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Author Topic: India Assembly elections 2017- UP,Punjab,Uttarakhand,Manipur,Goa,HP,Gujarat  (Read 28736 times)
jaichind
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« on: September 29, 2016, 02:42:37 pm »
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UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Manipur will be held in early 2017 with Goa in the middle of 2017 while HP and Gujarat will be held in late 2017.  Will post more information soon.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2016, 10:12:56 am by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2016, 04:44:22 pm »
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Punjab AAP is eating itself right now, pretty brutal.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 05:13:12 pm »
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Punjab AAP is eating itself right now, pretty brutal.

punjabi_politics.txt
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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 09:42:57 pm »
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ECI announces that Uttar Pradesh could have a seven-phase election while Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur could witness single-day polling in simultaneous elections likely to be conducted by the in February-March 2017.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2016, 09:50:56 pm »
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In UP the ruling SP is headed for a split based on a family feud.  SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son and UP CM Akhilish Yadav are having a feud around Mulayam Singh Yadav's brother and Akhilish Yadav's uncle Shipav Singh Yadav who was recently made by Mulayam Singh Yadav to be the head of SP's UP branch and who is in the UP cabinet.  This morning  Shipav Singh Yadav was ejected from the the UP cabinet while cousin of  Mulayam Singh Yadav  and SP MP Ram Gopal Yadav was expelled from the SP for backing Akhilish Yadav to take over leadership of SP.

It seems the core issue is that  Shipav Singh Yadav seems to control the ministries that has the most pork to distribute and Akhilish Yadav had decided that  Shipav Singh Yadav has to go so he can get his hands on the pork.  Of course doing so has run afoul of his father and supreme leader of the SP  Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Not sure what is going to take place but it could be that SP could split down the middle between father and son.  CM Akhilish Yadav and his uncle Ram Gopal Yadav might split from SP and form his own party and potentially ally with INC.

SP family tree
« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 09:53:04 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 10:08:59 pm »
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Speaking of UP CM Akhilish Yadav, his wife Dimple Yadav, who is also a SP MP is considered one of the most if not the most attractive Indian woman politician.  

« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 10:11:00 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2016, 07:50:02 am »
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btw is there a reason AAP is so strong in Punjab (it seems to have stayed in front, even after some kind of insane Kejriwal rampage)?
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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2016, 07:26:23 am »
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Election dates not set but looks like will be in Feb Mar of 2017.  Of all these states the biggest and most important would be UP.  So it might be useful to start with UP background.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2016, 07:46:48 am »
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UP politics since the early 1990s has been a 4 way battle between BJP, SP BSP and INC.  RLD (which one can argue is a SP Jat splinter) and AP (which is a BSP OBC splinter) are have some influence and monkey branch from one of the 4 blocs to another along with various rebels and splinters.

UP politics are caste dominated.  There are 4 major community blocs:  Upper Castes (~20% of the pop), OBC (~40% of the pop), Dalits (~20% of the pop), and Muslims (~20% of the pop)

Upper Castes traditionally voted INC but now has go over to BJP.  Upper Caste tends to be mobilized behind BJP if there are communal conflict with Muslims but in absence of that are suspicious of the encroachment on their power by OBCs and could defect to INC or BSP if they see OBCs dominating BJP.

OBCs tend to split their vote between BJP and SP with Yadavs going to SP and non-Yadavs going to BJP.  OBCs tend to be negative on INC (which historically has built majorities in the past by excluding OBCs) and more so the Dalit based BSP due to OBC viewing Dalits negatively due to their fear that Dalits will encroach on their social superiority.

Dalits tends to support BSP as the main Dalit party but could vote for BJP or INC as THE Upper Caste party as a way to try to rally around Upper Castes who can help raise their social profile against the OBCs which try to exclude them.

Muslims tend to be for SP but could vote INC or BSP as a way to block the Hindu nationalist BJP from winning.  The ideal scenario for Muslims would be for one non-BJP party to exist so they can vote for it.  As it is the non-BJP vote is split between SP BSP and INC which makes it difficult for them to tactically vote.

