richard Burr (R, inc.)
39% Deborah Ross (D)
6% Sean Haugh (L)

Pennsylvania
40% Katie McGinty (D)
35% Pat Toomey (R, inc.)
9% Edward Clifford (L)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_BattlegroundStates_92916.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2016, 06:49:44 am »

They made a Rubio vs Murphy poll and it became Rubio+3 for the record.
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Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 06:52:47 am »

They made a Rubio vs Murphy poll and it became Rubio+3 for the record.

2-way numbers:

Bennet +10 (50/40)
Rubio +3 (47/44)
Burr +4 (46/42)
McGinty +2 (44/42)

Still a very good poll for Rubio, considering that PPP is the only pollster that has always shown weak numbers for him.
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2016, 07:13:05 am »

The libertarian is not getting 9% in the FL senate race lol. The two way numbers are the ones to believe.
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2016, 08:10:44 am »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2016-09-28

Summary: D: 44%, R: 34%, I: 7%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2016, 10:14:02 am »

The 2-way numbers are also more believable for Pennsylvania. Can't see the Libertarian getting 9% there either.
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2016, 11:06:40 am »

The two-way numbers generally look more believable.
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2016, 11:18:14 am »

These are some yuge numbers for random Senate Libs that probably have zero name recognition.  I don't think they're going to get that high, but I don't think we can assume they'll get nothing either.  Could have an impact on races.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2016, 11:22:13 am by Siren »Logged

Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2016, 12:56:50 pm »

disappointing numbers, but nevertheless it's nice to see yet another poll confirm McGinty-mentum. Disappointing to see Ross down but I can live with it being a very close race.



Don't get me started on how gross it is Rubio is leading.
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2016, 01:39:35 pm »

I can confidently say Rubio will lose. That's still Lean D. Disappointing numbers in NC however. I thought Burr was despised enough and could be tied to McCrory enough to sneak out the win.
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2016, 02:36:23 pm »

The libertarian is not getting 9% in the FL senate race lol. The two way numbers are the ones to believe.

I could see Florida as being a state where there is a constituency of people (former Beruff supporters/Trump in the presidential primary) who oppose Rubio but cannot bring themselves to vote for Murphy ultimately ending up voting for Stanton. It'll be interesting to compare the patterns of Johnson and Stanton support afterward -- I have a feeling they'll be totally different, since they're drawing from different disaffected voters.

Anyway, Florida is Likely R and fast approaching Safe. Louisiana and Missouri are all better choices for the Democrats to target for a long-shot pickup (not to mention North Carolina or any of the Final Five, but those aren't really long-shots).
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2016, 02:53:00 pm »

Hagan was like this back in '14. Therefore, it ain't over for Ross yet.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2016, 04:03:38 pm »

So what's the reason for such big 3rd party numbers? That voters hate their senate candidates just like they hate Clinton and Trump?
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2016, 05:16:06 pm »

Good news for McGinty, not so much for Bennett and Murphy
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2016, 06:48:15 pm »

The 2-way numbers are also more believable for Pennsylvania. Can't see the Libertarian getting 9% there either.

Actually Libertarians and Constitution candidates sometimes over-perform there statewide (same in NC).
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2016, 03:30:33 am »

Good for McGinty, Hassan could win NH too. If Dem retain NV, Senate is very likely to turn blue with IL, WI almost surely going Dem this turn. There is still NC, MO, FL, OH ranging from a gettable to hard races all of which are winnable if Clinton takes a 3-4% GE lead!
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2016, 03:39:58 pm »

Ross trailing behind Hillary by 4 is pretty disappointing. Otherwise, seems about right.
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