So the order of preference for each community are

Upper Castes:  BJP, INC, BSP, SP
OBC: SP, BJP, INC, BSP
Dalits: BSP, BJP, INC, SP
Muslims: SP, INC, BSP, BJP

Of course there will be tactical voting so sometimes the votes shares per community might not match the sequence above exactly due to the need to defeat the main enemy (BJP for Muslims, SP or BSP for Upper Caste, and SP or RLD for Dalits)

Jats which a wealthy OBC caste in Western UP tend to vote RLD but will go with BJP during communal conflicts.  Jats tends to be hostile to Dalits so RLD will and ally with BJP SP or INC but never BSP.

Kurmi which is a lower OBC caste tend to vote AD which split from the BSP back in the 1990s due its objection to the promotion of Mayawati to the head of BSP and her Dalit focused line.



Is a chart of community voting in the 2007 and 2012 UP assembly elections

Rajputs and Brahmins are the main Upper Castes.  Jadav and  Balmiki are the main Dalit castes.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2016, 05:59:57 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2016, 08:08:55 am »
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One can see UP in terms of  4 major regions



Avadh Pradesh, Bundelkhand, Paschim Pradesh, and Purvanchal.

Paschim Pradesh where RLD is a factor but BSP has significant strength.  If the Jat votes goes with RLD and not BJP then BSP tends to do well and if Jat vote goes BJP then BJP does well.

Bundelkhand is where INC is strong along with BSP but the region is trending BJP.

Purvanchal is very strong for BJP but also strong for SP as well.

Avadh Pradesh tends to be evenly divided between BJP BSP and SP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2016, 10:17:24 am »
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The story of UP politics since the 1990s is a story of the rise, decline, fall and then revival of the BJP.

INC domination of UP politics came to an end in the late 1980s with the rise of the BJP which took away the INC Upper Caste vote, BSP that took away the INC Dalit vote and SP that consolidated the OBC vote. Communal tensions between Hindus and Muslims in the early 1990s meant that the Upper Caste and OBC vote consolidated around the BJP giving it a clear lead in a 4 party system (BJP SP BSP INC) and abnormally large number of seats.

The 1998 LS election is an example of BJP domination over a splintered opposition and a good place to start the story of UP politics

UP 1998 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                55                 36.95%     (SAP which is proto-JD(U) was part of BJP+)

INC+        80                  0                   6.36%     (BKKP which is proto-RLD was part of INC+)

SP+          80                21                29.98%

BSP          80                  4                 21.05%

AD            45                 0                   0.97%

INC+ was at its nadir and BKKP was not able to keep its Jat base from voting BJP+.  SP and BSP were able to keep their OBC and Dalit base intact.  BJP+ as a result won a huge number of seats with its ~35% vote base.  But as memories of communal conflict from the early 1990s resides the seeds of future BJP+ defeat is on the horizon.  The BJP+ ~35% vote is based on Upper Caste and some of the non-Yadav OBC vote.  To make grow its OBC base the BJP had to appoint Kalyan Singh who has a OBC background as CM.  This is causing resentment among the BJP core Upper Caste base at being sidelined.  Kalyan Singh OBC based faction also feels that they are not getting their fair share of power within the BJP hierarchy.  All this will come out in the midterm 1999 LS election.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2016, 06:00:53 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2016, 10:27:15 am »
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UP 1999 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                28                 29.87%  (JD(U) and INC splinter ABLTC was part of BJP+)

INC+        80                11                 15.89%  (RLD was part of INC+)

SP+          80                27                25.15%

BSP          80                14                 22.30%

AD            44                 0                   1.61%

The midterm LS election came about when Sonia Gandhi came out to lead INC and allied with BJP+ ally AIADMK to bring down the NDA government,.  SP failed to back Sonia Gandhi in an alternative government formation so there was some Muslim resentment against SP for not backing a non-BJP government at the center.   As a result some Muslim votes swung from SP+ to INC+.  This plus a general groundswell for INC+ due to Sonia Gandhi gave some of the Upper Caste vote a chance to  swing from BJP+ to back a now viable INC+  By the late 1990s the part of the Upper Caste went with BJP to block SP and BSP.  Now that INC+ is on the upswing the part of the Upper Caste vote also went from BJP+ to INC+.   Also BJP OBC leader and UP CM Kalyan Singh feeling that he OBC bloc is not getting their fair share of power also did not cooperate with the BJP+ on the ground.

The result was the BJP+ lost a bunch of seats as its vote share fell to ~30% which put it below the threshold for SP and BSP even as SP lost Muslim support to INC+.  INC+ vaulted to 11 seats from zero in 1998.

Even though BJP+ won the 1999 LS election nationally the trend in UP was clearly negative for BJP+ plus tension with Kalyan Singh would soon lead to Kalyan Singh bolting the BJP+ to form his own OBC based BJP rebel party RKP.  All this would come to a head in the 2002 UP Assembly election where the BJP+ government will lose power.
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jaichind
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« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2016, 10:47:33 am »
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UP 2002 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+        403             113                 25.13%  (JD(U), INC splinter ABLTC, and RLD are part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        7                   5.06%  (mostly BJP OBC splinter RKP)

INC+       403               25                  8.97%  

INC rebel                        1                  0.30%

SP+        403              147                25.94%

BSP         403              99                 23.12%

BSP rebel                       1                   0.38%

AD          227                3                   2.16%

NLP        130                1                   0.71%

RPD         61                 1                   0.44%

BJP+ saw a split after 1999 where its OBC leader Kalyan Singh bolted from BJP and formed a OBC based RKP. RKP actually formed a de facto alliance with SP but in the end ran separately from SP.  BJP+ seeing the danger quickly roped in RLD from INC+ bloc.  But it was no avail as it was reduced to 113 seats of which only 88 belonged to BJP.  Sonia Gandhi's superstar power did not extend to UP assembly elections and with the defection of RLD,  INC+ vote share fell to ~9%.  SP+ and BSP mostly kept their vote base but gaine a lot of seats from the fall of BJP+.  The result was a hung assembly.  After a bunch of horse-trading, a BSP-BJP government was formed with BSP leader Mayawati as CM.  This merely added to the resentment in the BJP base as the BJP played second fiddle as BJP+ continue to lose support.  Then in 2003 the BSP-BJP alliance fell apart with a large number of BSP MLAs defecting to SP which gave the SP a majority and allowed SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav to become CM.  

As the 2004 LS election came the BJP+ was seen as doing well nationally and it was thought that BJP+ could at least maintain its ground  if not gain from its 1999 results especially after BJP was able to rope back in Kalyan Singh to rejoin BJP and wind up his RKP.  As it turned out the BJP Upper Caste - OBC conflict was not resolved by Kalyan Singh returning to BJP and the loss of its base accelerated from its 2002-2003 alliance with BSP.  Lastly RLD defected from BJP+ to join up with SP for 2004 LS elections also hurt the BJP+ in Western UP.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2016, 02:26:21 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2016, 11:13:25 am »
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Damn, I don't get Indian politics.
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2016, 11:14:29 am »
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UP 2004 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                11                 22.97%  (JD(U) was part of BJP+)

INC+        79                  9                12.53%  

INC rebel                        1                  0.54%

SP+          79                39                31.73%  (RLD was part of SP+)

BSP          80                19                 22.30%

SBSP        13                  0                   0.49%  (SBSP is a BSP splinter)

AD            57                 0                   1.36%

NLP            7                 1                   0.60%



SP+ with it RLD ally clearly had the upper hand as it recovered some of the Muslim vote from INC+ and captured OBC votes from BJP+. BSP held together and retained its vote based despite its ill fated alliance with BJP.  BJP+ continued to lose ground.  INC+ showed that it has revived from the nadir of the mid 1990s but there was a cap on its vote share even with Sonia Gandhi at the helm as SP has recaptured Muslim votes as THE anti-BJP party.

Both the BJP and INC had high hopes in the next roll of the dice for the 2007 assembly elections.  Both figured that anti-incumbency would weigh down on SP and that they would benefit.  It turns out not to be the case.  BSP won a march on both by a creative outreach to Upper Caste voters to create a Dalit-Upper Caste alliance behind BSP to counter the OBC based SP.  This actually polarized the vote between SP+ and BSP to the detriment of INC+ and BJP+ in 2007.    Worst for BJP, after its defeat in the 2004 UP LS election Kalyan Singh split from BJP again and recreated RKP.  BJP+ decided to rope in AD to try to counter these trends but it is to no avail.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2016, 08:50:05 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2016, 11:26:05 am »
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UP 2007 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+        403               52                18.39%  (JD(U) and AD are part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        2                   0.82%  (includes RKP)

INC+       403               22                  8.68%  

INC rebel                        2                  0.46%

SP+        403              101               26.23%  (INC splinter ABLTC was part of SP+)

SP rebel                         2                  0.57%

BSP         403             206               30.40%

BSP rebel                       1                   0.44%

SBSP        97                 0                   0.94%   (SBSP is a BSP splinter)

RLD        227              10                   3.70%

RPD         14                2                    0.20%

JM         119                1                    0.60%

UPUDF    54                1                     0.35%

RSP       122                1                    0.26%



BSP won a majority on the back of an unlikely Dalit-Upper Caste alliance.  SP+ and INC+ kept their vote base but lost seats as BSP vote share surged to ~30%.  BJP+ lost more ground in terms of Upper Caste vote lost and fell it a record low of 52 seats.  In many ways this is an election where it was the BJP's turn to win but instead they fell further behind. This would seem to indicate that the revival of the BJP will take a long time.  As the 2009 LS election approached BJP OBC rebel Kalyan Singh decide to align with SP directly as SP was looking to expand into BJP's OBC vote base.   This seems to have provoked the SP Muslim base to defect to INC.  BJP in response also roped in RLD into its bloc for the 2009 LS elections.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2017, 07:45:12 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2016, 01:48:53 pm »
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UP 2009 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                15                21.97%  (JD(U) and RLD was part of BJP+)

INC+        78                21                19.05%  (MD is part of INC+)

SP+          76                24                23.87%  

BSP          80                20                 27.55%

SBSP        16                  0                   0.55%  (SBSP is a BSP splinter)

AD            30                 0                   0.98%

PECP         20                 0                   0.98%



In terms of seats it was pretty much a 4 way split with the BJP+ being the weakest of the four blocs but doing better than INC+ in terms of vote share.  SP lost Muslim votes to INC+ and BSP but gained OBC votes from BJP+.  Despite roping in RLD, BJP+ continue to lose vote share and only gained seats as SP weakened.  INC+ was the big gainer as it was able to win Upper Caste votes from BJP+ and Muslim votes from SP+.  BSP was able to corner the vast majority of Dalit votes and gained Upper Caste votes from BJP+ and some Muslim votes from SP even as it did not gain as much in terms of seats.  INC+'s support tends to be more unevenly distributed which gave it an edge over BSP in terms of seats even as it was significantly behind BSP in terms of votes.  PECP which is a Muslim based party also emerged on the scene and captured almost 1% of the vote by running in areas of high Muslim concentration.

As the 2012 Assembly election approached the INC+ feel that it could ride is 2009 performance into at least 3rd place in UP and form the basis of coming back to power in UP eventually.  INC+ roped in RLD from BJP+ in this effort. PECP was also trying to expand its base by roping in AD into an alliance for 2012 assembly elections.   Both BJP and SP also felt it was their turn to come back to power.    But the BJP's decline continued and there was a risk of BJP+ being pushed to 4th by INC+.  Even JD(U) decided to abandon BJP and go on its own.  And of course BJP's old nemesis Kalyan Singh this time created JKP which again will be a BJP OBC splinter and split the BJP vote.

« Last Edit: December 31, 2016, 01:38:25 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2016, 10:13:52 pm »
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UP 2012 Assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+        403               47                15.16%  

BJP rebel                        1                   1.58%  (includes JKP)

INC+       403               38                14.01%  (RLD was part of INC+)
 
SP+        403             226                 29.39%  

SP rebel                         2                  0.85%  (includes SP splinter RLM)

BSP         403              80                 25.91%

QED+       95                2                    1.18% (SBSP was part of QED+, both are BSP splinters)
 
PECP+    317                 5                  3.30% (AD was part of PECP+)

MD            74                0                   0.92%

NCP        127                1                   0.33%

IEMC       18                 1                    0.25%



SP which captured part of the BJP+ OBC base won a majority even while BSP kept its Dalit base intact.  INC+ failed in its attempt to break into the top tier despite a concerted effort by Rahul Gandhi and an alliance with RLD.  After this defeat the INC+ fortunes in UP began to head downward.  BJP also lost ground and was down to ~15% which is a huge drop from ~35% in 1998 LS election.  But just when things look dark for BJP, revival was around the corner.  The elevation of Modi to the BJP leadership in 2013 led to a surge in support for BJP in UP as elsewhere.  Modi who has a OBC background was able to lure Kalyan Singh back into the fold and unite the Upper Caste and OBC factions of the BJP.  Modi's economic growth program was also able to attract Dalit votes away from BSP.  Modi also arranged to rope in AD into an alliance to capture the Kurmi vote.  So when the 2014 LS elections took place it was a perfect storm of a Hindu consolidation for BJP that also attracted Dalit votes, INC+ down on its luck and worn down by anti-incumbency at the center  and SP facing anti-incumbency at the state level.  The UP 2014 LS election would be a tidal wave like no other in UP since the 1984 INC and 1977 JNP tidal waves.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2016, 01:39:32 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2016, 10:20:31 pm »
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UP 2014 LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share

BJP+         80                73                43.64%  (AD was part of BJP+)

INC+        78                  2                  8.41%   (RLD and MD was part of INC+)

SP+          76                  5                 22.35%

BSP          80                  0                 19.77%

QED+      27                  0                   0.60%   (SBSP was part of QED+, both are BSP splinters)

AAP          76                  0                   1.02%

PECP        42                  0                   0.62%



BJP-AD won pretty much all seats up for grabs.  INC and SP could only win family pocket boroughs and BSP got wiped out.  The Hindu consolidation helped the BJP+ to capture the Upper Caste vote from INC+ and BSP and also took in a good part of the Dalit vote from BSP.  The Muslim vote was splinted but most of it did go to SP+ which managed keep its core vote base intact.  SP+ lost seats mostly because of the massive vote lead by the BJP+.  BSP kept its core Dalit base but was wiped out in terms of seats while the INC+ lost pretty much its entire Upper Caste vote base to BJP and was reduced to levels last seen in the late 1990s.

The BJP+ surge was in part based on several one-off factors several of which might not be valid in a 2017 UP Assembly election.  But for sure BJP+ is in a strong position for 2017 based on the 2014 LS election results.

« Last Edit: December 31, 2016, 12:37:57 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2016, 02:27:34 pm »
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For the upcoming 2017 assembly elections it seems that INC is not recovering from the 2014 blow, SP is hurt by anti-incumbency and infighting, and BJP still has some momentum from 2014.  The election should shape up to be BJP vs BSP, or certainly that is how BSP like to frame it.  BJP prefers it to be a 3 way battle between BJP BSP and SP so the Mulsim vote is split.

In 2002 it was a 3 way battle between SP BSP and BJP.  In 2007 and 2012 it was SP vs BSP. 

Given the SP is in big trouble  due to its internal split while the INC shows no sign of life, there is are now talk of a SP-INC alliance to stay relevant.  Rumors are that talks are taking place and that INC will want 100 out or 403 seats from SP who is only willing to part with around 50.  A alliance is unlikely to take place in my view much to the relief of BSP.  The reason why has to do with game theory.

Let's look at the strategies of each of the four parties: BJP SP BSP INC

BJP has in theory the largest base: Upper Castes and non-Yadav OBCs plus a chance to capture some Dalit votes. Main BJP issue is how to balance between the Upper Caste and OBC factions within BJP.  Not projecting a CM candidate is the best way to keep this balance.  If the BJP is too biased in favor of Upper Castes then SP will come in and take the OBC vote.  If the BSP is too biased in favor of OBCs then INC will come in and take the Upper Caste vote. 

SP's strategy is to hold on the Yadav vote to show Muslims that it is THE non-BJP alternative and pull in the Muslim vote.  Then with Yadav-Muslim vote base locked up go after the rest of the OBC vote.

BSP's strategy is to hold on to the Dalit vote and then see if it can peal off Upper Caste votes from BJP or peal off Muslim vote from INC and SP by presenting itself as THE non-BJP alternative.  Of course it has to be careful as a very harsh anti-BJP campaign might turn off Upper Caste votes it needs to win.

INC strategy is to capture a good chunk of Upper Caste or Muslim votes to project relevance in the election.  Use that relevance to capture the other Community and try to pull in Dalit votes as a major player.  At this stage Muslims are not convinced that INC is relevant so they would not waste their votes on INC unless they see Upper Caste votes going to INC.  In 1999 LS and 2009 LS elections the Muslim vote drifted to INC first because in 1999 SP failed to back Sonia Gandhi's attempt to form an non-BJP government at the center angering in UP Muslims and in 2009 SP allied with ex-BJP UP CM Kalyan Singh which also angered UP Muslim voters.  No such situation is taking place now and if anything Muslim vote could drift to BSP.  So the INC this time around has no choice to go after the Upper Caste vote and try to win it from the BJP.

So this is why the INC cannot ally with SP.  Once INC allies with SP, then the Upper Caste which are suspicious of the OBC based SP will for sure go back to BJP.  The BJP, now having Upper Caste votes locked up, will push a pro-OBC agenda and capture enough non-Yadav OBC vote from SP and win the election easy.  And the INC will lose any credibility to go after the Upper Caste vote in future UP elections.

A SP-BSP alliance is also unlikely since Dalits and OBCs are hostile to each other so such an alliance will fail on the ground.

So net net, SP-INC alliance most likely will not take place.  An isolated and weakened SP would mean that it will be BJP vs BSP.  Muslim vote will then go to BSP to stop BJP and make race of it.  Anything else means a easy BJP win.  This scenario still has BJP with the upper hand but with BSP having a chance to hold BJP to below a majority.
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2016, 02:36:48 pm »
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Some UP polls

The Oct India Today poll has





Which has

BJP      31%   170-183
BSP     28%   115-124
SP       25%     94-103
INC       6%       8-12

Of course the same poll has



BSP and SP as having the leading candidates for CM.  This is BJP's weakness.  The BJP inability to project a CM candidate because of the need to balance the OBC and Upper Caste factions means that if the election become personalized the BJP loses out to BSP and SP.

Note this poll was done before the SP civil war.  Most likely one has to subtract 5%-7% vote share from SP in this poll and distribute it evenly between BJP and BSP.

The same poll but with caste vote breakdown



Shows BJP domination of Upper caste and a plurality of non-Yadav OBC.  Shows SP dominate for Yadavs and Muslims and also shows BSP strong with Dalits.  Shows INC is going nowhere in getting the Upper Caste vote which is its only lifeline for survival.   Of course one thing it does show is that the Dalit vote that the BJP captured from BSP in the 2014 LS election has mostly gone back to BSP although it is still strong with non-Yadav OBC.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 02:51:53 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2016, 02:46:31 pm »
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A more recent poll done in Dec after the outbreak of the SP civil war by Infopiper shows a much bigger lead for BJP





BJP    33%    224
BSP   27%      84
SP     22%      72
INC      8%      11

Note the fact that the BJP-BSP spread going from 3% to 6% in this poll relative to the India-Today poll leads to a surge of seats for BJP.

In multi-corned UP, the front that gets above 30% with a lead over 5% second place always wins in a landslide and a absolute majority.  That used to be BJP for LS elections until 2002.  It was BSP in 2007 and SP in 2012.  Now it is BJP again in 2017.

As I pointed out before, if SP-INC form an alliance such an alliance will NOT win 22%+8%.  At least 3%-4% of such an union (from Upper Caste and OBC) will most likely flow to BJP giving the BJP an even bigger win.  Only way to stop BJP looking at this polls is for the SP Muslim base to go over to BSP to try to stop BJP from winning a majority. 
 
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 02:58:07 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2016, 03:07:39 pm »
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i know i am not nearly interested enough in indian politics between elections but seeing the lvel of decline of the INC is just breathtaking.
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« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2016, 03:34:19 pm »
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i know i am not nearly interested enough in indian politics between elections but seeing the lvel of decline of the INC is just breathtaking.

Yes, the fall for INC from 2009-now is quite large and mostly to the benefit of the BJP.  But we should not overstate it.  INC and BJP always overperform in LS elections while BSP and SP always overperform in Assembly elections.   This makes sense since INC and BJP are national parties while BSP and SP are UP regional parties (in de facto terms.) So when INC+ gets 19% in the 2009 LS election it was always not realistic to expect it to win 19% in an  UP assembly election.  In 2002 and 2007 INC only got around 9% in UP Assembly elections.  Now it is polling around 6%-8% which is bad but not that terrible relative to 2002 and 2007.  Remember in 1998 LS election during the INC nadir it only won ~6% of the vote.  Taken in that context INC is weaker than it ever was since 1999 but is still a bit better than 1998.

But the macro story is that since 2013 BJP has taken over as the natural party of governance in India and natural party to maintain national unity from INC.  INC has to either reverse this or  become a large regional party in several states with alliance with other regional forces to counter BJP, a role BJP played in the 1990s against INC.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2016, 03:47:33 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: December 22, 2016, 07:35:42 am »
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SP is not the only party with a family based civil war in UP.  The same is taking place in AD which is actually a pretty funny story.  AD or Apna Dal was founded in 1995 by BSP leader Sone Lal Patel



Sone Lal Patel who from the OBC Kurmi caste was a founder of BSP but split from BSP when Mayawati took BSP in Dalit focused direction back in the early 1990s.  AD has allied with BJP from time to time but mostly ran on its own and has managed to build up a voting base of 1%-2%.

Sone Lal Patel died in a car accident in 2009 and as a result his wife Krishna Patel took over the leadership of AD



For 2012 UP Assembly election Krishna Patel took AD into an alliance with PECP and won one seat in the form of Anupriya Patel who is the daughter of Sone Lal Patel  and Krishna Patel.



Then for 2014 LS elections Anupriya Patel pushed for and helped negotiated an alliance with BJP which lead to a smashing victory in UP.  AD won 2 LS seats one of which was won by Anupriya Patel.  This left Anupriya Patel's UP assembly seat open.  This is where all the trouble began.

Anupriya Patel wanted her husband to run for the seat she is vacating on the AD ticket.  Krishna Patel, AD president and mother of Anupriya Patel wanted to run for that assembly seat herself.  After a bruising family internal battle AD nominated Krishna Patel for the by-election.  It seems the Anupriya Patel faction of the AD did not totally work for her mother and Krishna Patel lost the by-election to the SP candidate.   In anger  Krishna Patel expelled Anupriya Patel  and her husband from AD. Anupriya Patel refused to accept this and insisted that she was the true leader of AD which had the de facto backing of the BJP.  As a result Anupriya Patel is now leading a pro-BJP faction of the AD while the official AD led by Krishna Patel has broken with the BJP.

After a year of sniping back and forth AD splinter party AD(S) was recently formed  with the blessings of Anupriya Patel in case her battle against her mother to control AD fails.  For the 2017 UP Assembly elections most likely AD(S) will ally with BJP while AD will be part of some unspecified anti-BJP alliance.
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